Poser765

right. I’m not really using them as a potential ATP holder competing for a job at the majors.

The discussion was a bit more about what these ATPs are doing. My point was there are a LOT of people that hold an ATP but never use it to fly anything larger than a 310.

Excargodog

That^^^

And, further research, there are about 2000 ATP holders over 65 who still hold a first or second class medical. They obviously aren’t competing for a job at the majors either, although I suppose their continued flying may free up other ATPs to compete.

So yes, the actual number of people applying to the majors may not be as great as one would at first believe, especially when you back out relatively recent ATPs with only SIC experience, regional “lifers” and we’ll paid 135 flyers whose age is such that they’d never recoup the decreased pay and lesser QOL they’d take to start all over again on Reserve at a major.

Perhaps the most telling thing in the FAA database is the constant increase in the average age of an ATP which in 2018 was 51 years of age.

That’s been increasing about three tenths of a year per year.

https://www.faa.gov/data_research/av...men-stats.xlsx

See Table 13

And with the lag time between a new ATP and a competitive ATP (military flyers possibly excepted) that says existing ATP holders with competitive numbers are going to be increasingly in demand for at least three or four years no matter what happens with new ATP numbers.

atpcliff

In 2017, I heard from a pilot, and read online from another, the same thing:
They had talked to AA HR. AA HR told them that in 2007, AA had 13,000 resumes on file that met AA mins. In 2017, AA had 3,000 resumes on file that met AA mins.

and then there are the US ATP holders, who are not eligible to work in the US...not sure how many...

Long Landing

Not in HR at the majors but I do recruitment at the regionals. For those of you who think hiring right now isn’t a problem I can tell you you’re wrong. I recruit for Endeavor and even with pay rates being where they are, the DGI program, etc. there is still a desperate need for pilots that we cannot fill. When we filled our classes a lot of that had to do with taking pilots from other regionals, not new pilots into the industry. Going to the recruitment events at colleges and such is where you see the reality of the situation. In a normal day at a major college such as UND, Riddle, Western Mich, etc. you might talk to 25-30 students. Of those 25-30 about 10% can usually be hired and start class within 6 months. Times that by 2-3 recruiters at each event and you’re looking at maybe 5-7 students per school that can be hired. The problem is the drop off of students in their sophomore year who realize that either the career isn’t worth it or they are just downright bad at flying. Gotta figure as well that 10% of people coming out of college are “unhireable” by the majors (several check failures, criminal issues such as a DUI, etc.). There a regionals out there who have no pilots on reserve or minimal (2-3) reserves per day. They can’t staff the flying and need to junior man or offer 300% pay to get people to fly more. Some places even have guys flying 90-95 hours of block per month until they can’t do it anymore just to staff the flying. Be it a pay shortage or a pilot shortage the problem is that eventually the well at the regionals will run dry. It is impossible to recruit 3,000+ new pilots into the regionals every year. It simply cannot be done.

rickair7777

Actually it can. Depends on how bad they want to do it.

A government or industry funded (or both) ab initio program combined with a heavy recruitment effort to get millenials off their butts and out of mom's basement could turn out enough pilots (not talking to you millenials reading this now, if you're already here you're not the stereotypical slacker). Especially combined with a regional => major flow program.

I think right now with the known opportunities if you solved the training cost and career uncertainty problem you would easily get enough folks. Might have to modify the training and checking process so nobody's esteem gets damaged.

Other way to solve pilot shortage would be bigger planes, flown by fewer pilots. That's good for pilots (higher rates), airlines (better CASM), and customers (CASM), but bad for customers in the sense that they like frequency and often five daily RJ flights is more convenient than 1-2 mainline flights. Narrow-body CASM beats RJ CASM but only if you can fill the plane up...

Long Landing

So what you’re saying is to remove the regional flying product, which doesn’t solve the problem of staffing regionals which is what I was referring to. Yes if all that flying went in house and you interviewed with Delta/United/etc. before even beginning your training on the basis of your training being paid for then there would be less problems of getting guys to the airlines. Let’s be realistic however, there is still a small amount of people willing to be on the road 15-20 days per month away from family and friends. There would also be big pay implications in order to get that free training. You would see pay rates go to 50-75% of what they are today. But until these programs are put in place, and there is little indication of programs like that happening on a large scale, there will be the problem of getting people to regionals. In 5 years the regional landscape will be drastically different then what it is now. No one is going to start paying for training until they have to do so. So when they run out of regional, military, and the small handful of part 135/other flying types that can be hired then these programs might be a reality. And once they start these programs then 0-1500 hours is still a 3-4 year process. It’s going to be 5-7 years before a zero to hero pilot is a reality.

rickair7777

I said ab initio with training paid and a defined career path OR remove regional flying, I think either would work. I think folks would jump at an easy path where all they had to do was show up, complete the training, and good to go.

