GPullR

Do you know the significance of 10% of normal revenue??

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sanicom3205

No, but I think it is a very important factor that is being ignored in his equation.

sanicom3205

40% pax, 70% pax, 10% revenue. Which number are you forecasting they are going to furlough proportionately to? You say the math is simple but give zero details

KIGECA97531

This is simply not true. Not all airlines are equal, some are in very different economic situations.

Most likely, the legacy airlines will shrink and the LCC/ULCC airlines will grow to fill the vacuum. The regionals will fare worst of all. It's very likely that the only regionals to emerge from this will be the AA WOs, Endeavor, SkyWest, and Republic.

GPullR

So you are saying with a predicted 40% , hell ill give you 50% of normal pax loads lcc are going to stay the same size or grow???

3 big ones will take it on the chin worse but what you don't see is the amount of cargo flights they are operating over sees, its quite large.

No LCC is going to be anywhere near the previous numbers for a year or 2. If you think the companies want to just keep people around to be nice you are highly mistaken.

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GPullR

40% predicted pax load by furlough day, October 1st. 70% by summer 2021. 10-15% as of this month revenue compared to last year same time. 2 are majority predictions and the other is fact. Check the TSA numbers if you need some help with numbers.

Most analysts are now saying full recovery to 2019 levels 2-3 years.

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2StgTurbine

When have airlines ever been staffed correctly? Pilots always seem to think airlines will need more people and airline management always think they can get by with less. During recessions, airlines have always preferred to cancel a flight due to insufficient staffing than carry extra pilots.

And sure furloughs cost more money in the long term when compared to early outs, but furloughs save money NOW, and that is what is important. Asking management for a good early out package or pointing out that a 12 month furlough will cost the airline more money in the future is the equivalent if telling someone who lives paycheck to paycheck that a car loan will cost more than paying for the car upfront.

I predict that airlines will furlough and they will furlough more than they should. And when they recall, they will start the process too late. They will also assume their training department will handle more than it really can. Once we are well into the recovery and it is clear we are playing catch up, don't worry, you will get an email from a new management team explaining that the previous management furloughed too many but no one could have known that at the time. For the rest of your career, you will get the satisfaction of telling everyone who fly with that you were right.

2StgTurbine

I wouldn't say most. The ranges are all over the place. No one really knows and for industries with large operating expenses (like airlines), it is better to be late to the party. If an airline positions itself for a recovery 2 years from now, but that recover doesn't come until 4 years, they will run out of money. Instead, they will plan for the more conservative recovery estimates. If it turns out the economy is rebounding quicker, then they will offer premium pay for a few years until they can increase staffing. Sure, they might miss out on some potential growth into new markets and they might pi$$ off some customers due to increased cancellations, but that is better than running out of money before the recovery.

KIGECA97531

Sounds like you're yet another FordHarrison troll spreading FUD on the pilot forums. Yawn.

Notarealpilot

Here at F9 we’re already pulling planes out of the desert plan is of now to have the whole fleet back in the air by July.