I would hate for someone else’s demise to be anyone’s gain. Hypothetically, if Spirit doesn’t make out on the other end of this how can we within a year enter routes that they exit as was stated in the email. We don’t have the planes and what makes you think the legacy carriers will go in just as aggressively.

I've been struck by the number of times she's said something to the effect of "this will be your airline" in the future. Now, obviously a career pilot will long outlast any given chief executive, and I don't think she's, like, checked out or anything... but I am getting the feeling that she thinks her place is pretty temporary. My conspiracy theory is merger, too, or at least get as much lipstick on us as possible before we go to the ball.

The big X factor now is what happens with Spirit. Whatever their plan was 2 weeks ago, it's probably changed again again. Does Spirit draw down anywhere? Can we pick up planes? Leases? Gates? Bet the supplemental gets pushed out again.

I just read it to mean "this is your fault and don't blame me if things get worse"

Because if this was my airline? Oh boy... y'all though Neeleman had some wild ideas 😂

No.

All vendors including aircraft lessors are being kept whole. There will therefore be no reallocation of aircraft from Spirit to other carriers whether local or international. All currently leased aircraft are staying with Spirit.

I mean, mgmt stated they would be looking for opportunities to aquire "certain assets" from Spirit. I assume they're talking about more than printers and breakroom tables.

As for your fleet comment, who said that? The same guy who said "bankruptcy isn't on the table?"

One thing that's fact is the lessors are being "kept whole"... they own the planes and can take them back anytime lease conditions aren't met. The court cannot change that. BK might get you out of debt, but it doesn't mean you get to keep other people's stuff without paying for it... lessor owns the planes, not NK or the judge.

If NK (or a merged entity) can't or won't make paymants those planes will be available for lease on the market in short order. If the market is hot, the lessor will have little interest in negotiating better terms for NK, and they don't have to. They can just walk, and take their planes with them.

SWA has the cash, but not the cachet.... (FIFY)

Anyone else nervous about this special pocket session to discuss staffing for next year?

I'd be nervous if I was a very junior CA. I dont think we're facing furloughs or anything like that

Agree....If I was bottom 200 or so CA, I would be worried. They're not gonna keep paying hundreds of CAs to sit around. What's the over/under on downgrades? 200 is my guess.

260 net downgrades was the rumor I heard

Very junior captains already knew they were downgrading. The cancelled bid is a temporary reprieve.

And junior captains tend to be relatively senior-ish FO's, so they'll still be getting paid to do nothing, if they so desire.

Nah...they'll go from the VIL world or 3-4 days of flying a month to the world of having to show up 15-16 days a month. And showing up is 90% of the work IMO.

How'd they get April training dates for the new displacement if the effective date is December 2025? Isn't 120 days prior the earliest they can do?

I think that would be advanced displacement training. Volunteer to go early in seniority order

Well there you have it, 343 downgrades.

Sets everyone back, what, 2-3 years? And LAX cut in half.

If you're an FO out west and you can swing it, go to the big 3... or even Alaska!

You shouldn't come here if you're a West Coast guy. I know I've chatted with folks on here looking for an LA base and I've always said that this is not a West Coast airline.

Hell if you're a junior FO, get the hell out of here and go to the big 3. There's no reason to be here if you're junior. Many of us are facing a 2nd, 3rd and 4th downgrade/displacement. It's going to take a decade to hold Captain here. There are 15+ year CAs here barely holding a line. It's sad really, because when I came here it was actually ramping up, upgrades were dropping to a "reasonable" level, we were hiring and showing growth, and then it's all gone to crap the past 3 years.

Staring down a 4th downgrade here in 5 years....

Or even a junior captain. If you don't live in base at this company, b-a-i-l.

I don't think it's bad yet, I actually believe them when they say "we're not Spirit," but... don't commute for this company.

I didn't even realize that was a thing... sorry man. Do you get a friggen upgrade dinner at Outback every time?

I’m thankful to have a job, and get paid the way I do…

but from the moment I’ve taken this job, I feel like I’ve been smacked around harder than a piñata

As I wrote “pessimistically” earlier, as long as the market doesn’t fall apart, there will not be attrition here, there will be exodus.

