When Will It Be "Too Late" To Ride The Wave
#1
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Joined APC: Jan 2020
Posts: 49
When Will It Be "Too Late" To Ride The Wave
The current hiring environment is obviously unprecedented. Getting hired today at one of the big boys (or even the LCC's/ULCC's) would project to give probably the fastest improvement in QOL of possibly anytime in history (i.e. moving up the seniority list quickly). But, where is the cutoff point? We know every airline is slightly different with regards to projected growth, retirements, etc., and any significant downturn in the economy would make a big difference in the calculation, but as a theoretical exercise, when do you think the point in time is where it's "too late" to take real advantage of the hiring wave? I suspect getting hired anytime in the next 10 years would still be pretty great for someone that had 30 years left, but what about someone who has 15 years left? If that person was hired 5 years from now, (with 10 years left at that point), where will they end up? I'm guessing that person may not see the left seat, and if they do, they probably won't have enough seniority to get off of reserve. Basically, if you come in on the back side of the peak (say, 5-7 years from now) with 10-15 years left, should you just plan on being an FO and base your projections on that? Thought I'd toss it out for discussion. No right or wrong answers but curious if anyone else has done more specific calculations.
#3
That only takes one component into account.
I think we’ll experience a major economic event in the next 5-7 years.
Bad mortgaging going up again, every second ad is refinance refinance refinance.
Dow Joke at 30,000 points, it’s all repeating itself again.
I think we’ll experience a major economic event in the next 5-7 years.
Bad mortgaging going up again, every second ad is refinance refinance refinance.
Dow Joke at 30,000 points, it’s all repeating itself again.
#4
I think all of the future widebody legacy Captains will have been hired by 2021-2022. Those being hired now will spend a long time in the left seat of a 77 or 78. Anyone being hired in the next 5 years will likely be able to hold narrowbody Captain at a legacy within 2-3 years.
#5
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2016
Position: Looking left
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#6
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Joined APC: Sep 2014
Posts: 822
#9
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2018
Posts: 236
Economists are predicting a mild recession in 2021-2022. Lasting about 12 months. Just long enough to take the heat out and correct the market prices.
No mass job losses or furloughs just maybe a freeze on recruitment at many firms till the economy starts moving again.
Remember Ebola? Well that was a false alarm. Swine Flu in Europe was another flop. 24 hours news cycles need 24 hours stories and Corona virus is this weeks hot item. Last week was Iran and before that Prince Harry. Its all c@ap!!
No mass job losses or furloughs just maybe a freeze on recruitment at many firms till the economy starts moving again.
Remember Ebola? Well that was a false alarm. Swine Flu in Europe was another flop. 24 hours news cycles need 24 hours stories and Corona virus is this weeks hot item. Last week was Iran and before that Prince Harry. Its all c@ap!!
#10
Depends on your age. United continues to hire applicants who just turned 23. Looking at the progression of these kids some will spend 20+ years under 1000. If that's not winning the lottery, I don't know what is. I would want to be hired by 2025 and under 35.
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