"Automated" Airmanship
01-27-2018, 06:35 AM
#11
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An important factor to consider, and one that is often overlooked in these discussions, is whether or not the market, i.e. consumer, even _wants_ an airplane with no pilots on board.
Public acceptance of pilotless aircraft could and probably will change, but I think it will be many decades before we see the confluence of proven technology, public acceptance, and costs controlled to a level that will put pilots out of work in any meaningful scale.
Public acceptance of pilotless aircraft could and probably will change, but I think it will be many decades before we see the confluence of proven technology, public acceptance, and costs controlled to a level that will put pilots out of work in any meaningful scale.
01-27-2018, 09:51 AM
#12
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Originally Posted by Omnivorous
Everyone is familiar with the phrase "automation airmanship."
Airmanship is a judgment and decisionmaking skill (which obviously includes use of automation). The one thing that AI hasn't been able to crack, even with the most advanced artificial intelligence today, is the ability to make decisions in a dynamic environment.
In the long term, that extremely human characteristic is going to remain the reason our jobs are not going to be replaced by "automation" anytime soon.
01-27-2018, 03:29 PM
#16
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Originally Posted by contrails
You want that from Boeing?
They're delivering 737MAX jets for the next 5-10 years and those jets will fly for 30+ years.
I don't need to tell you what the cockpit looks like...!
They're delivering 737MAX jets for the next 5-10 years and those jets will fly for 30+ years.
I don't need to tell you what the cockpit looks like...!
01-27-2018, 03:35 PM
#17
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Originally Posted by 2StgTurbine
GM and Ford didn't develop a driverless car; TESLA did. Similarly, Boeing won't create a pilotless plane (maybe Airbus), but it will likely be a brand new company (that could be bought by a major aircraft manufacturer).
First, that small company will produce a working pilotless plane. That plane will then spend 5-10 years proving that it is safe. Then, someone must build a large part 25 certified pilotless plane. Once some airline buys it, they will have to operate it with 2 pilots for about 10 years before they even think about changing regulations to let it be flown with 1 pilot.
That is about 20 years AFTER someone creates a pilotless plane. Within that time, it is more likely that the economy will crash causing airlines to go bankrupt which will cause the pay rates to be slashed which will make pilots cheaper than R&D.
And as others have said, the major manufacturers will want to extract as much money as they can out of their "legacy" 2 pilot airframes before they really push for a single pilot/no pilot plane. That means they will send tons of money to politicians to scare the public away from a single/no pilot plane until their 2 pilot cash cow airplanes are no longer worth it.
In short, no pilot alive today has to worry about it.
First, that small company will produce a working pilotless plane. That plane will then spend 5-10 years proving that it is safe. Then, someone must build a large part 25 certified pilotless plane. Once some airline buys it, they will have to operate it with 2 pilots for about 10 years before they even think about changing regulations to let it be flown with 1 pilot.
That is about 20 years AFTER someone creates a pilotless plane. Within that time, it is more likely that the economy will crash causing airlines to go bankrupt which will cause the pay rates to be slashed which will make pilots cheaper than R&D.
And as others have said, the major manufacturers will want to extract as much money as they can out of their "legacy" 2 pilot airframes before they really push for a single pilot/no pilot plane. That means they will send tons of money to politicians to scare the public away from a single/no pilot plane until their 2 pilot cash cow airplanes are no longer worth it.
In short, no pilot alive today has to worry about it.
The only rub--people are already working on this today and are probably considering it a project with huge potential returns if they can beat the competition.
01-27-2018, 04:38 PM
#20
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If there is any form of transportation ripe for automation, it’s trains. They work in one dimension and two directions—forward and backward. They’re not going anywhere else, nothing happens in a hurry, either. Not even started happening. One coal operator automated a private train hauling coal about 20 miles on their property thirty years ago, closed now. Never duplicated.
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