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Old 03-31-2020, 06:57 AM   #21  
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So, the last two weeks of flying empty airplanes around the country with no cleaning supplies in the cockpit or hotel rooms was likely not the best stay healthy plan?

Hopefully, large doses of whiskey will offset that.
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Old 03-31-2020, 07:09 AM   #22  
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Sweden is trying that and managed to get one of the worst fatality rates of any country fighting this now.
I think this is misinformation.

Sweden has approximately the same cumulative fatality rate as Denmark right now. As of writing this, Sweden has 180 fatalities, Denmark has 90. Sweden has approximately double the population of Denmark. Denmark has locked down and shut their society, Sweden has not. They are almost identical nations in terms of wealth, health and genetics so it is about as close to a controlled experiment as medicine can have in the real world.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00154-w

Scientists have moved away from measuring rates of infection because the numbers are producing such bad data (most people infected never get tested). They are now measuring deaths per capita as a more reasonable means of assessing disease behavior and response. Per the article link above:

"Since many countries still lack the capacity for widespread testing, the latest model uses reported COVID-19 deaths to track the spread of the virus instead of infection rates. Given the lag time between infection and mortality, it may take up to several weeks for the full effects of the interventions to be felt, especially in countries that are still in the relatively early stages of their epidemics, such as the UK, according to the report.

The researchers are also careful to note that they cannot attribute the transmission reduction to any particular intervention. And itís too early to know whether the interventions as a whole are having the intended effect in some European countries. But, ďif current trends continue, there is reason for optimismĒ, they write."


Time will ultimately be the judge of what has been effective and what has been excessive in terms of response. Time will ultimately be the judge if the government and social response has been worth it. At this point in time, the mortality rate in Sweden is very similar to Denmark. Please note Sweden has almost twice the population as Denmark does.

Also, as an aside. The Nordic/Scandinavian nations have had very low death rates. For an example, Iceland has an iFR (infectious fatality rate) of 0.18%. That is similar to a typical flu year, and is atypical of what most other nations are experiencing.

Nordic people are typically more isolated than other countries and aren't nearly as "touchy-feely" as those in Europe whose latitude is further south. Perhaps their culture is more "socially distant" to begin with (my opinion only).

We know that the overwhelming majority of people are not significantly effected by the virus. We also can identify easily those that are high risk and will benefit the best from social isolation. We will potentially put the country into an economic depression yet scientists acknowledge they can not attribute transmission reduction to any particular intervention. That's a bold strategy Cotton, let's see if it pays off.
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Old 03-31-2020, 07:12 AM   #23  
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Originally Posted by Psycho18th View Post
So, the last two weeks of flying empty airplanes around the country with no cleaning supplies in the cockpit or hotel rooms was likely not the best stay healthy plan?

Hopefully, large doses of whiskey will offset that.

I wasnít putting forth much effort other than personal hygiene because there are no people around, but now Iím bringing my own cleaning stuff. Especially after that video. Itís common sense peace of mind through some simple changes of behavior.

As was mentioned in an earlier post, some wonít change their behavior until itís too late.
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Old 03-31-2020, 07:13 AM   #24  
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80% of people wonít even know they have been infected. And the death rate in New York has been lower than forecast, much less than an exponential climb. New York City and New York State have kept good statistics, they are available online.

As the NYC statistics show, this is a virus that almost exclusively kills sick people:

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/down...ary-deaths.pdf

Those with underlying conditions can sit at home in isolation and protect themselves. The rest of us should be working.

The potential for economic depression and all the problems that come with it is simply not worth the risk. Repressing everyone equally is an absurdity with a virus that is so specific in who it impacts.


