VA Issues Stay-at-Home Order til June 10th
03-31-2020, 07:46 AM
#31
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Originally Posted by AntiPeter
Extrapolating these numbers, it is possible the outer boroughs of NYC have already come close to herd immunity:
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/down...9-data-map.pdf
And if you don't want to buy the herd immunity concept in NYC that's fine. But, extrapolating these numbers to the population it's quite possible most people in NYC have already been infected.
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/down...9-data-map.pdf
And if you don't want to buy the herd immunity concept in NYC that's fine. But, extrapolating these numbers to the population it's quite possible most people in NYC have already been infected.
Herd immunity is going to happen naturally, just as it has with all widespread viruses. But look how the NYC healthcare system has been overwhelmed. The plan to flatten the curve will eventually lead to herd immunity without the short-term overload.
The question is which method would be less catastrophic. We won’t know until later because without 100% testing the data is inaccurate now.
03-31-2020, 09:30 AM
#32
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Originally Posted by AirBear
Watching the death totals in the next few weeks go from 4 figures to 6 figures may convince most to follow the guidelines. If not at least we'll raise the average IQ here in the USA.
03-31-2020, 09:36 AM
#33
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Originally Posted by michael525Bdo
Wow. Would be nice for these statistics to be shared by the media! This puts it in perspective.
I mean seriously, can you imagine on a normal day people turning their TVs and phones off and simply step outside?
03-31-2020, 11:12 AM
#34
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Originally Posted by AntiPeter
Extrapolating these numbers, it is possible the outer boroughs of NYC have already come close to herd immunity:
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/down...9-data-map.pdf
And if you don't want to buy the herd immunity concept in NYC that's fine. But, extrapolating these numbers to the population it's quite possible most people in NYC have already been infected.
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/down...9-data-map.pdf
And if you don't want to buy the herd immunity concept in NYC that's fine. But, extrapolating these numbers to the population it's quite possible most people in NYC have already been infected.
This is not an attack!
But here’s a link to an article by an epidemiologist who says that “herd immunity” is woefully misunderstood, and it will not help this pandemic the way us non epidemiologists think.
Without a vaccine, for this virus, herd immunity is, as a practical matter, worthless.
https://www.sciencealert.com/why-herd-immunity-will-not-save-us-from-the-covid-19-pandemic
04-02-2020, 07:07 AM
#37
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Originally Posted by deltabound
This is not an attack!
But here’s a link to an article by an epidemiologist who says that “herd immunity” is woefully misunderstood, and it will not help this pandemic the way us non epidemiologists think.
Without a vaccine, for this virus, herd immunity is, as a practical matter, worthless.
https://www.sciencealert.com/why-her...id-19-pandemic
But here’s a link to an article by an epidemiologist who says that “herd immunity” is woefully misunderstood, and it will not help this pandemic the way us non epidemiologists think.
Without a vaccine, for this virus, herd immunity is, as a practical matter, worthless.
https://www.sciencealert.com/why-her...id-19-pandemic
It's all about a vaccine, or some really effective pharma treatment for those who get it (that doesn't involved ICU/ventilators)..
04-02-2020, 06:25 PM
#38
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Position: Relaxed
Posts: 6,937
Originally Posted by AntiPeter
Extrapolating these numbers, it is possible the outer boroughs of NYC have already come close to herd immunity:
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/down...9-data-map.pdf
And if you don't want to buy the herd immunity concept in NYC that's fine. But, extrapolating these numbers to the population it's quite possible most people in NYC have already been infected.
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/down...9-data-map.pdf
And if you don't want to buy the herd immunity concept in NYC that's fine. But, extrapolating these numbers to the population it's quite possible most people in NYC have already been infected.
The inner areas that are 10-20% positives may have a much greater, more broad testing.
As an example, if you have a population of 100 and you test 10 people, with 8 positives, you would have 80% of tests positive.
On the other hand, if you have a population of 100 and you test 80 people, with 8 positives, you would have 10% of tests positive.
With only 8% of the total population testing positive, neither of these examples would lead to a conclusion of herd immunity. Without the percentage of the population being tested, this data is meaningless.
04-02-2020, 06:28 PM
#39
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Posts: 2,030
Originally Posted by TransWorld
It appears to me this is saying some areas have 60-80% of the tests coming back positive. That does not mean that percentage of people would test positive. Those many have had a much more restrictive number of test.
The inner areas that are 10-20% positives may have a much greater, more broad testing.
As an example, if you have a population of 100 and you test 10 people, with 8 positives, you would have 80% of tests positive.
On the other hand, if you have a population of 100 and you test 80 people, with 8 positives, you would have 10% of tests positive.
Neither of these examples would lead to a conclusion of herd immunity. Without the percentage of the population being tested, this data is meaningless.
The inner areas that are 10-20% positives may have a much greater, more broad testing.
As an example, if you have a population of 100 and you test 10 people, with 8 positives, you would have 80% of tests positive.
On the other hand, if you have a population of 100 and you test 80 people, with 8 positives, you would have 10% of tests positive.
Neither of these examples would lead to a conclusion of herd immunity. Without the percentage of the population being tested, this data is meaningless.
04-02-2020, 06:31 PM
#40
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Position: Relaxed
Posts: 6,937
Originally Posted by Grumpyaviator
testing is mostly being done to those who are symptomatic, which skews the odds to the positive.
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