Single pilot planes are coming.
04-22-2018, 03:58 PM
#52
New Hire
Joined APC: Apr 2018
Posts: 2
Originally Posted by OOfff
We won’t end up going from 2 pilots to 1 to zero. It will be directly from 2 to zero. There’s no advantage to single pilot, especially augmented with a remote system.
Originally Posted by rickair7777
This may not be far off the mark. You can't go single pilot until the automation can *reliably* handle the 6-8 pilot incapacitations which occur in the US each year. That means full-auto needs to be ready for prime-time before you go single pilot on pax airliners.
https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artif...olution-1.html
04-22-2018, 05:28 PM
#53
Get me outta here...
Joined APC: Oct 2008
Position: Boeing right seat
Posts: 1,541
Whether we see it in our lifetime, or whether it takes longer is irrelevant. Sort of like speculating on an aircraft mishap a few hours after it happens: what do you prove if you're right?
However, there are many tech companies and entrepreneurs (American and foreign) that will pursue this technology, irrespective of what the pilot unions think. And these innovators will continue to make progress. The improvements and spinoffs that are a result of this pursuit will drive new technologies over the coming decades (think "space program").
ALPA, SWAPA, and APA can partner / be involved / be on the committees / etc... but vehement proclamations that "this will not stand!" are futile and foolish.
Imagine telling Doolittle in the early 1930's that we'd be landing on the moon in the 1960's.
Probably a bad analogy, because I'm sure Doolittle would have supported efforts to make it so.
However, there are many tech companies and entrepreneurs (American and foreign) that will pursue this technology, irrespective of what the pilot unions think. And these innovators will continue to make progress. The improvements and spinoffs that are a result of this pursuit will drive new technologies over the coming decades (think "space program").
ALPA, SWAPA, and APA can partner / be involved / be on the committees / etc... but vehement proclamations that "this will not stand!" are futile and foolish.
Imagine telling Doolittle in the early 1930's that we'd be landing on the moon in the 1960's.
Probably a bad analogy, because I'm sure Doolittle would have supported efforts to make it so.
04-23-2018, 01:02 AM
#54
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Posts: 273
Originally Posted by Bolo35
Completely agree. I don't think we'll ever see single pilot ops until AI has the same intelligence and can also think like humans. That's a big jump from Siri. The big question is when will that happen? Hopefully it'll be 30+ years down the road (or not in our lifetime). When it does happen, single pilot ops will be the last thing we're worried about... Article below is a 20+ min read but sums up what we could expect from AI in the future.
https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artif...olution-1.html
https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artif...olution-1.html
Instead of a FO, you’ll have a dispatcher who is standing by as an additional Crewmember on 6 airplanes in flight. When one of his aircraft encounters an IFE they will become the “FO” on that flight.
04-23-2018, 06:03 AM
#55
Banned
Joined APC: Aug 2017
Posts: 130
This has been going on for years... this will happen soon, there will be 1 pilot in the left seat to start.. GET READY FOR YOUR NEW FO... If you are under the age of 45, have a plan B
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCJqeZ2Rwh8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCJqeZ2Rwh8
04-23-2018, 06:07 AM
#56
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2013
Position: Fastest Hunk of Junk in the Galaxy
Posts: 1,657
Originally Posted by Amike
Neither the Starship Enterprise nor the Millennium Falcon were single pilot or autonomous. Could a computer complete the Kessel Run in less than 12 parsecs? 
04-23-2018, 06:21 AM
#57
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2013
Posts: 10,036
Originally Posted by FlyingMaryJane
This has been going on for years... this will happen soon, there will be 1 pilot in the left seat to start.. GET READY FOR YOUR NEW FO... If you are under the age of 45, have a plan B
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCJqeZ2Rwh8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCJqeZ2Rwh8
As far as single pilot, the amount of money it's going to take to build the infrastructure to support it is going to be WAY WAY more than the cost savings on labor. And then how do we get those experienced Captains if they don't first spend time as an FO somewhere? We will just magically have experienced Captains? "Hi, this is CA Steve. This is his first ever flight in a jet and he's the only one here. Good luck!" The remote operator is also a bad idea. I can't tell you how many times I cross the country with inop satellite wifi systems or no ACARS signal. Anyone who thinks a remote operator is going to be able to assist the in flight pilot with a situation like what happened on Southwest is delusional. I don't doubt we will be replaced by automated systems at some point. To say that it's right around the corner is to be lacking any perspective of the complexity of airline operations.
04-23-2018, 06:21 AM
#58
Banned
Joined APC: May 2015
Posts: 201
Technology is often exponential in growth. Look at the rapid development of Tesla, The Internet, SpaceX, etc.
Automation has huge value and is coming faster and faster. When we over stretch (Tesla manufacturing automation as an example) everyone steps back and recalibrates. That doesn’t mean and end just a fork.
Where the huge and safe savings are is in the white collar world and you are seeing huge amounts of dollars and results as it relates to automation and AI. We moved some functionality at my work to automation that could perform the same function in two minutes that took a person eight hours to do. The cost was negligible, accuracy improved, speed improved, and a savings of $50k a year (per person and it was close to 40-50 people). The math here is simple and we pour about 50% of that savings back into further development.
The WC world will drive this, it is growing exponentially, and it will pervade all things in the next 10-20yrs. Replacing 20,000 pilots isn’t worth the effort. Replacing millions of office and factory workers is. Once that is mastered airline pilots just get swept up in the inevitable.
The bigger question remains when we automate out the workforce, what do all of us do? Make no mistake though it is coming for all of us, and I am helping to drive the bus.
Automation has huge value and is coming faster and faster. When we over stretch (Tesla manufacturing automation as an example) everyone steps back and recalibrates. That doesn’t mean and end just a fork.
