CaptCoolHand

You’re obviously not accounting for retirements.

TransWorld

I wonder how many attrition (to the big 6, etc.) and retirements (fairly minimal?) they are assuming.

Bluedriver

Hahaha, you're right. THAT'S the difference!

jamesholzhauer

They said at recurrent leadership lunch they are planning about 100 a year for attrition. Planning on hiring 3,000 for a gain of 2,500 pilots on the list over the next 5 years. The only way this math works is if no E190s go. 154 remaining planes to be delivered at 16 pilots per plane is roughly ~2500 IF you don’t subtract 60 E190s. But I would be shocked if we took all our NEOs and 220s on time AND didn’t get rid of any 190s. I could see keeping some 190s for a little while extra for the BOS/FLL/MCO build up since they seem to want to maximize market share there, and perhaps a small fleet beyond that for a few years (say the 30 owned ones) if the numbers make sense. But I am certainly not expecting to see 3,000 people hired by the end of 2024 (I’d love to be wrong) and would bet if we keep E190s beyond the stated 1 for 1 220 deliveries it’ll be a short term move.

FWIW there are 215 retirements between now and the end of 2024. My guess is the 100/yr is a fairly accurate attrition estimate. 2024/25/26 see higher double digit retirements and beyond that is all triple digit, so those attrition numbers will trend upwards towards the end of this referenced period just based on the retirement situation.

Bluedriver

And there's some of the fine-print. Won't be ADDING 3,000 to the list.

I doubt JB keeps many, if any E90s for any extended period of time.

In addition to the deliveries, there is also to be some CBA staffing (maybe) and overstaffing for the inefficiencies of having a small base-within-a-base for LR/XLR in BOS/JFK, the associated 3 man flying for the LR/XLR, the inefficiencies of having 3 fleet types (plus one of those 3 fleet types being new to JB), the possibility of the A220 being a 24 hour airplane vs the E90 not working the night shift.

Well, and the pilot retirements, definitely the massive pilot retirements.

SaintNick

Hence why I said like they want. Just what the leaders said

Herc130AV8R

Any new info on how many new hire classes/students are actually going to start through years end? Thanks. I see some got called for an Oct 9th class. Congrats! Is that the only Oct new hire class?

Flyhayes

From what I know there are classes on:
Oct 23
Nov 13
Dec 4

Bluedriver

Wow. Amazing.

Bluedriver

Now in recurrent they'll be telling people that hiring will be 1,500. Per year. For the next 5 years...