Excargodog

by which time the AA numbers will be even higher...

Al Czervik

Tell me where AA hurt you.

Excargodog

I’m just reporting numbers. Publicly available numbers. Just like you are reporting industry-wide trends.

No personal animosity whatsoever. I am not in any economic position to drive the market even if I played credit swaps - which I don’t.

When reality changes, I’ll report something different.

Why are you trying to make this personal? I didn’t scratch your anchor...

SFA320

So social distance left to right, but what about front to back!? Last time I commuted the person in front/directly behind me was no where near 6 feet apart. Then when they fully recline we were basically cuddling. But apparently that will save all legacies, and kill all LCCs. I’m getting really burnt out by all these hack theories, opinions, and articles.

Al Czervik

AA carries a lot of debt. It’s been managements tactic to get it while it was cheap. A product of that debt is a lot of infrastructure and a new fleet. DL/UAL’s debt will rise when they do the same. American is now done with the fleet replacement and the capital investments of a new HQ and infrastructure spending. I believe we will see these liabilities occur at UAL/DL.

hoover

this exact thing just happened to me. 3 people one 737 and a guy sits right in front of me. I move and he gives me the stink eye.

KIGECA97531

Management holds their cards pretty close to their vests, but the rumor here at Allegiant is that we break even in the neighborhood of 70 passengers. Our jets hold 156/177/186. If you consider that the legacy airlines have a lot more overhead than we do, I think the theory that this will affect the ULCCs more than the Legacies doesn't hold water.

Excargodog

you are talking strategically while I’m talking tactically. Strategically I totally agree that borrowing cheap money for capital investments is the way to go and newer and more efficient aircraft and more efficient and productive support services is in general the way to go.

but tactically, when everyone is flying at less than 10% of capacity and there is little widebody flying at all, and NOBODY is making money, having a $33 Billion debt to service when you are losing money and you only have $4 billion in cash is still dicier than having $20 Billion debt to service with $5 Billion in cash or $17 Billion to service with only $3 Billion in cash.

Strategically doesn’t count though if your burn rate is so high from having all that fine modern equipment sitting on the tarmac while you are paying for it if you don’t have the income to pay for it. This whole situation may turn around by the end of summer, but I doubt it.

Smart strategic decisions may turn out to be poor tactical ones. And right now there are a lot of fairly modern and efficient aircraft available cheap as the inventory of overseas airlines going bankrupt are being sold off cheap. I’m not wishing ill on American or anyone else, just pointing out that some strategic decisions - however sound they seemed at the time - are carrying more risk in today’s reality.

Al Czervik

You are 100% right. Hope it turns out well.

Excargodog

As do I, Al, as do I.