What would happen to QX if AS was bought out?
 

Hypothetically speaking I’m curious what might happen to QX if Alaska was bought out by say JetBlue, or whoever, or had a merger?

My 8 ball says:

175’s go to SkyWest
Q400’s go to Africa
Pilots go the way of the Compass pilot

Yep.

filler

Hopefully if/when there's another M&A in the industry it involved a regional being absorbed with its wholly owned. I would agree with TeamSasquatch if Skywest could fill those E175 seats. But from the grapevine it seems like they are having issues just as everyone else. With that said, what does Delta/United/American or whoever do with AS if they just buy mainline? There will be huge restructuring that would have to happen unless as all the legacies decided to ditch the ops model for a more point to point style of the lower cost carriers. For this model to continue every regional pilot would need to be consolidated and work as a team for all the big 3. Its impossible, imo regionals will be absorbed and then there's no more scope but just pay rate per seating capacity of aircraft. 76 and less size planes will eventually die off to the 220's and E190/195's of the world. Boeing better get back on that Embraer deal before China decides to take it over.

*Disclaimer* I'm talking out my rear-end

Horizon flying Africa cities to Seattle. Remember, you heard it here first. 🤣

But, with QX’s E175s having an 89k MTOW, that would fall outside of scope clauses other airlines have with OO. They could fly them for AS for now, but if they get their scope clause…

I have seen ex-compass airplanes operated by OO ( Delta colors) 89K MTOW doing just fine.

Because Compass was originally part of Northwest Airlines and was incorporated into Delta scope at the higher MTOW at the time of the merger. But all it would reallly take to bring the aircraft into compliance is paperwork from Embraer derating the MTOW which is relatively cheap and easy.

Nothing a little piece of paper changing the max TO weight wouldn’t fix… (oh and a placard….)

That’s a valid point.

The term “wholly owned” does not exist in the M&A world. Two distinctly different companies. Horizon Air Industries is the corporation that every Horizon employee works for. It is distinctly separate and not in anyway connected to Alaska Airlines inc. . A holding company, Alaska Air Group, owns both corporations. A merger would occur with Alaska Airlines inc. Alaska Air Group could continue to own and run Horizon Air Industries or any other company it chose to purchase. Entirely unlikely but structurally possible.

The only merging at Horizon Air is the merging of the Horizon, Tran states, Compass, and ExpressJet thread.

looks like the Q400’s might end up flying in Africa after all. This thread seems to be predicting the future.

QX would become the regional feeder for Sun Country when they buy AS

Rumor brought up on the ENY thread is Horizon is sitting on a new contract and the “regional industry will be spun on its head”.

LoL cujo’s just trying to start some ****.

Can you elaborate?

From this thread:

​​​​​​​https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/e...ml#post3422428

Just some dude trying to start rumors. Who knows why.

Wow that’s news to me. Can’t wait to see our new contract that we haven’t even been able to start negotiations yet

Preposterous. Horizon doesn't get "nice things".

LOA has been offered.. it's not bad but I would wager a nice nickel that if the pilot group votes no it can and/or will be a lot better. Spun on it's head would be the next offer, this one it 'regional good' but will be below standard very shortly (As usual).

The main provisions include:

(1) Minimum guarantee for all aircraft now 4.2 credit hours per day. The Q400 has had this for a few years. The E175 did NOT, and the jet pilots really wanted it.
(2) Company-provided Health Savings Account contributions increased to pre-COVID levels. The union had a grievance out on this, so it's not really a contractual improvement per se.
(3) Our current 401(k) match of 6% is increased to 8-12%, depending on seniority.
(4) Pay and per diem override for Anchorage trips.
(5) Increased pay override for instructors and check airmen.
(6) Pilots participating in the "Pathways" program are no longer required to hand over all of their employment records to Alaska Air, EXCEPT stuff already required by PRIA.

It's a decent LOA, but hardly a game changer. It will probably pass.

I'm a mid-senior Q400 pilot. The LOA does very little for me, so I will vote "NO". What I really wanted was more money.

Cost of living rising faster than ever. I want to see new wages. It’ll be a NO from me. We can do better.

