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Old 04-12-2019, 05:46 PM
  #11411  
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Originally Posted by RNO Flyer View Post
Random question here, but is there any logic for who interviews in MCO vs NYC? My initial email contact explaining the Phase I/Phase II process said Orlando. If I get invited, should I assume that will stay at MCO?

Nope. I was invited to interview in Orlando but I was unable to make it that month and deferred to the next month. The next month was in New York.


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Old 04-12-2019, 06:31 PM
  #11412  
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Originally Posted by RNO Flyer View Post
Random question here, but is there any logic for who interviews in MCO vs NYC? My initial email contact explaining the Phase I/Phase II process said Orlando. If I get invited, should I assume that will stay at MCO?
My initial email had all the info for Orlando, but the actual invite to schedule only offered slots in NYC.
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Old 04-14-2019, 02:16 PM
  #11413  
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So here's another question for people on the property. Assuming the A321neos are delivered as currently envisioned, does that keep the average upgrade to the left seat about where it is now for the next few years? I'm assuming that A220s acquisition will be offset by E190s leaving, but will the total fleet growth support math that keeps junior captain upgrades about where they are now (or at least close)?
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Old 04-14-2019, 03:58 PM
  #11414  
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Originally Posted by RNO Flyer View Post
So here's another question for people on the property. Assuming the A321neos are delivered as currently envisioned, does that keep the average upgrade to the left seat about where it is now for the next few years? I'm assuming that A220s acquisition will be offset by E190s leaving, but will the total fleet growth support math that keeps junior captain upgrades about where they are now (or at least close)?
I have only been on property for 2 years, so take what I say with a grain of salt.

I don't think upgrades will increase much over the next 3 years (as in times getting lower to upgrade). We are growing faster than retirees are leaving.

To put it into perspective for you, we plan to hire 350-400 this year. I'm guessing next year will be about the same. But the numbers retiring are 14/27/31/25/48 for the next five years. And of course, there is a little attrition, but in 2018 less than 70 left outside retirees. So if you figure 350 newhires, and 84 leave this year, earlier upgrades are not going to be a "thing".

Another factor to consider is that we have a pretty substantial number of FOs who have opted not to upgrade. That could remain constant, or change at any point. You would have a better chance at predicting where the next lottery ticket will be purchased than to predict how upgrades will go in the next few years.
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Old 04-14-2019, 04:12 PM
  #11415  
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If you look at upgrades they will remain at a similar historical percentage, with some anomalies along the way, as there are typically a percentage of pilots who bypass for QOL/seniority. The 190 plug will probably continue to go at 70-80%, the 320 plug probably 60-70%. So do the math on 85 new planes in the next 6 years, and 15-16 pilots per plane, and figure out percentages on where you are/will be for the next napkin math possibility. The unknown about 190 retirements, and the wildcard of a new fleet and how junior/senior it will go, will probably cause a lot of anomalies over the next few years. But if you got hired in the next few months and were #4,000, it’ll take a while to get to that percentage range of being able to upgrade with as few retirements as there are. Maybe in 6 years someone hired today could hold the plug of the A220? Maybe less if the 190 stays longer. Maybe a lot longer if there is a downturn, more deferrals, earlier returns/sales/parking of 320s, etc. It’s a fool’s errand to really speculate in that much detail though. If I were planning on going to JB this year I would plan on not upgrading for 10 years. If it happened sooner great.
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Old 04-14-2019, 05:04 PM
  #11416  
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On the application, when uploading documents towards the end, it asks for LORs, resume, explanation of failures and certificates and licenses.

Did you upload a copy all your certs and documents here? Such as ATP, Medical, FCC Radio, etc?


Just a bit vague.


Thanks
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Old 04-14-2019, 05:15 PM
  #11417  
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Originally Posted by Skyhawk92 View Post
On the application, when uploading documents towards the end, it asks for LORs, resume, explanation of failures and certificates and licenses.

Did you upload a copy all your certs and documents here? Such as ATP, Medical, FCC Radio, etc?


Just a bit vague.


