No this is a real concern. If your employer doesn't need cash NOW, they might take a longer-term view.

I think the 4 months is to stabilize them through this ridiculously slow time for the industry. They probably would not of been able to make it out the other side of this virus lockdown otherwise. The real question is what is the travel industry going to look like in October? I'm betting that's where the fleet/manpower planning folks are earning their keep right now. They'll come up with their best plan of action and then make their recommendations to the execs. My guess is the rest of the 4 months will be gearing up for that day through displacement bids and training while everything is shut down. That way October 1st they'll be ready to go with whatever the long term plan is.

To add: airlines with simple fleet plans have a much easier task ahead. Frontier, Spirit, Southwest and even JetBlue or Alaska might decide its just easier to not take the money and go their own way. That money is coming with some onerous terms for management and just like Ford in 2008 decide its just easier if they don't strap themselves to Uncle Sam.

Now I’m no SWA cheerleader (and that’s a gross understatement), but I’d be shocked if they went for furloughs instead of the grants. It would utterly destroy employee moral and what the Kompany has stood for.

Again, not impossible but personally I can’t wrap my mind around furloughs over grant money. Now furloughs after September......definitely a good possibility.

I agree they really don't want to go there, but what if furloughs leaves them $2B in cash on 01 Oct and grants + no furloughs leave them $0.8B?

I think it comes down to how much of the pie each carrier will be allocated. Don't know if that will be based on a fixed metric like ASM's, or if it will be need based. If it's the later I suspect some furloughs might happen at non-big-three majors.

The grants are the payroll from the same period last year

Is that in the law, or policy from Treasury? Also know if that includes the cost of bennies?

It's in the language: salary and benefits, based on the amounts paid to employees 4/1/2019 thru 9/30/2019.

OK, I didn't look hard enough. If that's what it is then everybody should take the grant unless they have some weird circumstance.

too bad my airline grew significantly since then and our payroll costs are much higher

At least the lack of open time and premiums as well as overtime in other positions will be way lower or nonexistent this year and reduced lines will stretch it a bit further for pretty much all carriers. Even with growth I think payroll costs could be lower.