AA vs. DAL : "Truth Data" American vs. Delta
 

Obviously this is a well discussed subject with many passionate opinions, so I'm just gonna drop this analysis file here and let you all tear it to shreds before I weigh in. Its as factual as can be, but some of you will have better data; its as unbiased as can be, but you all are biased; its inconclusive in summary, but the numbers tell a story.

Yes, I'm a nerd, and numbers matter... but hopefully not just to me. If this is a product I can improve with better data for better decisions for my fellow new-hires, then pass that on. (No I'm not gonna run the math for every airline, hire date, person... its all about me really).

Cheers!

If that didn't come through, here's the file again: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0By...TBfY0RLRHhueTQ

If you want seniority-American. If you want money-Delta.

If you want both, United?

At some point seniority is money if it gets you into a higher paying job.

Just spoke with a 1 yr LOS DL guy who'd been looking at AA. Obviously he's much better off at DL right now. At the end of his career is seniority is better at AA and the pay is the same (assumes DL 20% PS/3% PS AA).

If he was a new hire at AA and DL today he'd probably be better off at AA. He definitely would be at the end of his career.

When I was hired at DL everybody wanted TWA or PanAm:rolleyes:........

There are two things you need to factor in that are not mentioned. Delta has hired a lot of pilots the last 4 years however a high percentage of them are over 40. Lots of retired military. If you are a Young under 30 guy they will be gone long before the end game. The other consideration is Delta is bringing far more of their RJ flying back in house. American and UAL currently plan to continue to outsource more of that flying and have no 100 seat aircraft in their fleet plan.
That can put you into the left seat far earlier at Delta and offset the seniority loss at the endgame from a financial standpoint.

Keep in mind, AA's limited OTS hiring so far has composed of that SAME military type. But many of the flows are ALSO over 40, many pressing 50 or better. Amongst them, there's almost a "secondary/sub" wave of pilots that will retire in addition to the silverbacks.

Honestly, I would go to whichever one allows you to be home based (which is what I did). Commuting SUCKS...driving to work is amazing! Also, you gain a little seniority by living in base. You'll be readily available for premium trips, will hold a line quicker, or you can sit reserve from home. You'll be more likely to take upgrades earlier, knowing you can sit short call at home. I'd gladly give up some seniority and $$$ to not have to commute. No crash pads, no stressing over the jumpseat or making my commute. At the end of the trip, no matter what, I can get in my car and drive home.

I was a 2014 hire at both and ran my numbers based on # of pilots on list, the month after I was hired. Bottom line, I was ~50% at 10 years, top ~25% at 15ish years and top 10% at 20-21 years. First half seniority was slightly better at DAL, last half it was slightly better at AAL. Realize a few things; this accounted for zero growth from DOH, DAL has hired ~3,000 pilots since I was hired and these numbers were pre-AAL/USAir SLI.

Some other things to keep in mind. At DAL, I already hold WB FO and could hold NB Captain, in my home base...both at 90% seniority. I could also hold 73/320 Captain if I wanted to commute to NYC (ref my thoughts on commuting above). I'm fairly sure that, aside from the E190, I would be years away from Captain at AAL. I'm not sure about WB FO at AAL.

Those are great points.

And I think FOR NOW, this job has gotten to a point where base closures are less likely, but that doesn't mean dipalcements in the next downturn. I've been through 8-9 closures thus far. Choosing based on "home" went out of my decision matrix long go.

But a guy that went to UAL back in the for SEA or MIA was probably happy at the time, not so much later. A DAL guy for PDX, NWA for MEM, AA for Bay Area, USAir for PIT, what have you......

All that aside, it's simply the difference between a really really really really really really great career. Or, a really really really really really great career. And that difference won't be realized till 1 day short of retirement date.

Bingo.

Avg f/t age in 2014 was 49. 49... Avg OTS was 36, combined avg of 42.

It's probably dropped some but it's still pretty old. I'll see if I can find the recent f/t avg age.

Found some data - last six months worth of new hires -
increase in retirements by year from posted retirements data as of six months ago -

2024 3 age 58
2025 4 57
2026 9 56
2027 4 55
2028 5 54
2029 9 53
2030 5 52
2031 8 51
2032 8 50
2033 11 49
2034 17 48
2035 11 47
2036 20 46


Some flows, some retired military. Approx 114 of 360 (60 per month???) are older than 46.

DL and UA are averaging 36-37 yrs old. Similar to AA's data for about 1/2 the class. The other 50% (slightly less) is probably older than 45. Found the data after writing the previous sentence. Maybe 1/3 is 46 or older.