Has the music stopped?
03-10-2020, 09:16 AM
#501
On Reserve
Joined APC: Dec 2012
Position: 737
Posts: 15
Originally Posted by AirBear
03-10-2020, 09:22 AM
#502
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2006
Position: 767 Pilot
Posts: 1,133
Lufthansa is parking it's entire A380 fleet. Qantas parking all but two A380. I'm deadheading on a United 777-300 tomorrow overseas and it looks like roughly 10 or so business class are sold. Businesses are canceling all travel. People are freaking out because there was a case in [insert city] and they are cancelling their plans. South By Southwest among other events is cancelled. Lots of media hype, but also something to be concerned about. This will affect summer schedules. It's a non-rev's dream though. Meanwhile, go buy some toilet paper and hand sanitizer stock.
03-10-2020, 09:28 AM
#503
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2010
Posts: 353
Originally Posted by saxman66
Lufthansa is parking it's entire A380 fleet. Qantas parking all but two A380. I'm deadheading on a United 777-300 tomorrow overseas and it looks like roughly 10 or so business class are sold. Businesses are canceling all travel. People are freaking out because there was a case in [insert city] and they are cancelling their plans. South By Southwest among other events is cancelled. Lots of media hype, but also something to be concerned about. This will affect summer schedules. It's a non-rev's dream though. Meanwhile, go buy some toilet paper and hand sanitizer stock.
03-10-2020, 09:43 AM
#504
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2017
Position: Retired NJA & AA
Posts: 1,912
Originally Posted by GearDownFlaps15
I'd be careful about posting something internal from SwaLife. Just sayin'
03-10-2020, 10:44 AM
#505
Pronounced Kep-Ten
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Position: Left
Posts: 179
Originally Posted by Cloud5urfer
This is really crunching numbers to win a point while glossing over all the other important details.
It ONLY infected 80,000 people in China because they were so aggressive and put restrictions on 760,000,000 people. From self quarantines to not being able to leave your neighborhood. For weeks. Half the country came to a screeching halt. It has crippled their economy and in turn affected the world economy. Will they recover? Eventually. Will the world economy recover? Again, eventually.
This virus spreads like the flu, and has similar symptoms, but can result in more severe respiratory issues.
Using the 2017-2018 Preliminary Estimates from the CDC, we saw 45,000,000 cases of the flu, 810,000 hospitalizations (1.8%), and 61,000 deaths (0.136%). That 45,000,000 cases was with a vaccine in place, which greatly reduces the severity of the virus.
Based off current estimates, Covid-19 creates hospitalizations in ~20%, severe cases (difficult or labored breathing, an increased rate of breathing, and decreased blood oxygen levels) in ~14%, critical cases (respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction) in ~5%, and fatal in 2.5-3.4% of cases.
If this virus wasn't contained, and allowed to spread like the flu (not accounting for higher infection rate due to no vaccine) we'd see 9,000,000 hospitalizations, 6,300,000 severe cases, 2,250,000 critical cases, and 1,125,000-1,530,000 deaths.
That's why you're seeing large restrictions in countries like China, Italy, and South Korea. To stop it from getting to those proportions.
Am I personally worried i'm going to die from it? No. Am I panicking? No. But the likelihood of this causing significant disruption to normal daily life, the economy, and to us as airline professionals is high.
It ONLY infected 80,000 people in China because they were so aggressive and put restrictions on 760,000,000 people. From self quarantines to not being able to leave your neighborhood. For weeks. Half the country came to a screeching halt. It has crippled their economy and in turn affected the world economy. Will they recover? Eventually. Will the world economy recover? Again, eventually.
This virus spreads like the flu, and has similar symptoms, but can result in more severe respiratory issues.
Using the 2017-2018 Preliminary Estimates from the CDC, we saw 45,000,000 cases of the flu, 810,000 hospitalizations (1.8%), and 61,000 deaths (0.136%). That 45,000,000 cases was with a vaccine in place, which greatly reduces the severity of the virus.
Based off current estimates, Covid-19 creates hospitalizations in ~20%, severe cases (difficult or labored breathing, an increased rate of breathing, and decreased blood oxygen levels) in ~14%, critical cases (respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction) in ~5%, and fatal in 2.5-3.4% of cases.
If this virus wasn't contained, and allowed to spread like the flu (not accounting for higher infection rate due to no vaccine) we'd see 9,000,000 hospitalizations, 6,300,000 severe cases, 2,250,000 critical cases, and 1,125,000-1,530,000 deaths.
That's why you're seeing large restrictions in countries like China, Italy, and South Korea. To stop it from getting to those proportions.
Am I personally worried i'm going to die from it? No. Am I panicking? No. But the likelihood of this causing significant disruption to normal daily life, the economy, and to us as airline professionals is high.
Appreciate the feedback. I wasn't trying to win over anything. Just putting real numbers out there. I will point out, though, that given the way the CDC and other agencies are talking about how this spreads, it seems most people that co tract the virus will spread it long before they even realize they have it. Quarantine or not, the virus was spreading before anyone even knew what hit.
The media is driving the mass hysteria and its killing our industry. Just trying to put some real numbers out there that show that this is really not nearly as bad as it is being portrayed.
03-10-2020, 01:21 PM
#506
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2007
Posts: 204
Originally Posted by Cloud5urfer
This is really crunching numbers to win a point while glossing over all the other important details.
It ONLY infected 80,000 people in China because they were so aggressive and put restrictions on 760,000,000 people. From self quarantines to not being able to leave your neighborhood. For weeks. Half the country came to a screeching halt. It has crippled their economy and in turn affected the world economy. Will they recover? Eventually. Will the world economy recover? Again, eventually.