Airline pilots are a very, very tiny fraction of the population, I think there would be no shortage of folks willing to do the lifestyle if the cost of entry and career uncertainty were removed. The lifestyle is not bad per se, it's just different, not for everyone but it wrks fine for many. I get more (actual) time off as a pilot than I would as a white collar type... and I make twice as much as a typical white collar joe.

If lifestyle is really a problem, they could just hire more pilots to grant more QOL. They might have trouble finding people eager to fly 95 hours/month but if they offered 70 hours and 18 days off they'd have plenty of takers.

I sort of assume the majors have some sort of plan for pilots, they are pretty stoopid but nobody is THAT stoopid. The numbers are obvious and well documented. They are having discussions with the USAF to manage pilot movement between AF and airlines (which I think is BS). Maybe their plan A is to hope for a recession.

Bottom line, they still have a lot of trade space to sweeten the deal for noobs. This ain't truck driving... it's prestigious (yes it still is), good travel opportunities, more money than a slacker could ever hope for anywhere else, nice hotels vs. getting raped in a truck stop shower, etc.

SSlow

I don't know how I feel about this. I understand the financial hurdle and the low starting wages being a hindrance to some in this current day, but the typical career progression in terms of job security and financial stability early on has vastly improved over what it was 10-15 years ago. Today we have a high number of scheduled retirements, no interview flow thru programs, regional FOs not seeing less than $50k/year, and even entry level CFI gigs offering some sort of incentive like company paid add-on ratings or some sort of housing program to attract talent.

IMO it's gotten so easy even today as of right now that I am not so sure ab initio would have much of an impact in recruiting qualified candidates.

Just for fun let's assume that an ab initio was put into motion tomorrow with an age cutoff of 35 (airlines need a whole career out of you for ROI). You would probably see a bump in interest from 30-35 year olds who could not successfully get into the industry back during the black swan event from the late 2000s, largely due to the financial crisis and other uncertainty in the airline industry. Understandable. It just was not feasible for a lot of people back then, especially those who needed to support a family.

However for those under 30, and I would assume that age group would be the most aggressively recruited by the airlines due to the possible longer length of service over a career, I just don't see it working out as well. For starters a large chunk of those would be disinterested once they learn that they cannot keep a beard or smoke a joint over the weekend with their friends. Add to that the younger millennials tend to gravitate more towards the hip and trendy new age style work environments, not so much the more traditional "square" type careers. It's boring to them (and I know this from personal experience). And as previously mentioned, the opportunity has vastly improved but the interest just isn't there.

Also there is a whole other debate on a certain age group of adults and their ability to accept constructive criticism and failure in the training environment, and whether or not that has to do with excessive helicopter parenting and the presence of social media all through childhood, but that would deserve its own thread.

Irishblackbird

Don't forget, corporate operations (not charter)want pilots too. What once used to be a sought after flying job, is now having difficulty finding pilots. They will once again start raising pay an qol to retain their pilots as well. A corporate operation in my area just hired a guy to fly a CJ II and started him at $150 k plus bonus, and stock. Less than 10 years ago, that job might have topped out at $70k.

Irishblackbird

That's the last guy I want in the cockpit with me. You gotta have a little passion and want to be a pilot. I still don't think this would help in attracting new meat to the industry.

The job just isn't that appealing anymore. Continued check rides, passing medicals, being on the road, they see how miserable the passengers they are going to serve, going through TSA everyday, ****ty perdiem so so hotels, and how unglamorous the profession is in general. Some people have no desire to be in a union or standing in line waiting until your senority allows you to move up.Let's also throw in the fact of competition, and the fact that even getting an interview to get to the real level everyone wants to be at costs considerable time and money. (Wonder how many accountant's, marketing execs, IT professionals, engineers have to take a hogan test, or cognitive skills test).

I like the money my neighbor makes in the IT industry, but no way in hell would I want to be in front of a computer all day. Likewise I don't think you can turn someone into an effective and professional pilot if they don't truly have the passion to be one. Could be a costly venture for the industry to have people go through training that is paid for only to have them quit a couple years later.