It doesn’t raise pay or QOL enough to get a yes from me. We live and work in an incredibly expensive area that’s running away from us.

This LOA does zero for me. I’m trying to get out and this is a “retention” LOA. It does nothing to retain me. If it added more days off, higher 401k, pay rates those of JetBlue 190s, I’d consider staying a few years. But it makes me want to get out faster as I’m under the 5 year mark in which the company states they don’t care about keeping pilots in my seniority range.

Why 4.2 min? Why not 5?

You did not mention the DIRECT contribution of 2%. While this doesn't sound like much, it's remarkable at the regional level.

The commuter benefits have improved, but still among the worst in the industry.

When I was on the Dash, I thought 4.2 on the Embraer was just jet pilot whining. The inefficiencies of the E trips is astonishing. 3-4 Deadheads PER TRIP, 30 hour overnights the norm, 11 days off per bid the norm. The days ARE easier than the 4 leg/4 airplane swap/4 hour SEA sit life on the Q, but the overall QOL is worse. 4.2 will help fix the trips.

Based on what I'm hearing, I disagree on the probability of passing. Everybody wanted more money.

2% direct contribution is $2500 a year or less for the majority. Just because it's never been done before at a regional doesn't make it great, and you'd make more money if they let you purchase more than 10% of the employee stock at the discount.... even after taxes. Not trying to retain anyone less than 5 years is asinine. There's plenty of interest out there to keep pilots that don't want to give up their seniority for commuting reasons (although that could be a moot point if all the majors go to positive space commuting), sitting reserve in a city you don't live and/or commute, hell all the QOL issues one faces for a while when moving on to a major. But it appears with no aircraft order there's no reason to try when you have lifers that will fill the seats of the 30 aircraft QX will lose with no replacements.

Is it only 2% DC? If so, that’s HARDLY unheard of at the regional level, at least for modern times.

You must be talking historically. As of today, to my knowledge, there isn't a DC at the regional level, only matching.

I see it on every one of my PSA paychecks, and that’s from our 2013 contract.

Don’t forget you will only get DC if you have at least 5 years at Horizon.

it apparently concerned AAG management enough though didn’t it.

the clandestine rumor mill had yours much better than what’s posted here.

anyway, a rising tide lifts all boats.

tell your NC to get back to work.

Horizon was concerned because of AAG's ties to American which leaked what their wholly owned was about to drop. What's head scratching is QX trying to get our LOA out and done when they knew all these other 'better' offers at other regionals was going to be released right before we had the vote. IMO this kills QX. They can't match the recently released offers because of the aircraft drawdown situation... they openly said the intent is to not retain pilots less than 5 years and need the majority of them to move on with the reduction in fleet, but they need to retain the lifers and anyone over 5 years thinking about staying longer (Check pilots) so they can eventually rebuild. QX pilot group votes No and then what? Match the market and hope the less than 5 years pilots leave so a lot of money isn't burned? Management might have one more offer but would be surprised if they matched what's out there now unless they specifically gave huge bonuses to pilots >5 years.

After talking to some of my coworkers and watching the union's road shows, I'm convinced that I made the right choice in voting "NO". Many of the provisions in the LOA don't go into effect until 2023. In particular, the 4.2 credit hour guarantee for the jet becomes effective on September 1, 2023. The company's basically saying "Help us through the summer and the holiday flying season, and we'll maybe pay you later". This isn't a LOA - it's an IOU.

big NO from me

** Help us through TWO summers

Yes, it's an IOU that I feel is going to have a 75% or more NO on it

3% at Air Wisconsin. Plus another 5% match. If you toss in 8 of your own, you’re doing 16% Now, lots of other stuff wrong with Whiskey, but there’s that…

Pay shortage
 

I think they realize that the only reason to vote yes is if you are planning on staying until 2023 when 4.2 would kick in. So I think management was hoping for around a 60% yes vote and that would reassure them that roughly 60% of our pilots want to stick around until 2023.

I'm hoping that the 90% no vote in making them think more reasonably about the pilot pay shortage.