New ULCC?
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.wbur.org/hereandnow/2019/04/02/new-low-cost-carrier-xtra-airways

If anyone goes to one of these new start ups, I just hope the new ULCC gets a strong foot hold before the economy turns. Especially if the target demographic is secondary markets and leisure travel. There's a huge grave yard full of failed start ups. I also wonder how they are going to compete for their work force these next few years as peak retirement hits. Going to be interesting to see what kind of compensation they can offer against other ULCC and even some regional's that have upped the ante.

Can somebody remind me the name of that ULCC that started in Las Vegas?:rolleyes:. Wasn’t that blue potato chip carrier out of JFK a LCC?

I’ll wager that Moxy will do just fine.

National? :)

Your thinking of Reno Air (except it was Reno, not Vegas)... lasted about 7 years but was bought out by AA in the late 90's.

Or maybe America West, they were Vegas based for quite a while before becoming part of US Air and then.... AA.

B6 is definitely not a LCC. Their first class/mint pods even have a sliding door, fancy food options and tv's in the back of the seats in coach. Average ticket pricing is above LCC level.

It will be interesting to see how difficult it is to staff these new start up with pilots. There's a huge difference today vs when airlines like Skybus started.

I think there will be some draw for the getting in on the ground floor thing, but with such massive hiring occurring and good contacts right now, I suspect these start ups will struggle to hire good candidates

Yes, they lasted about three years. APC member “Skyhigh” flew for them.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation...%E2%80%932002)

My suspicion too. Anybody with the kind of training/leadership/management experience you need for startup core cadre is going to have better options, or they can just stay at the regional in a pretty good place, no need to risk all their seniority for a startup with no union, no workrules, and almost inevitably crappy pay.

Vegas? You mean Tempe, AZ?

I'd agree, talk about an impressive startup track record in this industry.

As far as recruiting pilots, I don't think DN will have a problem considering the second airline he started created well over 100 millionaire pilots very quickly from the first few new hire classes with the stock compensation package (WS had an IPO 3 years after startup). He has a history of taking care of his people.

One of the individuals who is starting this LCC using the XTRA Airways AOC, told me that they do plan on offering competitive wages with other LCCs/majors. They plan on doing point to point from secondary airports.

They do have experienced members on their team who have experience in starting airlines in the past, including Southwest, jetBlue, and Allegiant. I'm not sure if there's enough room for two startups in the same year in this country, but who knows.

Oh, I think they’ll get pilots alright. They’ll have to pay Spirit or at least Frontier equivalent wages to do it, but they will get pilots. New type that is going to be flown by a couple of legacies will have no difficulty attracting young FOs who might just be getting in at the start of something bid that will put them up near the top of a seniority ladder long before they ever expected to get there. Experienced captains are going to be a little more difficult to recruit, but show them the bonuses and DECs will come.

Undercapitallzed.

Negative... Allegiant.

They had a crew base in Vegas, but the airline as you say was based in Tempe.

AW didn't become part of US or AA, AW bought them. Say what you will about Doug but he did single-handedly take over one third of the US legacy airline market. AW DBA AA.

AWA had a Vegas hub.

Allegiant is based in Vegas. One of the few 90s startups still flying.

The CEO of this new venture is Andrew Levy who was a cofounder of Allegiant and served a short stint at United after that. He pioneered the basic economy and other ULCC like projects over there. I would not bet against this guy. If I were Allegiant management I'd be keeping an eye on this. Levy ain't no dummy.

From a business standpoint I completely agree. From a pilot perspective I may be less inclined to go all in... Allegiant has come a long way, but let’s not forget they got to where they are after years of poor pay, and even poorer maintenance practices. Not sure I’d want to go through those growing pains. Then again, it will all depend on many circumstances...

Moxy however would be a different story for me, JMHO.

Yeah a startup is going to hurt for a long time, and you're doing it in hopes that things will turn out well in ten+ years, or you'll get bought by a good airline. Unless they very consciously address the pilot shortage up front by offering a good compensation and workrule package, comparable to other majors.

