So with ULCC captains maxing out at 270/hr now (plus everything over 82 hours paying 125%), plus 15% DC, doubling in size based on firm orders and upgrades being at around 2/3 years at Spirit / Frontier i wouldn’t be so sure about going to a legacy just to go to a legacy. I would circle back to this discussion in a few years when the economy is not so hot.

Easy drive to work, fast upgrade, I'd stay where you are.

Actually if fuel "spiked" the ULCCs will most probably clean up and the legacies especially UA and AA will feel the pain, especially if demand remained strong. The opposite is also true...lower fuel prices and the legacies can more closely match or undercut fares and not feel as much pain and push the ULCCs off routes.

A good recent example of this is when AA announced new 5x BOS-RDU service a few weeks ago, Spirit just canceled theirs after starting it in Jan 2019.

I've had that exact same commute and it is not fun. That drive is brutal if you have to do it and I would assume you can forget about sitting reserve at home. I did it for one year, purely for financial reasons, and then I moved to a base considering I had and still have over 30 years before punching out for good. Best of luck to you, but if it ain't broke then think long and hard before trying to "fix" it.

AA hands down.

How many former AA pilots are at your ULCC? How many pilots have left your ULCC for AA? I've flown at UA with a lot of former ULCC pilots - they are extremely happy with their decision. The level of support by the entire organization is so much better at UA (and I'm sure all other legacies) than at any ULCC.

If I were in your shoes, I wouldn't hesitate to go for AA.

There really isn't a one-size-fits-all approach to this as you suggest. Living in base or within a short driving distance will always win over commuting, even if that means choosing a growing ULCC over a legacy

Live. In. Base. (or nearby)

Exactly what you said ^.

Andy to answer your question, 15 guys I flown with as an FO who where furloughed legacy (twice for the UAL ones). Not one took the recall. Then again in fairness most of them are in their 50s now and making well over 300 living in base. How many fos have left you ask ? 3 that I know before the new contract. 1 after.

As far as the support you speak of goes, it won’t do you much good when the music stops and numbers 11000-14000 get furloughed. Honestly I think most people will be fine who got hired last few years at any legacy or (U)LCC. But I wouldn’t put my eggs in the legacy basket right before the music stops. Then again that’s me. With 30 years left and almost half the list below me I’m happy

Do you really want DUI Doug to be your CEO and the one leading your company? Mic drop.

Having personally been furloughed twice at United, I seriously doubt large furloughs at legacies even with a major downturn. And unless it's a really major downturn, I don't see any furloughs happening at legacies during the next recession - there are just too many retirements. Sure, some open time will probably dry up and line pay values will probably decrease slightly. But furloughs at AA, UA, DAL? Unlikely.
But that's always a fun card to play to scare pilots below you to not make the jump to a better life at a legacy.

I would encourage pilots both above and below me to go somewhere else if they believe it would make them happier ! Once you get to an income point where most of us are you finally start realizing (well a lot of us sadly do not) that bigger and more is not always better. Happiness, QOL and family is the only thing that matters. this being said I think it would have to get really bad especially with all the retirements happening no matter what for big numbers to get furloughed. Let’s hope that never happens for all of our friends.

and the better life comment I’m not going to comment on because I doubt you know our work rules so to claim it’s steps below yours .. ok, genuinely happy for you :).