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Old 03-31-2020, 01:22 PM   #1  
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Default Report: Travel back to normal in 2022

https://thepointsguy.com/news/airlin...rn-until-2022/



“We anticipate that traffic growth will improve beginning in [the fourth quarter of 2020], but not reach 2019 levels until 2022 at the earliest,” wrote Cowen analyst Helane Becker in a report on March 27.

Raymond James analyst Savanthi Syth told TPG she does not expect passenger numbers to hit the previous peak until around 2023. She expects something of a “new normal” with passenger demand, at least in the U.S., holding at around 10-15% lower than 2019 levels by the end of 2020.

“In past pandemics we’ve seen this V-shape in the travel profile with a sharp recovery in about six months, but this time is different because we’ve got a deep recession,” said Brian Peace, chief economist at industry body the International Air Transport Association (IATA), during a briefing on Tuesday. “It won’t be until 2021 that we would expect a significant recovery.”
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Old 03-31-2020, 01:39 PM   #2  
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Agreed. The domestic network will come back before the international. In that sense, the big 3 are hurt more.
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Old 03-31-2020, 01:48 PM   #3  
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https://thepointsguy.com/news/airlin...rn-until-2022/



“We anticipate that traffic growth will improve beginning in [the fourth quarter of 2020], but not reach 2019 levels until 2022 at the earliest,” wrote Cowen analyst Helane Becker in a report on March 27.

Raymond James analyst Savanthi Syth told TPG she does not expect passenger numbers to hit the previous peak until around 2023. She expects something of a “new normal” with passenger demand, at least in the U.S., holding at around 10-15% lower than 2019 levels by the end of 2020.

“In past pandemics we’ve seen this V-shape in the travel profile with a sharp recovery in about six months, but this time is different because we’ve got a deep recession,” said Brian Peace, chief economist at industry body the International Air Transport Association (IATA), during a briefing on Tuesday. “It won’t be until 2021 that we would expect a significant recovery.”
3 years minimum before we get back to pre-covid levels.
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Old 03-31-2020, 02:54 PM   #4  
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And if true, hiring will then happen at an absolute breakneck pack in 3 yrs. Growth and retirements combine. I’d bet 1500 a year at the legacies. Obviously a lot of pain until then.
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Old 03-31-2020, 03:13 PM   #5  
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And if true, hiring will then happen at an absolute breakneck pack in 3 yrs. Growth and retirements combine. I’d bet 1500 a year at the legacies. Obviously a lot of pain until then.
I don't think "growth" will begin until pre-COVID levels are indeed a sure thing. Growth may be 2024 ish.

Indeed, it is possible large scale hiring in a few years. Lets see how things play out in the next few months.
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Old 03-31-2020, 05:21 PM   #6  
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Anyone who says they know the future is full of it.

We can't predict what will happen in a few weeks, much less a few months or years.
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Old 03-31-2020, 05:59 PM   #7  
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And if true, hiring will then happen at an absolute breakneck pack in 3 yrs. Growth and retirements combine. I’d bet 1500 a year at the legacies. Obviously a lot of pain until then.

I'll believe it when I see it. Sick and tired of hearing how 2020 was supposed to start "the greatest hiring spree we'd ever seen" because of retirements and growth plans.

Yaaaawwwnnnn. The aviation gods have different plans, and they seem to strike about once every decade or so.
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Old 03-31-2020, 06:00 PM   #8  
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And the other thing that's most likely going to be true, CEOs have admit, but pilots don't want to hear: every single carrier is going to come out smaller/leaner as a result of this pandemic. There was already waaay too much capacity in the entire system. Hopefully this also means the end of useless capacity dumping base wars (like at SEA).
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Old 04-01-2020, 03:32 AM   #9  
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And the other thing that's most likely going to be true, CEOs have admit, but pilots don't want to hear: every single carrier is going to come out smaller/leaner as a result of this pandemic. There was already waaay too much capacity in the entire system. Hopefully this also means the end of useless capacity dumping base wars (like at SEA).
I don't know what loads you were flying around, but almost all of my flights were 90%+ load factors before all of this. Since then is a different story, but I was seeing too little capacity for demand.
And SEA was always full; most of the time I had commuters on the jumpseat because the flights in/out of SEA were so full.
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Old 04-01-2020, 04:31 AM   #10  
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Anyone who says they know the future is full of it.

We can't predict what will happen in a few weeks, much less a few months or years.
Yep. This crap is changing by the hour. I'm tired of these analysts and arm-chair experts reporting 'news' that they made up in order to have a story to post. It's the same with market analysts trying to call the market. Nobody knows what the hell is going on, and until this virus passes, we won't have any real answers.
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