jetBlue Hiring
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2013
Position: FO
Posts: 627
Nope. I was invited to interview in Orlando but I was unable to make it that month and deferred to the next month. The next month was in New York.
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My initial email had all the info for Orlando, but the actual invite to schedule only offered slots in NYC.
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2015
Posts: 183
So here's another question for people on the property. Assuming the A321neos are delivered as currently envisioned, does that keep the average upgrade to the left seat about where it is now for the next few years? I'm assuming that A220s acquisition will be offset by E190s leaving, but will the total fleet growth support math that keeps junior captain upgrades about where they are now (or at least close)?
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2016
Posts: 478
So here's another question for people on the property. Assuming the A321neos are delivered as currently envisioned, does that keep the average upgrade to the left seat about where it is now for the next few years? I'm assuming that A220s acquisition will be offset by E190s leaving, but will the total fleet growth support math that keeps junior captain upgrades about where they are now (or at least close)?
I don't think upgrades will increase much over the next 3 years (as in times getting lower to upgrade). We are growing faster than retirees are leaving.
To put it into perspective for you, we plan to hire 350-400 this year. I'm guessing next year will be about the same. But the numbers retiring are 14/27/31/25/48 for the next five years. And of course, there is a little attrition, but in 2018 less than 70 left outside retirees. So if you figure 350 newhires, and 84 leave this year, earlier upgrades are not going to be a "thing".
Another factor to consider is that we have a pretty substantial number of FOs who have opted not to upgrade. That could remain constant, or change at any point. You would have a better chance at predicting where the next lottery ticket will be purchased than to predict how upgrades will go in the next few years.
Covfefe
Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 3,001
If you look at upgrades they will remain at a similar historical percentage, with some anomalies along the way, as there are typically a percentage of pilots who bypass for QOL/seniority. The 190 plug will probably continue to go at 70-80%, the 320 plug probably 60-70%. So do the math on 85 new planes in the next 6 years, and 15-16 pilots per plane, and figure out percentages on where you are/will be for the next napkin math possibility. The unknown about 190 retirements, and the wildcard of a new fleet and how junior/senior it will go, will probably cause a lot of anomalies over the next few years. But if you got hired in the next few months and were #4,000, it’ll take a while to get to that percentage range of being able to upgrade with as few retirements as there are. Maybe in 6 years someone hired today could hold the plug of the A220? Maybe less if the 190 stays longer. Maybe a lot longer if there is a downturn, more deferrals, earlier returns/sales/parking of 320s, etc. It’s a fool’s errand to really speculate in that much detail though. If I were planning on going to JB this year I would plan on not upgrading for 10 years. If it happened sooner great.
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Position: CRJ Driver
Posts: 187
On the application, when uploading documents towards the end, it asks for LORs, resume, explanation of failures and certificates and licenses.
Did you upload a copy all your certs and documents here? Such as ATP, Medical, FCC Radio, etc?
Just a bit vague.
Thanks
Did you upload a copy all your certs and documents here? Such as ATP, Medical, FCC Radio, etc?
Just a bit vague.
Thanks
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2019
Posts: 315
I did not and still got an invite.
If you look at upgrades they will remain at a similar historical percentage, with some anomalies along the way, as there are typically a percentage of pilots who bypass for QOL/seniority. The 190 plug will probably continue to go at 70-80%, the 320 plug probably 60-70%. So do the math on 85 new planes in the next 6 years, and 15-16 pilots per plane, and figure out percentages on where you are/will be for the next napkin math possibility. The unknown about 190 retirements, and the wildcard of a new fleet and how junior/senior it will go, will probably cause a lot of anomalies over the next few years. But if you got hired in the next few months and were #4,000, it’ll take a while to get to that percentage range of being able to upgrade with as few retirements as there are. Maybe in 6 years someone hired today could hold the plug of the A220? Maybe less if the 190 stays longer. Maybe a lot longer if there is a downturn, more deferrals, earlier returns/sales/parking of 320s, etc. It’s a fool’s errand to really speculate in that much detail though. If I were planning on going to JB this year I would plan on not upgrading for 10 years. If it happened sooner great.
