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Retirements

Old 11-22-2009, 11:05 AM
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Default Retirements

Pilots like to debate future retirements and their effect on aviation but few seem to consider what a wave of boomer retirements means to the rest of the working world.

Industries and professions that have been locked up since the 1970's will begin to see a flood of openings. Once the economy turns around and the boomers feel comfortable letting their jobs go there will be a surge in hiring.

Police, fire, linemen jobs will all start to pop up. Something to consider.

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Old 11-22-2009, 04:22 PM
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Agreed, that retirements on other fields will yield a marginal increase in the aggregate wealth accumulation potential for the younger generations. The effect on 121 ops will however not be as dramatic as most people HOPE it will be.

That said, my beef with the boomers is that by delaying their own retirements they are forcing me to start capitalizing at an older age, therefore sliding my income producing years to the right in ways that all but cement the need for the younger generation to work past 60. The only alternative I would have is accepting a lower quality of life and attempting to retire before 60 regardless of what my economic condition is at the time. Most people will unfortunately default to feeling "forced" to continue working past 60 as they set out their economic expectations on benchmarks of 20th century bubble economics, which will all but disappear from the American landscape circa 2040 (when Gen Y starts reaching the classical definition of retirement age).

It's not looking good for the home team (and I'm not talking about the boomers....), but if you're able to lower your expectations in wealth and retirement, a decent living could still be had in 2040 America. As it stands however, nobody got into the "borrow for education", six figure debt between a degree and a mortgage racket, to end up having to downgrade their life expectations. That is the biggest wildcard in the future deconstruction of our society. I see a lot of bitterness and lashing against boomers once Gen X fully ages and Gen Y starts retiring. Grandma boomer is going to have a rough last decade once she breaks the budget on her medicare and SS while the kids do without mcmansions and toys...and retirements too. That said, I do welcome the departure of the boomers from the workforce, good freggin' riddance and wishes of a Merry early Xmas...
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Old 11-22-2009, 05:14 PM
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Originally Posted by hindsight2020 View Post
Agreed, that retirements on other fields will yield a marginal increase in the aggregate wealth accumulation potential for the younger generations. The effect on 121 ops will however not be as dramatic as most people HOPE it will be.
That said, my beef with the boomers is that by delaying their own retirements they are forcing me to start capitalizing at an older age, therefore sliding my income producing years to the right in ways that all but cement the need for the younger generation to work past 60. The only alternative I would have is accepting a lower quality of life and attempting to retire before 60 regardless of what my economic condition is at the time. Most people will unfortunately default to feeling "forced" to continue working past 60 as they set out their economic expectations on benchmarks of 20th century bubble economics, which will all but disappear from the American landscape circa 2040 (when Gen Y starts reaching the classical definition of retirement age).

