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Old 11-18-2017, 03:44 PM
  #221  
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Originally Posted by CaptCoolHand View Post
Sometimes no means yes.... but you have to be sure!


No means yes.... yes means... oh never mind. Forget that in light of the last month.


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Old 11-18-2017, 04:19 PM
  #222  
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As I see it, one challenge for JB going forward is continued differentiation as other LCCs expand. Frontier, Spirit, SWA and the other legacies are all expanding with new airplanes. No doubt MINT is awesome and distinctive - but it is used primarily on longer flights which makes sense because transcon is always very competitive. Would love to see JB use MINT on A321 LRs across the Pond someday...

The question becomes, can JB continue to differentiate its product on shorter/medium flights? With increasing LCC competition and the growth of regional E175/CR9 fleets, both differentiation and fuel efficiency are now much more important. The current E190 has a high CASM, the interior seems like a regional for many passengers, and it is not flexible from a range perspective. Clearly something new is required so that JB can pursue growth opportunities while managing CASM to a lower level.

When comparing the E2 to the CS100/300, the CSeries is the clear winner on multiple fronts. The E2 is basically an E195 with new GTF engines, a revamped wing and an updated cockpit (and you get to keep the ram horns). Range is improved vs the E195, but the CS100 flies 600 miles further (and the CS300 even further) and the ergonomics on the CSeries are far superior - not even close. You do not feel like you are riding in a regional jet in the CSeries. 2X3 seating, huge windows for better light, more seat space and huge bins. Everything is updated for the pax in a clean sheet design - and JB should want to offer that type of inflight experience (especially for higher margin business travelers) to help differentiate from Airbus and Boeing operators like Spirit, Frontier and SWA on competitive routes. Providing a great inflight product on a super-efficient and range-flexible airplane should be the goal.

And the CSeries is a tough and flexible airplane capable of flying short, medium or longer flights. Evidently, SWISS will fly the CS100 up to 12 sectors a day (mainly shorter hops with a few medium haul flights mixed in). Air Baltic just started flying it's CS300s on 6 hour flights from Riga to Abu Dhabi. These airplanes provide route planners with "optionality" to chase higher margin routes. With tremendous flexibility in terms of performance (CS100 is used by SWISS to serve London City with its short runway), think about how JB could use a fuel efficient and flexible airplane like the CSeries - shuttle flights around the NE and then a transcon to from BOS to Palm Springs or SNA. The CSeries could also be used on routes with little-to-no competition - thus increasing margins.

From a pilot's perspective (not that Robin or management gives a DANG - not even a consideration), I have spoken with several SWISS pilots via other forums and they LOVE the CSeries. Super comfortable cockpit designed by pilots for pilots. Easy to use sidesticks (more tactile and responsive feel than Airbus sidestick from SWISS pilots who have flown both), tray table for food and the advanced Collins ProLine Fusion package that you find on the latest Bizjets. SWISS also flies both the CS100 and CS300 with dual HUDs - something the current JB E190 pilots will appreciate.

Who knows what will happen regarding a replacement aircraft? No doubt JB is playing both Embraer and Bombardier against each other for better pricing - classic negotiating. The E2 is an improvement over the E190, but the CSeries is a clean sheet design that has already proven popular with its initial operators. Korean Air will start CS300 operations at the beginning of 2018 and recent orders from another unknown European operator and Egypt Air (replacing E170s with CS300s) means more operators and more feedback.

Would love to see a CSeries in JB colors in the future. It makes a lot of sense when you consider what is really important beyond just unit price (CASM, passenger comfort and route flexibility) - but you never know with these types of competitive negotiations...

And NO, I don't work for Bombardier. I've flown several of their products and I am tired of the lack of innovation from Boeing, Airbus and Embraer...

Last edited by David Puddy; 11-18-2017 at 04:51 PM.
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Old 11-18-2017, 08:08 PM
  #223  
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Originally Posted by David Puddy View Post
As I see it, one challenge for JB going forward is continued differentiation as other LCCs expand. Frontier, Spirit, SWA and the other legacies are all expanding with new airplanes. No doubt MINT is awesome and distinctive - but it is used primarily on longer flights which makes sense because transcon is always very competitive. Would love to see JB use MINT on A321 LRs across the Pond someday...

The question becomes, can JB continue to differentiate its product on shorter/medium flights? With increasing LCC competition and the growth of regional E175/CR9 fleets, both differentiation and fuel efficiency are now much more important. The current E190 has a high CASM, the interior seems like a regional for many passengers, and it is not flexible from a range perspective. Clearly something new is required so that JB can pursue growth opportunities while managing CASM to a lower level.