Where the huge and safe savings are is in the white collar world and you are seeing huge amounts of dollars and results as it relates to automation and AI. We moved some functionality at my work to automation that could perform the same function in two minutes that took a person eight hours to do. The cost was negligible, accuracy improved, speed improved, and a savings of $50k a year (per person and it was close to 40-50 people). The math here is simple and we pour about 50% of that savings back into further development.
The WC world will drive this, it is growing exponentially, and it will pervade all things in the next 10-20yrs. Replacing 20,000 pilots isn’t worth the effort. Replacing millions of office and factory workers is. Once that is mastered airline pilots just get swept up in the inevitable.
The bigger question remains when we automate out the workforce, what do all of us do? Make no mistake though it is coming for all of us, and I am helping to drive the bus.
04-23-2018, 06:36 AM
#59
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Posts: 273
Originally Posted by CBreezy
What happens when there is an RA? What happens when ATC says cancel approach clearance and proceed direct to a fix that isn't on your flight plan? What happens when ATC gives you a step down that the airplane cannot do? What happens.... I could go on and on. So a robot can program an autopilot under ideal conditions with an optimally performing ILS. I could teach a 6 year old to do it and fly to an autoland. But the robot can't land in a 30 kt gusty crosswind. It more than likely cannot adjust to abnormal, non-profile clearances (or clearances at all). Plus, do we want to trust Siri or Alexa to understand a guy mumbling into a mic...or doing literally what the controller says even it's not what he means?
As far as single pilot, the amount of money it's going to take to build the infrastructure to support it is going to be WAY WAY more than the cost savings on labor. And then how do we get those experienced Captains if they don't first spend time as an FO somewhere? We will just magically have experienced Captains? "Hi, this is CA Steve. This is his first ever flight in a jet and he's the only one here. Good luck!" The remote operator is also a bad idea. I can't tell you how many times I cross the country with inop satellite wifi systems or no ACARS signal. Anyone who thinks a remote operator is going to be able to assist the in flight pilot with a situation like what happened on Southwest is delusional. I don't doubt we will be replaced by automated systems at some point. To say that it's right around the corner is to be lacking any perspective of the complexity of airline operations.
As far as single pilot, the amount of money it's going to take to build the infrastructure to support it is going to be WAY WAY more than the cost savings on labor. And then how do we get those experienced Captains if they don't first spend time as an FO somewhere? We will just magically have experienced Captains? "Hi, this is CA Steve. This is his first ever flight in a jet and he's the only one here. Good luck!" The remote operator is also a bad idea. I can't tell you how many times I cross the country with inop satellite wifi systems or no ACARS signal. Anyone who thinks a remote operator is going to be able to assist the in flight pilot with a situation like what happened on Southwest is delusional. I don't doubt we will be replaced by automated systems at some point. To say that it's right around the corner is to be lacking any perspective of the complexity of airline operations.
The aircraft can easily avoid TA/RAs with the new ADS-B mandate. Currently unmanned aircraft have the ability electronically “sense and sequence” themselves timing arrivals to the second.
Also, landing in 30 knot winds means nothing to the airplane. Only the pilot knows it’s windy. Unmanned aircraft can land within 1.5m of a predetermined point every single time, regardless of weather conditions.
The Siri-Alexa example is a non-starter. It won’t be AI, the aircraft will only do what it’s told...just like when Otto flies now.
As far as the telemetry is concerned, private space flight cures that. Once Elon starts launching cheap micro-communication satellites bandwidth becomes cheap and coverage is complete.
We are about to be England in 1851. The new Crystal Palace is going to cause a major paradigm shift.
04-23-2018, 06:39 AM
#60
Banned
Joined APC: Aug 2017
Posts: 130
Originally Posted by CBreezy
What happens when there is an RA? What happens when ATC says cancel approach clearance and proceed direct to a fix that isn't on your flight plan? What happens when ATC gives you a step down that the airplane cannot do? What happens.... I could go on and on. So a robot can program an autopilot under ideal conditions with an optimally performing ILS. I could teach a 6 year old to do it and fly to an autoland. But the robot can't land in a 30 kt gusty crosswind. It more than likely cannot adjust to abnormal, non-profile clearances (or clearances at all). Plus, do we want to trust Siri or Alexa to understand a guy mumbling into a mic...or doing literally what the controller says even it's not what he means?
As far as single pilot, the amount of money it's going to take to build the infrastructure to support it is going to be WAY WAY more than the cost savings on labor. And then how do we get those experienced Captains if they don't first spend time as an FO somewhere? We will just magically have experienced Captains? "Hi, this is CA Steve. This is his first ever flight in a jet and he's the only one here. Good luck!" The remote operator is also a bad idea. I can't tell you how many times I cross the country with inop satellite wifi systems or no ACARS signal. Anyone who thinks a remote operator is going to be able to assist the in flight pilot with a situation like what happened on Southwest is delusional. I don't doubt we will be replaced by automated systems at some point. To say that it's right around the corner is to be lacking any perspective of the complexity of airline operations.
As far as single pilot, the amount of money it's going to take to build the infrastructure to support it is going to be WAY WAY more than the cost savings on labor. And then how do we get those experienced Captains if they don't first spend time as an FO somewhere? We will just magically have experienced Captains? "Hi, this is CA Steve. This is his first ever flight in a jet and he's the only one here. Good luck!" The remote operator is also a bad idea. I can't tell you how many times I cross the country with inop satellite wifi systems or no ACARS signal. Anyone who thinks a remote operator is going to be able to assist the in flight pilot with a situation like what happened on Southwest is delusional. I don't doubt we will be replaced by automated systems at some point. To say that it's right around the corner is to be lacking any perspective of the complexity of airline operations.
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