When Will It Be "Too Late" To Ride The Wave
02-09-2020, 08:01 PM
#21
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,210
Originally Posted by 2GoodEngines
62? Wow! That's a bold strategy Cotton. Let's see if it pays off :-)
02-09-2020, 08:05 PM
#22
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,480
Originally Posted by rickair7777
That's a vanity move... 42 years slugging out in the 91 trenches but can retire with a wall full of legacy airline memorabilia.
As the Aussies say, ‘good on you, mate.’
02-09-2020, 08:33 PM
#23
Tuberriffic
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: Hopefully the bunk
Posts: 222
Getting old is an unfortunate eventuality with only one known alternative. That newhire with three years left made a call based on the options available, and decided it was the best move. He (she?) won't have the same expectations as the 20-somethings in the same class, but life could be a lot worse.
The folks who "won the lottery" with this environment are a lot younger than me, and will have amazing careers. Much the same as the crowd in the 60s that were picked up by a legacy before they learned to shave. That doesn't mean the rest of us should pack it in and apply to truck driving school. If you have to ask what the "best case scenario" is right now, you've already missed it. There will still be plenty of money left for all of us B+ students, in my opinion.
The folks who "won the lottery" with this environment are a lot younger than me, and will have amazing careers. Much the same as the crowd in the 60s that were picked up by a legacy before they learned to shave. That doesn't mean the rest of us should pack it in and apply to truck driving school. If you have to ask what the "best case scenario" is right now, you've already missed it. There will still be plenty of money left for all of us B+ students, in my opinion.
02-10-2020, 08:34 AM
#26
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2017
Posts: 3,588
Originally Posted by BobZ
Ive flown with 2nd yr pilots making $200k. 3rd year even more. Even at 62...Not a bad way to enter retirement......along with some kind of pass travel benefits.
02-10-2020, 08:47 AM
#27
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 4,116
Originally Posted by SonicFlyer
So if someone is only at the legacy for 3 or 4 years before forced retirement, how much money would they be taking home in retirement for only a 3 or 4 year stint?
Speaking anecdotally......I understand we have hired over age 60 pilots.. Retirement will be 16% on earnings, a life insurance policy that will decrease to a base value of $10K in retirement and the already mentioned pass travel benefits.
So in 3 years maybe add about 100-125K to the 401k from company contributions and with the regular and make up employee contributions I guess? Oh....and you might just get a type rating out of the deal.
02-10-2020, 09:05 AM
#28
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 1,318
Originally Posted by 2GoodEngines
The current hiring environment is obviously unprecedented. Getting hired today at one of the big boys (or even the LCC's/ULCC's) would project to give probably the fastest improvement in QOL of possibly anytime in history (i.e. moving up the seniority list quickly). But, where is the cutoff point? We know every airline is slightly different with regards to projected growth, retirements, etc., and any significant downturn in the economy would make a big difference in the calculation, but as a theoretical exercise, when do you think the point in time is where it's "too late" to take real advantage of the hiring wave? I suspect getting hired anytime in the next 10 years would still be pretty great for someone that had 30 years left, but what about someone who has 15 years left? If that person was hired 5 years from now, (with 10 years left at that point), where will they end up? I'm guessing that person may not see the left seat, and if they do, they probably won't have enough seniority to get off of reserve. Basically, if you come in on the back side of the peak (say, 5-7 years from now) with 10-15 years left, should you just plan on being an FO and base your projections on that? Thought I'd toss it out for discussion. No right or wrong answers but curious if anyone else has done more specific calculations.
02-10-2020, 10:09 AM
#30
Banned
Joined APC: Jan 2019
Posts: 230
If you want the wave that’ll push you all the way to the beach, that wave came in 2018/2019.
A wave that’ll push you to ankle deep surf, that’s NOW.
Anything after 2023/2024 and you might as well just go snorkeling below the waves.
A wave that’ll push you to ankle deep surf, that’s NOW.
Anything after 2023/2024 and you might as well just go snorkeling below the waves.
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