Airline Stocks Soar on upbeat TSA Data
05-19-2020, 04:58 AM
#11
Line Holder
Joined APC: May 2016
Posts: 78
Originally Posted by drywhitetoast
Once Disney and Las Vegas reopen it's game on.
All airlines were making huge profits at 100% TSA levels from last year....could probably break even at 80%. Mostly domestic carriers could probably break even at 60% of last year.
05-19-2020, 05:13 AM
#12
Bus Driver ordinarie
Joined APC: Aug 2015
Position: Airbus CA
Posts: 555
Rx
Originally Posted by AirBear
The market was up across the board yesterday on Fed Testimony & more importantly; positive vaccine news from the novel Moderna trials.
Whats interesting is the delta (no pun..) across the sector, with AA gaining <10% and Spirit near 25%..
TSA numbers, though inching up are very much in the 'So there's a chance?' column.
This shadows the predictions that domestic leisure travel will pick up before International and high value business; but we have a long way to go before October...
05-19-2020, 05:18 AM
#13
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 472
Originally Posted by ShyGuy
And since this virus is here to stay for quite some time and vaccines at least 12 months away, the airlines have to project to next summer and estimate what travel demand, capacity looks like, and decide on active pilot requirements. That's why furlough numbers are projected for summer 2021 active pilot requirements.
The virus may be here.....then again we may get a vaccine. But airline numbers picking up may overtime become less correlated to the virus being around as people move to normalise their lives independent of its prevalence.
05-19-2020, 05:30 AM
#14
Gets Weekend Reserve
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Posts: 3,611
Sorry, I’m just not seeing the demand not rebounding dramatically once the economy reopens, and we are slowly starting to.
Maybe I’m a glass half full type, but let’s face it... people are tired of being cooped up, and most want to go somewhere, and the millennials and Gen Z generation will happily go into credit debt. Most have no clue how to balance a checkbook, let alone save. As restrictions ease, everything will return. The yields are gonna be bad because it’ll take low fares to lure people back, but they’ll be back and much sooner than summer 2021.
By many accounts, summer bookings still look decent, the question is will the places be open? I think they will. I know it’s in the certain political party’s interest to destroy the economy in the election year to have a better chance to unseat the incumbent, but let’s not go down that path.
2021 might as well be 2051... the gauge is damn near impossible as too far out given the events. And planning for staffing in 2021.... again, out of many models, the planners seem to have chose the same one that said millions will die in this country from Covid ie the absolute worst case scenario.
Maybe I’m a glass half full type, but let’s face it... people are tired of being cooped up, and most want to go somewhere, and the millennials and Gen Z generation will happily go into credit debt. Most have no clue how to balance a checkbook, let alone save. As restrictions ease, everything will return. The yields are gonna be bad because it’ll take low fares to lure people back, but they’ll be back and much sooner than summer 2021.
By many accounts, summer bookings still look decent, the question is will the places be open? I think they will. I know it’s in the certain political party’s interest to destroy the economy in the election year to have a better chance to unseat the incumbent, but let’s not go down that path.
2021 might as well be 2051... the gauge is damn near impossible as too far out given the events. And planning for staffing in 2021.... again, out of many models, the planners seem to have chose the same one that said millions will die in this country from Covid ie the absolute worst case scenario.
05-19-2020, 05:53 AM
#16
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 472
Do you actually think companys are silly enough to be using extreme ferguson models? IDK, they are taking the pragmatic risk averse approach but not the armageddon outlook.
Like I said previously, this could go either way. There is a very real likelyhood that a vaccine will come out while there is a very real chance there wont. So what do you do? You hedge.....how you hedge I have NFI.
Like I said previously, this could go either way. There is a very real likelyhood that a vaccine will come out while there is a very real chance there wont. So what do you do? You hedge.....how you hedge I have NFI.
Last edited by Tom Bradys Cat; 05-19-2020 at 06:10 AM.