Im sorry but youíre simply mistaken. Nobody is immune. The flu kills about 50,000 a year, this would kill 2,000,000 according to estimates if we donít do anything as itís been said by the cdc. The ones that have survived have done so because the hospitals so far have been able to support them. If it went as business as usual like you say, there would be mass casualties as the system would be overrun. The only reason why thereís not more dead is because the majority are taking the advice of staying home. Ironically the only way to stop this is if the gov to actually enforce a lockdown. Most businesses should be able to survive a few weeks of lockdown, but the way itís going on now where thereís still people thinking this isnít serous would ensure that this will go on for a long time.
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Old 03-31-2020, 07:19 AM   #25  
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Im sorry but youíre simply mistaken. Nobody is immune. The ones that have survived have done so because the hospitals so far have been able to support them. If it went as business as usual like you say, there would be mass casualties as the system would be overrun. The only reason why thereís not more dead is because the majority are taking the advice of staying home. Ironically the only way to stop this is if the gov to actually enforce a lockdown. Most businesses should be able to survive a few weeks of lockdown, but the way itís going on now where thereís still people thinking this isnít serous would ensure that this will go on for a long time.
Again, this is simply incorrect. 80% of the cases of those infected are mild at most. The majority of people infected receive no medical intervention and develop immunity.

From the World Health Organization:

People may be sick with the virus for 1 to 14 days before developing symptoms. The most common symptoms of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) are fever, tiredness, and dry cough. Most people (about 80%) recover from the disease without needing special treatment. More rarely, the disease can be serious and even fatal. Older people, and people with other medical conditions (such as asthma, diabetes, or heart disease), may be more vulnerable to becoming severely ill.
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Old 03-31-2020, 07:23 AM   #26  
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Again, this is simply incorrect. 80% of the cases of those infected are mild at most. The majority of people infected receive no medical intervention and develop immunity.

From the World Health Organization:

People may be sick with the virus for 1 to 14 days before developing symptoms. The most common symptoms of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) are fever, tiredness, and dry cough. Most people (about 80%) recover from the disease without needing special treatment. More rarely, the disease can be serious and even fatal. Older people, and people with other medical conditions (such as asthma, diabetes, or heart disease), may be more vulnerable to becoming severely ill.
Mild also includes pneumonia not requiring supplemental oxygen. I know a few people who have come down with this and while they werenít hospitalized they said it was markedly worse than any flu or cold.
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Old 03-31-2020, 07:26 AM   #27  
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ó- First hand account from the ground zero Doctor in the video

Only those with shortness of breath are being admitted to the hospital. Most have fever, coughing, joint pain, and congestion with occasional conjunctivitis. They are being told to isolate at home and take Tylenol, and recovering naturally in 5 days to 2 weeks. Finally, the vast majority of hospital patients on a ventilator, recover and are sent home in one to two weeks.


My last trip I flew with a FA that had it and tested positive over a month ago. She stayed at home until two weeks after the last symptom cleared up. Said it wasnít that bad but was hard to breath, so could understand how it could be a problem for someone who is high-risk.
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Old 03-31-2020, 07:29 AM   #28  
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Again, this is simply incorrect. 80% of the cases of those infected are mild at most. The majority of people infected receive no medical intervention and develop immunity.

From the World Health Organization:

People may be sick with the virus for 1 to 14 days before developing symptoms. The most common symptoms of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) are fever, tiredness, and dry cough. Most people (about 80%) recover from the disease without needing special treatment. More rarely, the disease can be serious and even fatal. Older people, and people with other medical conditions (such as asthma, diabetes, or heart disease), may be more vulnerable to becoming severely ill.
Youíre going to kill 2,000,000 people in the US though with your method, compared to 50,000 a year for the regular flu that we see. Thatís what the CDC has said if we donít take measures and just let this play out. Itís a lot more deadly than the flu, thatís the problem.
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Old 03-31-2020, 07:31 AM   #29  
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https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/down...rveillance.pdf
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Old 03-31-2020, 07:33 AM   #30  
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Extrapolating these numbers, it is possible the outer boroughs of NYC have already come close to herd immunity:

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/down...9-data-map.pdf

And if you don't want to buy the herd immunity concept in NYC that's fine. But, extrapolating these numbers to the population it's quite possible most people in NYC have already been infected.
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