Originally Posted by Irishblackbird (Post 2767058)

Don't forget, corporate operations (not charter)want pilots too. What once used to be a sought after flying job, is now having difficulty finding pilots. They will once again start raising pay an qol to retain their pilots as well. A corporate operation in my area just hired a guy to fly a CJ II and started him at $150 k plus bonus, and stock. Less than 10 years ago, that job might have topped out at $70k.

Originally Posted by SSlow (Post 2767044)

I don't know how I feel about this. I understand the financial hurdle and the low starting wages being a hindrance to some in this current day, but the typical career progression in terms of job security and financial stability early on has vastly improved over what it was 10-15 years ago. Today we have a high number of scheduled retirements, no interview flow thru programs, regional FOs not seeing less than $50k/year, and even entry level CFI gigs offering some sort of incentive like company paid add-on ratings or some sort of housing program to attract talent.

IMO it's gotten so easy even today as of right now that I am not so sure ab initio would have much of an impact in recruiting qualified candidates.

Just for fun let's assume that an ab initio was put into motion tomorrow with an age cutoff of 35 (airlines need a whole career out of you for ROI). You would probably see a bump in interest from 30-35 year olds who could not successfully get into the industry back during the black swan event from the late 2000s, largely due to the financial crisis and other uncertainty in the airline industry. Understandable. It just was not feasible for a lot of people back then, especially those who needed to support a family.

However for those under 30, and I would assume that age group would be the most aggressively recruited by the airlines due to the possible longer length of service over a career, I just don't see it working out as well. For starters a large chunk of those would be disinterested once they learn that they cannot keep a beard or smoke a joint over the weekend with their friends. Add to that the younger millennials tend to gravitate more towards the hip and trendy new age style work environments, not so much the more traditional "square" type careers. It's boring to them (and I know this from personal experience). And as previously mentioned, the opportunity has vastly improved but the interest just isn't there.

Also there is a whole other debate on a certain age group of adults and their ability to accept constructive criticism and failure in the training environment, and whether or not that has to do with excessive helicopter parenting and the presence of social media all through childhood, but that would deserve its own thread.

Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 2767088)

They should have no problems, they can allow beards and with the right regulatory infrastructure maybe cannabis too.

Originally Posted by SpringLanding (Post 2767132)

A lot of this great discussion focuses on mandatory retirements, but there will also be a lot of growth. Everything, including air travel, is continuously getting better, cheaper, and easier. These services are financially available to more people today in the US and worldwide than ever before, and that will definitely grow and improve: more flights to more airports on more airplanes.

What was the size of the largest pilot stable 20 years ago? AA and Delta are pushing 15000. Did Pan Am in all its former glory ever approach anything close to that? (Maybe, but I doubt it)

I think the opportunities to be a pilot today are better than most believe, and growth will factor in alongside retirements when considering hiring needs.

Originally Posted by Elevation (Post 2767249)

Sorry to be a wet blanket guys.

According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, we had the most airplanes in FAR121 service in 1999 at 7859 airframes. In 2016, we had 7034 airframes. Since pilot jobs are proportionate to airframes and not passenger seat-miles, it may be be folly to think that we'll see a second great spurt of growth in US aviation. In fact, as 19, 30 and now 50 seat airplanes go away, we may see a continued reduction in the number of pilot jobs available. Moreover consolidation in the US airline industry continue.

It's true times are good, but not as good as the sixties. I'd also beware anyone who says that this hiring will last.

The bureau of labor statistics and MIT have numbers that refute the glowing statistics put forth by the FAA and Boeing for future pilot demand as well (domestically).

My point isn't to throw mud, but for anyone considering a major life decision, it's worth doing a deep dive into statistics out there. Each source of stats has their own interest in skewing numbers one way or another. Getting a little nerdy may help you make an informed decision.

FWIW my flying career has been pretty good to me. I just think anyone starting out really needs to dig through the data on their own as well as with peers.

Originally Posted by Elevation

. Since pilot jobs are proportionate to airframes and not passenger seat-miles

Originally Posted by Pogey Bait (Post 2767262)

I will throw a twenty down that this new “Moxy” airline is attempting to get certified for single pilot operations.