But usually the startup business model is about leveraging low-longevity wages to competitive advantage... after a decade they typically need to sell out or compete on their own merits, if any.

They’ll have no problem finding pilots. Despite the recent respite, regional flying will continue to contract. And all these startups need to do is offer starting pay that is competitive with regional CA pay and they’ll staff with no issues. Plus it seems like pilots are always willing to jump at the thought of being super senior on a seniority list.

I welcome it. The more drain on the regional pilot supply there is out there the more likely it will be that we’ll see an accelerated end to regional flying as we know it today.

Agreed. Drain that regional pool, make the legacies cry foul, and watch it implode. Nothing would make me happier.
Start FOs at new ULLCs at current regional 5 year CA pay.
Done.

I don't think the regional's are going anywhere anytime soon. Yes they will contract and some regional's will close their doors as pressure on the pilot supply increases. If the legacies determine that the markets and services regional's provide are necessary they will make the improvement required to sustain them. What is percentage of domestic lift being provided to the legacies? Has that gone down or increased? Aren't some airlines like United looking for scope relief to add more regional lift? Republic just ordered ordered 100 more aircraft, and they are not replacements.

Let's face the fact, someone has always got to be on the bottom. Maybe it's done by regional's, or a "B" scale, or putting pilots on a seniority list with a lock for a certain number of years. But they will still be here in some form as long as there is a need.

Do you know what the bases will be for this new airline?

I think I just proved my point. PSA just announced pay raises on par with Endeavor, and Republic. We aren't even due for contact negotiations until 2023 and the union gave nothing for this improvement. What do you want to bet Piedmont and Envoy will have something shortly. Throw in our true flow to AA, within reach of 5 years for most pilots already here, and guys will not want to take a chance with an unproven start up.

The regionals ain't going anywhere!

These startups will pay competitive wages, $200/hr year 1 or 2 street CA and top out at $270+/hr, just like every other ULCC/LCC currently pays except 1. Most regional guys will take the risk for that carrot considering DN is 4 for 4 with airline startups. As far as draining the regionals by these startups, not sure who came up with that idea but even if they hire a 1-2k each, there are 20k regional pilots today plus new ATPs students are increasing every year so that logic doesn’t add up.

This needs to be posted on C&R. Heads would explode.

These LCCs and ULCCs will wise up and start their own instructor pipeline and RTP etc programs just like the legacies have done with their regionals. Sun Country and JetBlue have already begun this. More will follow. There will never be a shortage of pilots at the legacies or the LCCs the way there will be at the regionals in the coming years. It’s only going to get more competitive and the legacies will have to get more creative to secure their comparatively cheap regional feed.

I meant don't bet against Levy to be successful. You can slam Allegiant all you want to (though you've never worked here) but this place is a money machine. Always has been. Not suggesting someone should jump ship from an LCC/ULCC to work at XTRA though. There will be no shortage of pilots. Look at all the washed up regional lifers watching their world collapse and banging every door they can to get out. They would jump at the chance to make $160/hr+ flying a Boeing. As for Moxy DN has never been wrong. That will be a much bigger threat to the current LCC/ULCCs especially Allegiant in SFB. I could see some of our younger pilots jumping ship hoping to cash in like the early JetBlue pilots did. As for the customers I'm not so sure. Allegiant customers seem to put value above everything and unless the price is the same they probably won't buy a premium product. Our customers treat air travel as a commodity. By buying new planes under warranty and hiring pilots on first year pay Moxyy will probably be financially competitive with us for the first 5 years or so. And could offer equivalent fares for a better product. Then as others said they will be looking for a buyout when their costs rise. DN takes his money and rides into the sunset. Again.

What's C&R?

Carty and Retirees? :D

Your right, definitely bet on the jockey and not the horse. David Neeleman has proven himself time and again. He has the smarts and maneuverability to out think his competition.