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Old 03-31-2020, 07:46 AM   #31  
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Extrapolating these numbers, it is possible the outer boroughs of NYC have already come close to herd immunity:

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/down...9-data-map.pdf

And if you don't want to buy the herd immunity concept in NYC that's fine. But, extrapolating these numbers to the population it's quite possible most people in NYC have already been infected.

Herd immunity is going to happen naturally, just as it has with all widespread viruses. But look how the NYC healthcare system has been overwhelmed. The plan to flatten the curve will eventually lead to herd immunity without the short-term overload.

The question is which method would be less catastrophic. We won’t know until later because without 100% testing the data is inaccurate now.
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Old 03-31-2020, 09:30 AM   #32  
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Watching the death totals in the next few weeks go from 4 figures to 6 figures may convince most to follow the guidelines. If not at least we'll raise the average IQ here in the USA.
Unfortunately, I think the US will be the first country to use a comma in it's daily death toll within a few days. I hope I am wrong.
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Old 03-31-2020, 09:36 AM   #33  
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Wow. Would be nice for these statistics to be shared by the media! This puts it in perspective.
Why? The news media is a business. They only care about quotes etc. and they get those by spreading fear, hysteria etc.

I mean seriously, can you imagine on a normal day people turning their TVs and phones off and simply step outside?
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Old 03-31-2020, 11:12 AM   #34  
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Originally Posted by AntiPeter View Post
Extrapolating these numbers, it is possible the outer boroughs of NYC have already come close to herd immunity:

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/down...9-data-map.pdf

And if you don't want to buy the herd immunity concept in NYC that's fine. But, extrapolating these numbers to the population it's quite possible most people in NYC have already been infected.

This is not an attack!

But here’s a link to an article by an epidemiologist who says that “herd immunity” is woefully misunderstood, and it will not help this pandemic the way us non epidemiologists think.

Without a vaccine, for this virus, herd immunity is, as a practical matter, worthless.

https://www.sciencealert.com/why-herd-immunity-will-not-save-us-from-the-covid-19-pandemic
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Old 04-01-2020, 03:54 PM   #35  
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Back to OP.... Northam wants the Dems to remain in power. The state primary is June 9th. Coincidence... I think not?
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Old 04-01-2020, 05:54 PM   #36  
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Back to OP.... Northam wants the Dems to remain in power. The state primary is June 9th. Coincidence... I think not?
^^^^^^^^^^^^
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Old 04-02-2020, 07:07 AM   #37  
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Originally Posted by deltabound View Post
This is not an attack!

But here’s a link to an article by an epidemiologist who says that “herd immunity” is woefully misunderstood, and it will not help this pandemic the way us non epidemiologists think.

Without a vaccine, for this virus, herd immunity is, as a practical matter, worthless.

https://www.sciencealert.com/why-her...id-19-pandemic
Yes, we need a vaccine because herd immunity will take too long if dragged out so that the healthcare system can handle the serious cases, and even then lots of people will die. And we'd get into seasonal cycles with weather changes and also relaxed travel restrictions.

It's all about a vaccine, or some really effective pharma treatment for those who get it (that doesn't involved ICU/ventilators)..
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Old 04-02-2020, 06:25 PM   #38  
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Originally Posted by AntiPeter View Post
Extrapolating these numbers, it is possible the outer boroughs of NYC have already come close to herd immunity:

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/down...9-data-map.pdf

And if you don't want to buy the herd immunity concept in NYC that's fine. But, extrapolating these numbers to the population it's quite possible most people in NYC have already been infected.
It appears to me this is saying some areas have 60-80% of the tests coming back positive. That does not mean that percentage of people would test positive. Those many have had a much more restrictive number of test.

The inner areas that are 10-20% positives may have a much greater, more broad testing.

As an example, if you have a population of 100 and you test 10 people, with 8 positives, you would have 80% of tests positive.

On the other hand, if you have a population of 100 and you test 80 people, with 8 positives, you would have 10% of tests positive.

With only 8% of the total population testing positive, neither of these examples would lead to a conclusion of herd immunity. Without the percentage of the population being tested, this data is meaningless.
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Old 04-02-2020, 06:28 PM   #39  
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It appears to me this is saying some areas have 60-80% of the tests coming back positive. That does not mean that percentage of people would test positive. Those many have had a much more restrictive number of test.

The inner areas that are 10-20% positives may have a much greater, more broad testing.

As an example, if you have a population of 100 and you test 10 people, with 8 positives, you would have 80% of tests positive.

On the other hand, if you have a population of 100 and you test 80 people, with 8 positives, you would have 10% of tests positive.

Neither of these examples would lead to a conclusion of herd immunity. Without the percentage of the population being tested, this data is meaningless.
testing is mostly being done to those who are symptomatic, which skews the odds to the positive.
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Old 04-02-2020, 06:31 PM   #40  
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testing is mostly being done to those who are symptomatic, which skews the odds to the positive.
I would think that would be the case. But why do those inner areas only get 10-20% positives, compared to the outer areas with 60-80% of those tested positive. Are they less selective in who they are administering the test to?
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