I'm honestly curious to see what it looks like. 2021/2022 were crazy hiring for the big 3, but that's basically stopped. There's a slowdown and getting hired at Delta and being a WB captain in 6 months is over. There's also actual competition out there again, so I'm wondering if we'll see more experienced/senior guys leave while the 1500hr guys are stuck.

I dont trust management, but I do trust JW. I've gotten the chance to meet him and converse with him and I believe hes on our side. In my seat, I'm theoretically a junior CA even with 9 years here. I will not, and have not been trying to leave. This too shall pass, but man, its been a rough run. Unfortunately, the attrition will be mostly off the bottom.

Ha! I've had a couple dinners, and plenty of epaulets. Yeah, I must be in that seniority bucket that get the shaft. it started in 2019 with the LGB closure and hasnt stopped.

I have heard that the regionals are not even hiring at the bare minimums right now. Have a former student with 1500 hours and she has been talking with a recruiter at an AA WO regional and they told her that she needs to keep building time (especially multi) to be competitive at this point. She has good time, college degree, and all of the other stuff with no failures. Seems like even the regionals have plenty of applicants at the moment.

I had an email conversation with JW. I was legitimately impressed. I say we keep him. 😀

I'm glad you guys like him, but of all the things he told me down at OSC in the past couple years, not only has none of it happened, but frequently the opposite has happened. Between that and this disaster of a bid cycle his department's responsible for, whether or not he personally has anything to do with it, I don't trust him as far as I can throw him, and I could probably throw him all the way across the front yard.

I don't trust management, but I trust JW the most out of the whole group (If that makes sense). I've talked with him and asked him tough questions and he didn't beat around the bush. Just about everything he told me over the past year and a half has come true.

He's very much management, but hasn't forgotten his place on the pilot seniority list. At the end of the day, he does have to answer to WC and above, but he seems to have more rope than the previous VP under Robins leadership.

The Navy would disagree with many of you.

Unless his relationship in the Navy has any affect on how he leads the pilot group, I dont give a sh*t. It's not like a lot of scummy airline pilots haven't done the same thing...

Not applicable.

what happened there?

What’s up with the MEC Merger SLI fund. Are they saying they are trying to bring that back for Jan 2025? Is something up or are they just looking to be proactive for the future, in the event it’s needed.

The lack of a pre-existing merger and SLI fund hindered and delayed the ability to retain legal counsel for the spirit merger. Having it pre-funded to at least pay the first few months of the legal costs could help to speed up the process and help prevent the other airline from getting the first pick of SLI lawyers should another merger occur.

proactive is my guess... but it feels obvious that that's the long term "jetforward" plan.

More pessimism: Are we still dreaming in technicolor that somebody is going to buy us? They could run the same play as Spirit. Just sit back and watch us die. 16 year spirit captains becoming first year FOs is a pretty sweet deal for a business in this business.

The difference being Jetblue has more valuable assets that would go to the highest bidder in a Ch7 liquidation. If you are interested in our slot portfolio (JFK mainly) then waiting til Ch7 would risk competition from other carriers bidding as well.

Who needs the JFK assets the most? I would argue AA. And waiting til Ch7 risks others like UA/WN/F9/etc taking chunks of that.

Will it happen? Probably not, but I don't think it is a crazy scenario to imagine AA making an attempt in the next few years, maybe even a joint bid with BA/IAG taking a 25% stake. Ch7 liquidation is a much less percentage likelihood in my mind.

Nooo I don't think B6 will go away completely but rather shrink into a niche vacation package airline.

We're there already, and have been there since inception really. The west coast experiments have never amounted to much more than a small % of our network. I think what has changed is the narrative from management about their desire long term. We've always been fed the blue juice about 330s to TLV, or even expansion to become a more national competitor, but these have never come close to fruition.

Now, for the first time, mgmt is being realistic and matching the future expectations with our current reality. We have always been an east coast leisure airline, and now that is the end goal for JB. Whether we can have sustainable profitability long term from that remains to be seen. I think it will take an alliance membership at a minimum for that to be possible.

Will someone approach the JB BOD and say "Your expectations of being an east coast leisure airline will provide $X growth for the company but we want to buy JB for $Y because we can make even more of a return with your assets"?