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Riddler 05-22-2007 08:08 PM

SWA stock price
 
Can someone offer some insight - why is SWA's stock fairly low (it's been below $20 since I've been watching it), yet it's a consistently profitable company? On the other hand, other less profitable airlines have higher stock prices.

the King 05-22-2007 10:52 PM

Probably offers dividends, but doesn't see much fluctuation in the market price. Many larger companies do this. Their stock stays relatively constant, but they turn some of the revenue back to stockholders as dividends consistent with the company's performance. As to why it's much lower than other airlines' stocks, can't say. I'd love to know too.

HSLD 05-22-2007 11:42 PM


Originally Posted by Riddler (Post 169583)
Can someone offer some insight - why is SWA's stock fairly low (it's been below $20 since I've been watching it), yet it's a consistently profitable company? On the other hand, other less profitable airlines have higher stock prices.

Gary Kelly's remark during the 1st quarter earnings call that "...We are facing a 25-30% increase in costs and we’ve never faced that before..." has the analysts attention.

Southwest has always adapted to the market and there is no reason to think that they won't continue to find ways to stay profitable, it's their legacy after all! My guess is that the stock will stay flat until Southwest performs on the revenue side of the balance sheet instead of the historic cost side.



cac737 05-23-2007 01:24 AM


Originally Posted by HSLD (Post 169622)
Gary Kelly's remark during the 1st quarter earnings call that "...We are facing a 25-30% increase in costs and we’ve never faced that before..." has the analysts attention.

Southwest has always adapted to the market and there is no reason to think that they won't continue to find ways to stay profitable, it's their legacy after all! My guess is that the stock will stay flat until Southwest performs on the revenue side of the balance sheet instead of the historic cost side.



Amen to that! that there is what the entire industry is watching. if SWA grows on the revenue side...without going to labor for concessions or cutting back on deliveries, in other words like the above said...."stay off the cost side"....then they would have blazened a new trail that the rest of the industry (labor) will point to and say..."see, SWA has done it....",....the only way to do that is to increase ticket prices which SWA has been keeping low and forcing the majors to do so for years. Once they keep raising their prices, the much slimmer and healthier majors will be right there with em to do the same......making it possible for everyone that took concessions, to now make some back......

my eyes are peeled squarely on SWA for the next 2 years......

kalymnos 05-23-2007 12:05 PM

wall street and large fund managers have better places to put there money, Im not saying SW isnt a great long term vehicle looking at its past performance.....but it aint Google....
The aviation market is heating up and the profits that SW enjoyed during all the others restructuring will take a hit seeing that they are not the only "SW model" on the block now. Wages across the board have put companies in very profitable postions so SW will see major competition now...regards

Beagle_Lover 05-23-2007 12:15 PM

I think the stock has also split like 14 times in its history?

Futureman 05-23-2007 02:00 PM


Originally Posted by kalymnos (Post 169833)
wall street and large fund managers have better places to put there money, Im not saying SW isnt a great long term vehicle looking at its past performance.....but it aint Google....
The aviation market is heating up and the profits that SW enjoyed during all the others restructuring will take a hit seeing that they are not the only "SW model" on the block now. Wages across the board have put companies in very profitable postions so SW will see major competition now...regards

How much of SWA's profit is due to fuel hedging? I bet that it's most if not all of it. Wall Street knows they are set to expire over the next several years. I hope that SWA can raise fares, and that it won't touch salaries. I'm pretty sure that being the highest paying airline isn't part of the LCC model. It will be interesting to see the new TA.

LuvJockey 05-23-2007 02:10 PM


Originally Posted by Futureman (Post 169895)
How much of SWA's profit is due to fuel hedging? I bet that it's most if not all of it. Wall Street knows they are set to expire over the next several years. I hope that SWA can raise fares, and that it won't touch salaries. I'm pretty sure that being the highest paying airline isn't part of the LCC model. It will be interesting to see the new TA.

People have been waiting on SWA fuel hedges to expire for many years. SWA was hedging well back before 2000, when it accounted for 20% of our earnings. SWA currently has hedging contracts through 2012. If you want an eye opener, compare SWA CASM vs. any other major airline, and let me know what you find...Here's a clue - we aren't taking pay concessions.

HuronIP 05-23-2007 03:05 PM


Originally Posted by Futureman (Post 169895)
How much of SWA's profit is due to fuel hedging? I bet that it's most if not all of it. Wall Street knows they are set to expire over the next several years. I hope that SWA can raise fares, and that it won't touch salaries. I'm pretty sure that being the highest paying airline isn't part of the LCC model. It will be interesting to see the new TA.

The only reason SWA is the highest paying in the industry is because all of the Legacy carriers took huge cuts. I'm not an expert, but I'm sure that SWA's labor cost’s are in line with the company’s business plan.

LabDad 05-23-2007 03:32 PM

Read the quarterly and yearly SEC filings...
 

Originally Posted by Futureman (Post 169895)
How much of SWA's profit is due to fuel hedging? I bet that it's most if not all of it. Wall Street knows they are set to expire over the next several years. I hope that SWA can raise fares, and that it won't touch salaries. I'm pretty sure that being the highest paying airline isn't part of the LCC model. It will be interesting to see the new TA.

Read the quarterly and yearly SEC filings, they are very straightforward. Southwest also states their CASM exclusive of fuel, and when you compare that figure to their competition you see Southwest is in VERY good shape. Southwest is about the best managed passenger airline in the business, and luck has nothing to do with it.

I'm betting Southwest will raise fares as needed.


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