Report: Travel back to normal in 2022
03-31-2020, 01:22 PM
#1
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Report: Travel back to normal in 2022
https://thepointsguy.com/news/airlin...rn-until-2022/
“We anticipate that traffic growth will improve beginning in [the fourth quarter of 2020], but not reach 2019 levels until 2022 at the earliest,” wrote Cowen analyst Helane Becker in a report on March 27.
Raymond James analyst Savanthi Syth told TPG she does not expect passenger numbers to hit the previous peak until around 2023. She expects something of a “new normal” with passenger demand, at least in the U.S., holding at around 10-15% lower than 2019 levels by the end of 2020.
“In past pandemics we’ve seen this V-shape in the travel profile with a sharp recovery in about six months, but this time is different because we’ve got a deep recession,” said Brian Peace, chief economist at industry body the International Air Transport Association (IATA), during a briefing on Tuesday. “It won’t be until 2021 that we would expect a significant recovery.”
“We anticipate that traffic growth will improve beginning in [the fourth quarter of 2020], but not reach 2019 levels until 2022 at the earliest,” wrote Cowen analyst Helane Becker in a report on March 27.
Raymond James analyst Savanthi Syth told TPG she does not expect passenger numbers to hit the previous peak until around 2023. She expects something of a “new normal” with passenger demand, at least in the U.S., holding at around 10-15% lower than 2019 levels by the end of 2020.
“In past pandemics we’ve seen this V-shape in the travel profile with a sharp recovery in about six months, but this time is different because we’ve got a deep recession,” said Brian Peace, chief economist at industry body the International Air Transport Association (IATA), during a briefing on Tuesday. “It won’t be until 2021 that we would expect a significant recovery.”
03-31-2020, 01:48 PM
#3
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Originally Posted by senecacaptain
https://thepointsguy.com/news/airlin...rn-until-2022/
“We anticipate that traffic growth will improve beginning in [the fourth quarter of 2020], but not reach 2019 levels until 2022 at the earliest,” wrote Cowen analyst Helane Becker in a report on March 27.
Raymond James analyst Savanthi Syth told TPG she does not expect passenger numbers to hit the previous peak until around 2023. She expects something of a “new normal” with passenger demand, at least in the U.S., holding at around 10-15% lower than 2019 levels by the end of 2020.
“In past pandemics we’ve seen this V-shape in the travel profile with a sharp recovery in about six months, but this time is different because we’ve got a deep recession,” said Brian Peace, chief economist at industry body the International Air Transport Association (IATA), during a briefing on Tuesday. “It won’t be until 2021 that we would expect a significant recovery.”
“We anticipate that traffic growth will improve beginning in [the fourth quarter of 2020], but not reach 2019 levels until 2022 at the earliest,” wrote Cowen analyst Helane Becker in a report on March 27.
Raymond James analyst Savanthi Syth told TPG she does not expect passenger numbers to hit the previous peak until around 2023. She expects something of a “new normal” with passenger demand, at least in the U.S., holding at around 10-15% lower than 2019 levels by the end of 2020.
“In past pandemics we’ve seen this V-shape in the travel profile with a sharp recovery in about six months, but this time is different because we’ve got a deep recession,” said Brian Peace, chief economist at industry body the International Air Transport Association (IATA), during a briefing on Tuesday. “It won’t be until 2021 that we would expect a significant recovery.”
03-31-2020, 03:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Bahamasflyer
And if true, hiring will then happen at an absolute breakneck pack in 3 yrs. Growth and retirements combine. I’d bet 1500 a year at the legacies. Obviously a lot of pain until then.
Indeed, it is possible large scale hiring in a few years. Lets see how things play out in the next few months.
03-31-2020, 05:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Bahamasflyer
And if true, hiring will then happen at an absolute breakneck pack in 3 yrs. Growth and retirements combine. I’d bet 1500 a year at the legacies. Obviously a lot of pain until then.
I'll believe it when I see it. Sick and tired of hearing how 2020 was supposed to start "the greatest hiring spree we'd ever seen" because of retirements and growth plans.
Yaaaawwwnnnn. The aviation gods have different plans, and they seem to strike about once every decade or so.
03-31-2020, 06:00 PM
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And the other thing that's most likely going to be true, CEOs have admit, but pilots don't want to hear: every single carrier is going to come out smaller/leaner as a result of this pandemic. There was already waaay too much capacity in the entire system. Hopefully this also means the end of useless capacity dumping base wars (like at SEA).
04-01-2020, 03:32 AM
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Originally Posted by ShyGuy
And the other thing that's most likely going to be true, CEOs have admit, but pilots don't want to hear: every single carrier is going to come out smaller/leaner as a result of this pandemic. There was already waaay too much capacity in the entire system. Hopefully this also means the end of useless capacity dumping base wars (like at SEA).
And SEA was always full; most of the time I had commuters on the jumpseat because the flights in/out of SEA were so full.
04-01-2020, 04:31 AM
#10
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Originally Posted by SonicFlyer
Anyone who says they know the future is full of it.
We can't predict what will happen in a few weeks, much less a few months or years.
We can't predict what will happen in a few weeks, much less a few months or years.
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