Excargodog

Nonsense. Case mortality with decent supportive care is less than 2%. The annual increase in worldwide population is 1.2%. Even if everyone in the world got it and we had no better treatment for it than we do now - HORRIBLE AS THAT WOULD BE - we would be back to status quo ante within two years. And the majors would still be retiring pilots at near record numbers.

SonicFlyer

The economy is unpredictable. Anyone who says otherwise is full of it.

Texasbound

One thing to consider is "The Lost Decade".... it will be back. During those years there was no hiring, there will be a corresponding lack of retirements when people that could of been hired then would have retired. It will not be as bad though, since not everyone hired since things started back up was 24. But it will cause a drop in annual retirements... Think it will start in 2030, maybe sooner.

climb150

Since WW2 the USA has a recession around every 7-10 years. Seems pretty predictable to me.

2GoodEngines

This is sort of the type of numbers I'm talking about. There will be a recession, and it's slightly overdue, but hopefully when it comes (like one poster said), it's "mild" and simply gets the economic numbers back in line with reality. They're not THAT far out of whack right now, but they're all based on growth projections that, when the recession hits, will take a hit as well, then suddenly the market is overvalued, market drops, yadda yadda. It will happen, I just hope there isn't another "subprime mortgage" type of crisis, or God forbid another 9/11. Those types of events are what caused/could cause another lost decade. A simple recession will just take the air out of the tires for maybe a couple of years, and hopefully the massive retirement numbers will help to soften that blow for folks who are already on the seniority list, or are still trying to get in the door.

Obviously it's a multivariate analysis, based on how old a new hire is in the particular year that he is hired, and what assumptions you make about downturns. To be more specific, for someone like me (I'm 47), when is the point where you say "it's not worth it to leave my current corporate gig which is pretty nice but is pretty much topped out below what a 2nd year Major FO would make?". And also, "would it make sense now (and if so, when would it stop making sense) to jump on with a regional to gain 121 time if that's the only thing missing from making me attractive to the big boys?".

I know, every decision is specific to an individuals circumstances. Just wanted to throw it out for discussion and see what sticks on the wall. Good comments all, thanks!

2GoodEngines

I would be 55 years old. Wonder if it would be worth it at that point? Would I spend the next 5 years on reserve and only hold a line for the last 5 years of my career? Would a major even hire a 55 year old at that point? These are the questions that make me consider that truck driving school. Truck Masters, was it?

TiredSoul

I think we need to buy more ammo.

ESQ702

I recently spoke with a very senior captain at UA who said a recent class had a 62 year old in it. Go for it man. Truck Masters will always be there after

2GoodEngines

62? Wow! That's a bold strategy Cotton. Let's see if it pays off :-)

SonicFlyer

1-800-big-rigs :d