Swedish Blender

Who knows if they can or can’t. One key point, other retailers (Walmart,Target,etc.) won’t use their competition (Amazon) to ship their packages.

BoilerUP

A lemming follows blindly, without thinking for themselves.

You looked at AMZN’s 10-K yet to see what segments are driving their revenue growth and expense growth, or are you content to repeat what you read in a Business Insider article?

Amazon *could* be the breaker of the duopoly in a way DHL wasn't...maybe. Well down the line. After billions and billions more CapEx to build a competitive air and ground network. Or, they could buy DHL USA and instantly be a player.

Who knows...but I still think pax carriers have more competitive risks though AA’s retirements can shorten the potential downside for a newhire in the next couple years. YMMV...

Omniscient

I don’t think it’s comparable to use size of the airline as to the impact the airline had. Nobody doubts American Airlines is much larger than Pan Am was, but more people travel now than they did in the 60s, so it’s not apples and apples.

Pan Am was “the” United States international airline and essentially their flag carrier. It died. Ask anyone in the 1960s if they would envision air travel without Pan Am, wonder what they would say?

You can’t hedge your bets and say AA is too big to fail and then say it could fail if they have many years of bad decisions, it’s contradictory. If they make bad decisions, they will fail. Pan Am began making bad decisions, perhaps with the purchase of National, and over years of bad decisions, they failed.

No airlines are too big to fail. Sure, they can get relief from the government, like to auto makers have as well, but that doesn’t make them too big to fail.

AAfng

You’re right again, All the experts are wrong. No threat from anything, got it. If you go back a few pages I said the guy should go to UPS but lets not kid ourselves, UPS has the same big issue that AA has.....heavily unionized workforce. Amazon, or even new pax startups dont have that issue. You guys also have the self driving airplane problem you “might” have to contend with but we have the aelf driving car issue where everyone stops flying flights less than 500miles because they can let the robot drive but wait, you have the self driving truck issue. Its all a guess at this point and nobody really knows but if you dont believe amazon is coming to disrupt your business model then you might have your head in the sand. Will it take time? Yep but just like winter its coming and when it gets here dont be like damn, what just happened?

FTv3

Between boiler, myself, and a handful of others, we have put out a ton of information on all aspects of the UPS gig over the last few years on the UPS threads. Head over there and do the research. The big 5 are all quality spots, each having its pros and cons so you can’t really go wrong but some may be better than others depending on your needs/preferences. Also, FedEx/UPS aren’t really cargo - think scheduled express shippers/logistics/supply chain solutions, etc.

BoilerUP

The crux of the issue is the "experts" you mention, just like Jon Snow, know nothing. They are willfully ignorant and worship at the altar of Bezos as if Amazon is a juggernaut that will roll over all in its path regardless of industry.

Kinda reminds me of what people wrote about Wal-Mart 15 years ago...

I never said there are "no threats", I called the threats overblown. You're right 100% that there are threats to all segments and all employers (you'll find those risks in their 10-Ks...) and nobody is immune; as an employee you takes yous chances.

That's EXACTLY it; nail-on-the-head to the basic reality that the Amazon fanboiis spilling thousands of words in columns with clickbait headlines simply cannot or will not acknowledge - especially when the authors' knowledge of logistics is absolutely nil.

You might note I never said they "aren't coming", I said their threat was overblown - because it is. Amazon is to UPS what the ME3 and Flags of Convenience is to AA, a potential threat to future revenue growth but in no way/shape/form a tangible threat to employment security let alone the going concern.

Oh by the way, AWS is driving Amazon's growth these days...an industry that is (by comparison to transport and last mile delivery) not very capital intensive.

FTv3

You seem to think FedEx/UPS are just package delivery companies. If so, you have very little understanding of what the companies actually do, where their total revenue comes from, and more importantly how difficult it would be for amazon to put them out of business.

Also, once they replace cargo pilots with single pilot or pilotless planes, the pax carriers are next in line...

Aviatormar

Does anyone here vote for him to stay at spirit? I mean we act like there isn’t a recession looming (when or how large is impossible to tell) but isn’t spirit in a pretty solid place if that happens?

Honest question, not looking to flame but trying to gain context- what happened in the ‘08-10 time period with regards to UPS/FedEx? Did they grow? Stagnate?

450knotOffice

Pan Am's demise began to unfold just after Deregulation, almost entirely due to the fact that during the regulated years the CAB continually denied Pan Am any and all domestic routes they applied for (interestingly enough, the CAB had no problem giving fellow Flag carrier TWA Domestic routes, in addition to their globe spanning International routes). The result was that when the market suddenly became deregulated, Pan Am had a serious problem with essentially no domestic network. They bought National in an attempt to gain an instant domestic network, but that venture was too little, too late. The downward slide had begun. Flight 103 being bombed out of the sky over Lockerbie, Scotland was the final nail in their coffin.

Ultimately, the CAB's reluctance during the regulated era to grant Pan Am any domestic routes is what killed them after deregulation.

FTv3

There’s inherent risk in any job that involves piloting aircraft. We can predict the weather better than we can predict which airlines are going to survive and which will fail. We suck at predicting the weather...choosing an airline shouldn’t be based on a wild guess of who might be the last man standing. The OP wanted to know basic questions about Brown - we’ve put so much info out on the UPS threads: pay, schedules, vacation, benefits, retirement, contract summaries, etc., that anyone who has spent even a little time researching over there should have a pretty good idea of what the gig is like.