05-19-2020, 06:19 AM
#17
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,253
Originally Posted by Tom Bradys Cat
Do you actually think companys are silly enough to be using extreme ferguson models? IDK, they are taking the pragmatic risk averse approach but not the armageddon outlook.
Like I said previously, this could go either way. There is a very real likelyhood that a vaccine will come out while there is a very real chance there wont. So what do you do? You hedge.....how you hedge I have NFI.
Like I said previously, this could go either way. There is a very real likelyhood that a vaccine will come out while there is a very real chance there wont. So what do you do? You hedge.....how you hedge I have NFI.
I suspect some are planning for a decent recovery, with ch.11 as plan B because there's nothing else they can do at that point.
Just because an airline is taking a moderate approach, doesn't mean you're safe. Just means they have nothing better to do... re-arranging the deck chairs to get ready for tomorrow's party while hoping the CA plugs the leak caused by the iceberg.
05-19-2020, 06:55 AM
#18
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2013
Position: Left
Posts: 636
Originally Posted by drywhitetoast
Once Disney and Las Vegas reopen it's game on.
Yeah, then we can add Hawaii, AK, & the National Parks. I think they have empty rooms in Punta Cana too.
Once hospitalizations come down more(trending that way), we can throw the face masks in the dumpster.
05-19-2020, 11:29 AM
#19
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2011
Position: Airbus
Posts: 505
Originally Posted by RJSAviator76
Sorry, I’m just not seeing the demand not rebounding dramatically once the economy reopens, and we are slowly starting to.
Maybe I’m a glass half full type, but let’s face it... people are tired of being cooped up, and most want to go somewhere, and the millennials and Gen Z generation will happily go into credit debt. Most have no clue how to balance a checkbook, let alone save. As restrictions ease, everything will return. The yields are gonna be bad because it’ll take low fares to lure people back, but they’ll be back and much sooner than summer 2021.
Maybe I’m a glass half full type, but let’s face it... people are tired of being cooped up, and most want to go somewhere, and the millennials and Gen Z generation will happily go into credit debt. Most have no clue how to balance a checkbook, let alone save. As restrictions ease, everything will return. The yields are gonna be bad because it’ll take low fares to lure people back, but they’ll be back and much sooner than summer 2021.
05-19-2020, 11:37 AM
#20
Banned
Joined APC: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,222
Originally Posted by RJSAviator76
Sorry, I’m just not seeing the demand not rebounding dramatically once the economy reopens, and we are slowly starting to.
Maybe I’m a glass half full type, but let’s face it... people are tired of being cooped up, and most want to go somewhere, and the millennials and Gen Z generation will happily go into credit debt. Most have no clue how to balance a checkbook, let alone save. As restrictions ease, everything will return. The yields are gonna be bad because it’ll take low fares to lure people back, but they’ll be back and much sooner than summer 2021.
By many accounts, summer bookings still look decent, the question is will the places be open? I think they will. I know it’s in the certain political party’s interest to destroy the economy in the election year to have a better chance to unseat the incumbent, but let’s not go down that path.
2021 might as well be 2051... the gauge is damn near impossible as too far out given the events. And planning for staffing in 2021.... again, out of many models, the planners seem to have chose the same one that said millions will die in this country from Covid ie the absolute worst case scenario.
Maybe I’m a glass half full type, but let’s face it... people are tired of being cooped up, and most want to go somewhere, and the millennials and Gen Z generation will happily go into credit debt. Most have no clue how to balance a checkbook, let alone save. As restrictions ease, everything will return. The yields are gonna be bad because it’ll take low fares to lure people back, but they’ll be back and much sooner than summer 2021.
By many accounts, summer bookings still look decent, the question is will the places be open? I think they will. I know it’s in the certain political party’s interest to destroy the economy in the election year to have a better chance to unseat the incumbent, but let’s not go down that path.
2021 might as well be 2051... the gauge is damn near impossible as too far out given the events. And planning for staffing in 2021.... again, out of many models, the planners seem to have chose the same one that said millions will die in this country from Covid ie the absolute worst case scenario.
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