When comparing the E2 to the CS100/300, the CSeries is the clear winner on multiple fronts. The E2 is basically an E195 with new GTF engines, a revamped wing and an updated cockpit (and you get to keep the ram horns). Range is improved vs the E195, but the CS100 flies 600 miles further (and the CS300 even further) and the ergonomics on the CSeries are far superior - not even close. You do not feel like you are riding in a regional jet in the CSeries. 2X3 seating, huge windows for better light, more seat space and huge bins. Everything is updated for the pax in a clean sheet design - and JB should want to offer that type of inflight experience (especially for higher margin business travelers) to help differentiate from Airbus and Boeing operators like Spirit, Frontier and SWA on competitive routes. Providing a great inflight product on a super-efficient and range-flexible airplane should be the goal.

And the CSeries is a tough and flexible airplane capable of flying short, medium or longer flights. Evidently, SWISS will fly the CS100 up to 12 sectors a day (mainly shorter hops with a few medium haul flights mixed in). Air Baltic just started flying it's CS300s on 6 hour flights from Riga to Abu Dhabi. These airplanes provide route planners with "optionality" to chase higher margin routes. With tremendous flexibility in terms of performance (CS100 is used by SWISS to serve London City with its short runway), think about how JB could use a fuel efficient and flexible airplane like the CSeries - shuttle flights around the NE and then a transcon to from BOS to Palm Springs or SNA. The CSeries could also be used on routes with little-to-no competition - thus increasing margins.

From a pilot's perspective (not that Robin or management gives a DANG - not even a consideration), I have spoken with several SWISS pilots via other forums and they LOVE the CSeries. Super comfortable cockpit designed by pilots for pilots. Easy to use sidesticks (more tactile and responsive feel than Airbus sidestick from SWISS pilots who have flown both), tray table for food and the advanced Collins ProLine Fusion package that you find on the latest Bizjets. SWISS also flies both the CS100 and CS300 with dual HUDs - something the current JB E190 pilots will appreciate.

Who knows what will happen regarding a replacement aircraft? No doubt JB is playing both Embraer and Bombardier against each other for better pricing - classic negotiating. The E2 is an improvement over the E190, but the CSeries is a clean sheet design that has already proven popular with its initial operators. Korean Air will start CS300 operations at the beginning of 2018 and recent orders from another unknown European operator and Egypt Air (replacing E170s with CS300s) means more operators and more feedback.

Would love to see a CSeries in JB colors in the future. It makes a lot of sense when you consider what is really important beyond just unit price (CASM, passenger comfort and route flexibility) - but you never know with these types of competitive negotiations...

And NO, I don't work for Bombardier. I've flown several of their products and I am tired of the lack of innovation from Boeing, Airbus and Embraer...
Wish you'd pitch our elt. Doing it here does nothing
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Old 11-19-2017, 03:37 AM
  #224  
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I think Leadership would prefer a CSeries, but there is some serious question marks in regards to the acquisition costs right now.

Boeing and Embraer have vowed to continue fighting Bombardier/Airbus even with the announcement of making the airplane in Alabama. Knowing how cozy Trump Admin is with Boeing, I would expect a long process. It could still be produced with a tariff. The question is - will JB wait it out?
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Old 11-19-2017, 04:10 AM
  #225  
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Originally Posted by SmitteyB View Post
I think Leadership would prefer a CSeries, but there is some serious question marks in regards to the acquisition costs right now.

Boeing and Embraer have vowed to continue fighting Bombardier/Airbus even with the announcement of making the airplane in Alabama. Knowing how cozy Trump Admin is with Boeing, I would expect a long process. It could still be produced with a tariff. The question is - will JB wait it out?
Good points. Wouldn't Embraer also have to be careful not to be perceived as price dumping? Embraer has to be very careful too regarding the pricing of any cross-border deals.

If Boeing can't prove financial harm in February (even though it doesn't have a competing sub-120 seat product to the CS100 and it offered Delta used Air Canada E190s at the time), the tariffs could go away. It's super political and time will tell.

The bigger concern I have is Pratt & Whitney's continued production challenges pumping out engines. However, I assume that would impact Embraer's E2 operation as well. You may be operating those E190s for a little longer than expected regardless of the replacement choice.
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Old 11-19-2017, 08:48 AM
  #226  
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Not sure exactly how cozy the administration is with Boeing. Considering one of the first things done was crap all over the cost of the new AF1 project.

Puddy do you work here?
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Old 11-19-2017, 11:53 AM
  #227  
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Originally Posted by CaptCoolHand View Post
Not sure exactly how cozy the administration is with Boeing. Considering one of the first things done was crap all over the cost of the new AF1 project.

Puddy do you work here?
Negative. Several friends who do and I was a very frequent flier with JB about 5 years ago when I was commuting more... I am a JB fan!
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Old 11-20-2017, 06:00 AM
  #228  
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Right on man. You give great analysis.
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Old 12-20-2017, 05:27 PM
  #229  
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Trump administration sides with Boeing in Bombardier dispute


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKBN1EE2J4
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Old 12-20-2017, 05:33 PM
  #230  
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Originally Posted by jtrain609 View Post
Trump administration sides with Boeing in Bombardier dispute


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKBN1EE2J4
This was expected. We will see how the feb ruling goes.
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