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July 2018 Big 6 10 yr retirement percentages

Old 07-07-2018, 05:46 PM
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Default July 2018 Big 6 10 yr retirement percentages

Source - apc airline profile data. Took half of 2018 and half of 2028 to estimate the 10 yr forecast.

AA - 59% (57% using AA data vs apc data)
DL - 44%
UPS - 43% (has 2013 data so it might be outdated)
UA - 42%
FDX - 40%
SW - 27%
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Old 07-07-2018, 06:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Sliceback View Post
Source - apc airline profile data. Took half of 2018 and half of 2028 to estimate the 10 yr forecast.

AA - 59% (57% using AA data vs apc data)
DL - 44%
UPS - 43% (has 2013 data so it might be outdated)
UA - 42%
FDX - 40%
SW - 27%
Big 3 Retirements
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Old 07-07-2018, 07:07 PM
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Every time I see the numbers it takes my breath away! If you think the regionals are having difficulty recruiting today. . .

And remember some of that tail will kick up with the pilots getting back into flying as a second career.

Oh, to be 21 again!
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Old 07-07-2018, 07:26 PM
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Originally Posted by TransWorld View Post
Every time I see the numbers it takes my breath away! If you think the regionals are having difficulty recruiting today. . .

And remember some of that tail will kick up with the pilots getting back into flying as a second career.

Oh, to be 21 again!
It's only approx. 9800 pilots at UA/DL/AA in the next five years and 19700 in the next 10 yrs.

Remember the old days when the F/A's didn't want to wear their five year wings because they were gold? "You're still not married??"

At the current rate, except for the super senior who aren't going anywhere, will the majority of regional Captains have less than five years LOS? That will be a huge change from 5-10 years ago. Will it become a rare sighting to see a younger Captain with a five year pin? If it comes to be that will be a great bump for the younger generation.
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Old 07-07-2018, 07:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Sliceback View Post
Remember the old days when the F/A's didn't want to wear their five year wings because they were gold? "You're still not married?”
Yes, except (to be polically incorrect for a moment), I don’t recall them being called F/A’s.
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Old 07-07-2018, 08:19 PM
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Of course, this will only be an issue if there are still 2-man crewed cockpits in 10 years.
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Old 07-08-2018, 09:39 AM
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Originally Posted by FLYBOYMATTHEW View Post
Of course, this will only be an issue if there are still 2-man crewed cockpits in 10 years.
There are so many errors caught by either pilot I just can’t realistically see this happen. Maybe it will, but in the first 6 months there would be a crash and then back we go to 2 person ops. Plus you’d have to find a bunch of politicians that would stake their name to the safety of single pilot ops, and since they can’t even agree to disagree on anything......I highly doubt anything will change anytime soon.
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Old 07-08-2018, 09:56 AM
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Management doesn't see it that way. It's all about cutting costs in which having regulators in your pocket makes it easy.
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Old 07-08-2018, 10:10 AM
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I don’t think relief is coming on the 1500 hour rule. I think they’ll try a different angle and raise the retirement age. It won’t solve their problem, but it will soften the blow.
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Old 07-08-2018, 10:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Sliceback View Post
Source - apc airline profile data. Took half of 2018 and half of 2028 to estimate the 10 yr forecast.

AA - 59% (57% using AA data vs apc data)
DL - 44%
UPS - 43% (has 2013 data so it might be outdated)
UA - 42%
FDX - 40%
SW - 27%
Thanks for the numbers Slice. Any idea of the hiring numbers each has had in the last 5 years? For example I believe FDX has hired 30% of their “list” the last few years. So 40% may retire but that won’t be the same relative movement if they just started hiring a year ago.

It’d be interesting to see a comparison of % retirements to % hired in last 5 years.

I would guess a new hire today would have greater relative seniority after 10 years at AA vs DL or FDX due to the amount of hiring they have done last couple years, not solely because of the amount of retirements alone. Any thoughts or numbers to that logic? Am I looking at incorrectly at all?
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