The Future Of Artificial Intelligence
07-22-2017, 06:37 AM
#11
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2015
Posts: 297
1. I think you will see the human interaction taken out of the atc system first, with automated control of routing/altitudes directly from a ground based computerized system that can talk to and control the aircraft's autopilot. While technically possible today, even that I would put in the 15-20 year range.
2. Many of us have done this single-pilot. It's not that hard, but it is fatiguing. If you take a pilot out, you likely have to decrease pilot utilization to decrease risk, therefore no real cost savings. Cost or mandated safety are the two big drivers of change, so I don't see a big push from anyone to go single pilot in the next 20 years.
3. Eventually we're going to get to the point of automated scramjets flying LA to London in an hour. Or Elan Musk is going to build 600 mph underground mag lev trains that connect everywhere domestically. There will be a next generation that makes air travel as we know it obsolete. It's inevitable. No one riding a horse in 1890 thought the car would take over. However, big leaps in aviation tend to come from the military first. Without WW1, the fledgling aviation industry probably stays as a fringe hobby for another decade or two. WW2 brought us jets. The Cold War space travel. GPS, drones, etc. The amount of capital to bring revolutionary change to the 121 world is mostly beyond what any one company can effect. I put you at 50 years out from an automated aviation industry (which may not be even "flying" as we know it anymore).
2. Many of us have done this single-pilot. It's not that hard, but it is fatiguing. If you take a pilot out, you likely have to decrease pilot utilization to decrease risk, therefore no real cost savings. Cost or mandated safety are the two big drivers of change, so I don't see a big push from anyone to go single pilot in the next 20 years.
3. Eventually we're going to get to the point of automated scramjets flying LA to London in an hour. Or Elan Musk is going to build 600 mph underground mag lev trains that connect everywhere domestically. There will be a next generation that makes air travel as we know it obsolete. It's inevitable. No one riding a horse in 1890 thought the car would take over. However, big leaps in aviation tend to come from the military first. Without WW1, the fledgling aviation industry probably stays as a fringe hobby for another decade or two. WW2 brought us jets. The Cold War space travel. GPS, drones, etc. The amount of capital to bring revolutionary change to the 121 world is mostly beyond what any one company can effect. I put you at 50 years out from an automated aviation industry (which may not be even "flying" as we know it anymore).
07-22-2017, 08:59 AM
#12
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2005
Position: Under the Frog
Posts: 1,125
Originally Posted by Poser765
I don't know how realistic a threat to self driving cars hacking is. The cars are pretty much a closed system, i believe. So short of plugging in a thumb drive with hacked software, how can one cause your traffic jam on the Brooklyn Bridge?
Also, this.
https://www.wired.com/2015/07/hacker...-jeep-highway/
07-22-2017, 09:09 AM
#13
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2013
Posts: 10,061
Originally Posted by gringo
07-22-2017, 09:17 AM
#14
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2011
Position: Cockpit speaker volume knob set to eleven.
Posts: 1,410
Originally Posted by CBreezy
Yes. There will be a learning curve. I still fully support cars becoming fully or mostly automated.
07-22-2017, 10:34 AM
#15
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2016
Position: Not an RJ driver anymore
Posts: 1,033
Originally Posted by jdebrey
I'm a student at a part 141 school and I have been doing a ton of research on automation in the cockpit, more specifically artificial intelligence.
My question's for the pilot community is this:
1. What advancements will we be seeing implemented in the cockpit at a part 121 carrier in the next 1-10 years... (what technology is already semi close to being done with development/deployment.)
2. When will AI kick out the co-pilot/pilot monitoring in the cockpit. If you don't believe this please articulate your point because I feel this is inevitable in the not so long future (20-30 years my guess)
3. When will 121 carriers try to automate the entire process of flying? I know what you're thinking....
"but the public would never trust a computer to fly us around" I personally believe once we go fully autonomous in the automotive industry and people are accustomed to trusting AI with they're lives to transport them in cars it will change the perspective of the public. (not saying that automotive AI and aviation AI are at all same level of complexity, but I do think public opinion will change)
I know I'm asking you all to whip out your crystal ball, but I think it's a conversation this community should discuss. Plus it would be great to hear from some guys that have been are currently in the aviation industry.
Thanks your all your opinions.
- John
My question's for the pilot community is this:
1. What advancements will we be seeing implemented in the cockpit at a part 121 carrier in the next 1-10 years... (what technology is already semi close to being done with development/deployment.)
2. When will AI kick out the co-pilot/pilot monitoring in the cockpit. If you don't believe this please articulate your point because I feel this is inevitable in the not so long future (20-30 years my guess)
3. When will 121 carriers try to automate the entire process of flying? I know what you're thinking....
"but the public would never trust a computer to fly us around" I personally believe once we go fully autonomous in the automotive industry and people are accustomed to trusting AI with they're lives to transport them in cars it will change the perspective of the public. (not saying that automotive AI and aviation AI are at all same level of complexity, but I do think public opinion will change)
I know I'm asking you all to whip out your crystal ball, but I think it's a conversation this community should discuss. Plus it would be great to hear from some guys that have been are currently in the aviation industry.
Thanks your all your opinions.
- John
07-22-2017, 11:09 AM
#16
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2013
Posts: 10,061
Originally Posted by qball
Until it snows. But I guess by then everyone would just get a snow day.
07-22-2017, 11:16 AM
#17
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2011
Position: Cockpit speaker volume knob set to eleven.
Posts: 1,410
Originally Posted by CBreezy
Just think how pilots used to talk about flying in clouds, using autopilot or letting an airplane autoland. It is going to take awhile to get there, but I'm confident it will. Snow blocking the street lines, they can always put metal chips in the paint so cars stay in their lane using nfc type tech. Don't think for one second that a computer would be less capable of maintaining control in the snow. They have more sensitive sensors and just more data in general to let them know well before they start to skid. It's a matter of time. Start preparing yourself for it now.
Right now, despite the amazing automation, there is still often a requirement for pilot intervention. We've got a long way to go. The mix of human driven cars mixing with automated vehicles will be interesting.
07-22-2017, 02:04 PM
#18
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2016
Posts: 463
Originally Posted by Crown
The only thing that talks is money. If the public hears that this would dramatically bring down ticket prices, they will demand it yesterday. Furthermore, if airlines want the FAA to sign off on pilotless cockpits, it'll happen yesterday. Personally, I believe we are 5-10 years away from losing the first officer, and 15 (give or take) from being completely automated. It will be overall less safe, but when money talks, things happen
07-22-2017, 02:50 PM
#19
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2016
Position: Not an RJ driver anymore
Posts: 1,033
Originally Posted by C130driver
There's no significant cost savings with this, and if they were, it's not as if demand would skyrocket for air travel; in essence the cost savings could either be seen by increased profits to the execs or lower tickets to the pax- either way it's break even, not even accounting for the initial costs and risks
07-22-2017, 03:20 PM
#20
Banned
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Posts: 894
Originally Posted by Crown
How do you figure there's no cost savings? By cutting out one pilot in 5 years, which is highly likely, you just reduced your cost by billions. By cutting out the other pilot in 15 years, the cost suddenly gets reduced to 0 dollars to pilot a plane. The technology pays for itself within a year, and the public doesn't care because ticket prices are lower. Plain and simple.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