The REAL Bluedriver
Joined APC: Sep 2011
Position: Airbus Capt
Posts: 6,860
If you look at upgrades they will remain at a similar historical percentage, with some anomalies along the way, as there are typically a percentage of pilots who bypass for QOL/seniority. The 190 plug will probably continue to go at 70-80%, the 320 plug probably 60-70%. So do the math on 85 new planes in the next 6 years, and 15-16 pilots per plane, and figure out percentages on where you are/will be for the next napkin math possibility. The unknown about 190 retirements, and the wildcard of a new fleet and how junior/senior it will go, will probably cause a lot of anomalies over the next few years. But if you got hired in the next few months and were #4,000, it’ll take a while to get to that percentage range of being able to upgrade with as few retirements as there are. Maybe in 6 years someone hired today could hold the plug of the A220? Maybe less if the 190 stays longer. Maybe a lot longer if there is a downturn, more deferrals, earlier returns/sales/parking of 320s, etc. It’s a fool’s errand to really speculate in that much detail though. If I were planning on going to JB this year I would plan on not upgrading for 10 years. If it happened sooner great.
So overall I say it goes more senior. With the loss of 75% of OE trips, may not see as many senior bypassers in the future. Also, the E90 is a dying fleet, so I believe even less dudes are interested into upgrading onto it right now, which makes it stay/go so junior.
Couple that with few retirements, as the seniority list gets larger and larger, but the aircraft delivery schedule remains a constant 13-15 hulls a year, the airlines actual hull growth rate as a PERCENTAGE mathematically results in a lower growth rate each year. In others words, as a percentage, JB is constantly slowing it's hull growth rate. That will also result in slower seniority progression with each passing year if the delivery schedule remains a fixed 13-15.
As long as they continue to run upgrades onto the E90 during the transition, you will see some token really low longevity upgrades. After the conversion to the A220 is complete I would expect most upgrades will be 7+ years.
My guess.
Banned
Joined APC: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,473
Good advice and analysis. When the A220 fully/mostly replaces the E90 I don't see the plug remaining in the 70-80% range. I believe the A220 will go more senior. It's pay rate is much closer to A320 pay and there are other characteristics that make the plane more desirable than the E90.
So overall I say it goes more senior. With the loss of 75% of OE trips, may not see as many senior bypassers in the future. Also, the E90 is a dying fleet, so I believe even less dudes are interested into upgrading onto it right now, which makes it stay/go so junior.
Couple that with few retirements, as the seniority list gets larger and larger, but the aircraft delivery schedule remains a constant 13-15 hulls a year, the airlines actual hull growth rate as a PERCENTAGE mathematically results in a lower growth rate each year. In others words, as a percentage, JB is constantly slowing it's hull growth rate. That will also result in slower seniority progression with each passing year if the delivery schedule remains a fixed 13-15.
As long as they continue to run upgrades onto the E90 during the transition, you will see some token really low longevity upgrades. After the conversion to the A220 is complete I would expect most upgrades will be 7+ years.
My guess.
So overall I say it goes more senior. With the loss of 75% of OE trips, may not see as many senior bypassers in the future. Also, the E90 is a dying fleet, so I believe even less dudes are interested into upgrading onto it right now, which makes it stay/go so junior.
Couple that with few retirements, as the seniority list gets larger and larger, but the aircraft delivery schedule remains a constant 13-15 hulls a year, the airlines actual hull growth rate as a PERCENTAGE mathematically results in a lower growth rate each year. In others words, as a percentage, JB is constantly slowing it's hull growth rate. That will also result in slower seniority progression with each passing year if the delivery schedule remains a fixed 13-15.
As long as they continue to run upgrades onto the E90 during the transition, you will see some token really low longevity upgrades. After the conversion to the A220 is complete I would expect most upgrades will be 7+ years.
My guess.
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