It's not looking good for the home team (and I'm not talking about the boomers....), but if you're able to lower your expectations in wealth and retirement, a decent living could still be had in 2040 America. As it stands however, nobody got into the "borrow for education", six figure debt between a degree and a mortgage racket, to end up having to downgrade their life expectations. That is the biggest wildcard in the future deconstruction of our society. I see a lot of bitterness and lashing against boomers once Gen X fully ages and Gen Y starts retiring. Grandma boomer is going to have a rough last decade once she breaks the budget on her medicare and SS while the kids do without mcmansions and toys...and retirements too. That said, I do welcome the departure of the boomers from the workforce, good freggin' riddance and wishes of a Merry early Xmas...
Have you seen the upcoming retirement numbers in the next 10 years for the majors? It is a known FACT that the numbers WILL be dramatic. Look for yourself, there's even a thread on this site that breaks them down per company and total.
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Old 11-23-2009, 07:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Superpilot92 View Post
Have you seen the upcoming retirement numbers in the next 10 years for the majors? It is a known FACT that the numbers WILL be dramatic. Look for yourself, there's even a thread on this site that breaks them down per company and total.
This sounds nice and dandy but it still does not give anyone better pay or job security. The shortage will be counteracted with regional replacing the majors. 10 years from now there won't be any "majors". What Republic is doing is just the beginning and something tells me that Delta management is watching very closely. The secret is out: pilots will fly 100 people for 30K a year! 10 years from now your Major job will be replaced by another regional...
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Old 11-23-2009, 08:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Rascal View Post
This sounds nice and dandy but it still does not give anyone better pay or job security. The shortage will be counteracted with regional replacing the majors. 10 years from now there won't be any "majors". What Republic is doing is just the beginning and something tells me that Delta management is watching very closely. The secret is out: pilots will fly 100 people for 30K a year! 10 years from now your Major job will be replaced by another regional...
yeah and the worlds going to end in 2012.....
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Old 11-24-2009, 11:34 AM
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Originally Posted by Rascal View Post
This sounds nice and dandy but it still does not give anyone better pay or job security. The shortage will be counteracted with regional replacing the majors. 10 years from now there won't be any "majors". What Republic is doing is just the beginning and something tells me that Delta management is watching very closely. The secret is out: pilots will fly 100 people for 30K a year! 10 years from now your Major job will be replaced by another regional...
Bingo. What the "retirements are coming" crowd needs to get through their thick skull is the less than one-for-one job replacement at the majors. People need to understand that just looking at numbers and ASSUMING replacements are one-for-one is no less wishful thinking than the kid dropping six figure debt for a zero to hero "4 year adventure" program at Purdue. Retirement numbers will be gobbled up by capacity constriction and scope relaxation. Meaning that steady-state, there will be a bunch of people driving 100+ seaters for 70K top-out on the left seat, 30K on the right, and hardly any representation on the market of the 150K+ 20 days off mythical unicorn all these fools got into aviation for in the first place. So in that respect, the number of retirements don't matter one iota.

Just like boomers in other professions, theirs is an economic "up and fold the ladder" dynamic. It is present not just in aviation.

Last edited by IC ALL; 11-24-2009 at 11:49 PM. Reason: profanity removed
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Old 11-24-2009, 10:10 PM
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[quote=hindsight2020;716512]Bingo. What the "retirements are coming" crowd needs to get through their thick skull is the less than one-for-one job replacement at the majors. People need to understand that just looking at numbers and ASSUMING replacements are one-for-one is no less wishful thinking than the kid dropping six figure debt for a zero to hero "4 year adventure" program at Purdue. Retirement numbers will be gobbled up by capacity constriction and scope relaxation. Meaning that steady-state, there will be a bunch of people driving 100+ seaters for 70K top-out on the left seat, 30K on the right, and hardly any representation on the market of the 150K+ 20 days off mythical unicorn all these fools got into aviation for in the first place. So in that respect, the number of retirements don't matter one iota.

Just like boomers in other professions, theirs is an economic "up and fold the ladder" dynamic. It is present not just in aviation.


Most intelligent thing I have read in a while hindsight, well put.

Last edited by IC ALL; 11-24-2009 at 11:50 PM.
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Old 11-27-2009, 02:26 PM
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Yea the world is changing and that is for sure. Job security and future expectations should not be based on past performance.

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Old 11-27-2009, 03:03 PM
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Originally Posted by hindsight2020 View Post
my beef with the boomers is that by delaying their own retirements they are forcing me to start capitalizing at an older age,
Uh, what?

Life is not a seniority system. It's not a closed shop. You have every opportunity to make as much money as you can whenever you want -- none of it hinges on when people older than you retire.
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Old 11-30-2009, 08:14 AM
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What he is saying is that the boomer generation is the driver for more air transportation. If they delay spending their retirements, that delays growth at the airlines. It's the growth at the airlines that caused the rapid expansion of pilot positions and captain upgrades.

Originally Posted by Hacker15e View Post
Uh, what?

Life is not a seniority system. It's not a closed shop. You have every opportunity to make as much money as you can whenever you want -- none of it hinges on when people older than you retire.
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