Thanks
I did not and still got an invite.
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Old 04-14-2019, 05:36 PM
  #11418  
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Originally Posted by BeatNavy View Post
If you look at upgrades they will remain at a similar historical percentage, with some anomalies along the way, as there are typically a percentage of pilots who bypass for QOL/seniority. The 190 plug will probably continue to go at 70-80%, the 320 plug probably 60-70%. So do the math on 85 new planes in the next 6 years, and 15-16 pilots per plane, and figure out percentages on where you are/will be for the next napkin math possibility. The unknown about 190 retirements, and the wildcard of a new fleet and how junior/senior it will go, will probably cause a lot of anomalies over the next few years. But if you got hired in the next few months and were #4,000, itíll take a while to get to that percentage range of being able to upgrade with as few retirements as there are. Maybe in 6 years someone hired today could hold the plug of the A220? Maybe less if the 190 stays longer. Maybe a lot longer if there is a downturn, more deferrals, earlier returns/sales/parking of 320s, etc. Itís a foolís errand to really speculate in that much detail though. If I were planning on going to JB this year I would plan on not upgrading for 10 years. If it happened sooner great.
I think this is a good analysis of future upgrades, particularly the relative % for jr CA.
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Old 04-15-2019, 07:09 AM
  #11419  
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Originally Posted by BeatNavy View Post
If you look at upgrades they will remain at a similar historical percentage, with some anomalies along the way, as there are typically a percentage of pilots who bypass for QOL/seniority. The 190 plug will probably continue to go at 70-80%, the 320 plug probably 60-70%. So do the math on 85 new planes in the next 6 years, and 15-16 pilots per plane, and figure out percentages on where you are/will be for the next napkin math possibility. The unknown about 190 retirements, and the wildcard of a new fleet and how junior/senior it will go, will probably cause a lot of anomalies over the next few years. But if you got hired in the next few months and were #4,000, itíll take a while to get to that percentage range of being able to upgrade with as few retirements as there are. Maybe in 6 years someone hired today could hold the plug of the A220? Maybe less if the 190 stays longer. Maybe a lot longer if there is a downturn, more deferrals, earlier returns/sales/parking of 320s, etc. Itís a foolís errand to really speculate in that much detail though. If I were planning on going to JB this year I would plan on not upgrading for 10 years. If it happened sooner great.
Good advice and analysis. When the A220 fully/mostly replaces the E90 I don't see the plug remaining in the 70-80% range. I believe the A220 will go more senior. It's pay rate is much closer to A320 pay and there are other characteristics that make the plane more desirable than the E90.

So overall I say it goes more senior. With the loss of 75% of OE trips, may not see as many senior bypassers in the future. Also, the E90 is a dying fleet, so I believe even less dudes are interested into upgrading onto it right now, which makes it stay/go so junior.

Couple that with few retirements, as the seniority list gets larger and larger, but the aircraft delivery schedule remains a constant 13-15 hulls a year, the airlines actual hull growth rate as a PERCENTAGE mathematically results in a lower growth rate each year. In others words, as a percentage, JB is constantly slowing it's hull growth rate. That will also result in slower seniority progression with each passing year if the delivery schedule remains a fixed 13-15.

As long as they continue to run upgrades onto the E90 during the transition, you will see some token really low longevity upgrades. After the conversion to the A220 is complete I would expect most upgrades will be 7+ years.

My guess.
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Old 04-15-2019, 07:18 AM
  #11420  
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Originally Posted by Bluedriver View Post
Good advice and analysis. When the A220 fully/mostly replaces the E90 I don't see the plug remaining in the 70-80% range. I believe the A220 will go more senior. It's pay rate is much closer to A320 pay and there are other characteristics that make the plane more desirable than the E90.

So overall I say it goes more senior. With the loss of 75% of OE trips, may not see as many senior bypassers in the future. Also, the E90 is a dying fleet, so I believe even less dudes are interested into upgrading onto it right now, which makes it stay/go so junior.

Couple that with few retirements, as the seniority list gets larger and larger, but the aircraft delivery schedule remains a constant 13-15 hulls a year, the airlines actual hull growth rate as a PERCENTAGE mathematically results in a lower growth rate each year. In others words, as a percentage, JB is constantly slowing it's hull growth rate. That will also result in slower seniority progression with each passing year if the delivery schedule remains a fixed 13-15.

As long as they continue to run upgrades onto the E90 during the transition, you will see some token really low longevity upgrades. After the conversion to the A220 is complete I would expect most upgrades will be 7+ years.

My guess.
Is the 320 more then 7 years right now?
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