This virus spreads like the flu, and has similar symptoms, but can result in more severe respiratory issues.
Using the 2017-2018 Preliminary Estimates from the CDC, we saw 45,000,000 cases of the flu, 810,000 hospitalizations (1.8%), and 61,000 deaths (0.136%). That 45,000,000 cases was with a vaccine in place, which greatly reduces the severity of the virus.
Based off current estimates, Covid-19 creates hospitalizations in ~20%, severe cases (difficult or labored breathing, an increased rate of breathing, and decreased blood oxygen levels) in ~14%, critical cases (respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction) in ~5%, and fatal in 2.5-3.4% of cases.
If this virus wasn't contained, and allowed to spread like the flu (not accounting for higher infection rate due to no vaccine) we'd see 9,000,000 hospitalizations, 6,300,000 severe cases, 2,250,000 critical cases, and 1,125,000-1,530,000 deaths.
That's why you're seeing large restrictions in countries like China, Italy, and South Korea. To stop it from getting to those proportions.
Am I personally worried i'm going to die from it? No. Am I panicking? No. But the likelihood of this causing significant disruption to normal daily life, the economy, and to us as airline professionals is high.
It ONLY infected 80,000 people in China because they were so aggressive and put restrictions on 760,000,000 people. From self quarantines to not being able to leave your neighborhood. For weeks. Half the country came to a screeching halt. It has crippled their economy and in turn affected the world economy. Will they recover? Eventually. Will the world economy recover? Again, eventually.
This virus spreads like the flu, and has similar symptoms, but can result in more severe respiratory issues.
Using the 2017-2018 Preliminary Estimates from the CDC, we saw 45,000,000 cases of the flu, 810,000 hospitalizations (1.8%), and 61,000 deaths (0.136%). That 45,000,000 cases was with a vaccine in place, which greatly reduces the severity of the virus.
Based off current estimates, Covid-19 creates hospitalizations in ~20%, severe cases (difficult or labored breathing, an increased rate of breathing, and decreased blood oxygen levels) in ~14%, critical cases (respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction) in ~5%, and fatal in 2.5-3.4% of cases.
If this virus wasn't contained, and allowed to spread like the flu (not accounting for higher infection rate due to no vaccine) we'd see 9,000,000 hospitalizations, 6,300,000 severe cases, 2,250,000 critical cases, and 1,125,000-1,530,000 deaths.
That's why you're seeing large restrictions in countries like China, Italy, and South Korea. To stop it from getting to those proportions.
Am I personally worried i'm going to die from it? No. Am I panicking? No. But the likelihood of this causing significant disruption to normal daily life, the economy, and to us as airline professionals is high.
The troubling thing for me is that we’ve only tested 5,000 people thus far in a country of 327 million. South Korea alone tested 66,650 people in one week.
I agree, those below age 50 are at low-risk and in general shouldn’t be too worried about their livelihood. However, economic contagion at this point is very real as we will see the effects of it coming in the next few months.
03-10-2020, 02:21 PM
#507
Line Holder
Joined APC: Sep 2013
Posts: 58
We all good gents. This will all pass
Progress against coronavirus in China as new cases wane in epidemic hot zone | South China Morning Post
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074032/progress-against-coronavirus-china-new-cases-wane-epidemic-hot
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074032/progress-against-coronavirus-china-new-cases-wane-epidemic-hot
03-10-2020, 02:49 PM
#508
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2018
Posts: 145
Originally Posted by Prim40
Progress against coronavirus in China as new cases wane in epidemic hot zone | South China Morning Post
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074032/progress-against-coronavirus-china-new-cases-wane-epidemic-hot
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074032/progress-against-coronavirus-china-new-cases-wane-epidemic-hot
check out the new cases and death charts for China.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/china/
even South Korea
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...y/south-korea/
US and Italy are in the vertical right now but once the curves flatten as dramatic as these, I suspect you will see panic die down. Took a month or so but it will happen before the end of April. Summer will be old news. Even sensationalized news will burn out.
Everyone I talk to not going to give up their travels for the rest of the year. They’ve just postponed them. Even concerts and public events have already been pushed to later this year. There will be a natural desire to get back to normal. Furloughs depends on the liquidity of the companies but I suspect there won’t be any large scale.
03-10-2020, 02:49 PM
#509
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2018
Posts: 145
Originally Posted by Prim40
Progress against coronavirus in China as new cases wane in epidemic hot zone | South China Morning Post
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074032/progress-against-coronavirus-china-new-cases-wane-epidemic-hot
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074032/progress-against-coronavirus-china-new-cases-wane-epidemic-hot
check out the new cases and death charts for China.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/china/
even South Korea
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...y/south-korea/
US and Italy are in the vertical right now but once the curves flatten as dramatic as these, I suspect you will see panic die down. Took a month or so but it will happen before the end of April. Summer will be old news. Even sensationalized news will burn out.
Everyone I talk to not going to give up their travels for the rest of the year. They’ve just postponed them. Even concerts and public events have already been pushed to later this year. There will be a natural desire to get back to normal. Furloughs depends on the liquidity of the companies but I suspect there won’t be any large scale.
03-10-2020, 03:01 PM
#510
Banned
Joined APC: Feb 2008
Position: The Beginnings
Posts: 1,317
Originally Posted by Varsity
Is Bill Pulte "some dude on twitter" too?
https://twitter.com/pulte/status/123...262911497?s=20
Most doctors in Italy thought this was nothing, until they dealt with it. American bravado seems to follow the same path of idiocy.
https://twitter.com/pulte/status/123...262911497?s=20
Most doctors in Italy thought this was nothing, until they dealt with it. American bravado seems to follow the same path of idiocy.
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