Squeakygreaser

It sounds to me like we are going to have a number of viable vaccines being distributed by the start of the new year. We may also reach a natural reduction in new cases by that time as well. However, when you look at professional Industry analysts, Goldman Sachs, IATA etc... They predict that it will be about another two years before the demand for travel, even domestically recovers. I don't understand why that should be, it seems like it would recover pretty quickly after the threat is gone.

How long do you think the recovery will take after this virus is gone?

chesty

Nov 4 the media will have lost and go onto other things

CAirBear

We went from a low of 86,000 in mid April to 750k by July 4th. It has flatten out in the 600-700k range now.

If/when a vaccine is out, I don’t see it taking long at all to climb back over a million or so a day and then keep climbing.

My airline is going to furlough some. They are right sizing for now, but expect Summer 2021 to be back to where they want to be.

Only time will tell.

senecacaptain

1. we presently have no vaccine, period, the end. No matter what corporate press offices release to hungry sharks on wall street who gobble up shares.

2. after the virus is gone? see #1.

with that said....

ALPA, IATA, airline CEOs are all saying 3+ years.

Note that if the general economy is disrupted there will be no business deals to go have meetings about, or extra money to visit Disney World. As people learn to "live without airline travel" and adopt Zoom/WebEX, rent RVs, drive their cars on road trips, it may be hard to put the genie back in the bottle.

all the airline CEO's are talking about "this opportunity" to "rightsize" etc etc MBA speak. what happened in the financial crisis of 2007-2009, corporate america companies (non-airline) did not hire until they needed like 3 bodies, then they hired only 1. Etc. they were very slow to spool back up into hiring mode.

this has become a should versus need situation. Even if we have a vaccine, folks will be asking "Do I need to airline travel for XYZ reason [business meeting, vacation, etc.]" then asking "Should I travel via airline"

chrisreedrules

Insightful post that mirrors my thoughts. We are witnessing a paradigm shift in air travel and our society. Such things are hardly recognized except through the looking glass years in the future. But they are often painful societal events.

Downtime

Kinda. For business a the questions of do we need to travel will be yes for many. Conferences will resume because like in healthcare unless you are Kimberly Clark for instance you need your name out there. Another reality is it is rare to find family that’s live close anymore. My family for instance theta are seven cousins. Of that only two of us live in driving distance to our parents. The rest are at least two hours away by plane. None of the siblings divided as groups of 2, 3, and 2 have less then a two hour plane ride to see the each other. For most of us it is closer to three. Zoom isn’t gonna replace that. Whenever there is crisis people start stating all the ways life will never be the same yet humans always shift back to being social pack creatures.

mkitrn

If anyone thinks the insta youths are going to settle for a road trip to the Adirondacks for summer vacay indefinitely you are vastly discounting the materialistic identity of today’s youth. Also if you think after post vaccine a firm is going to have only have zoom meetings with a surprise delivery of Harry and David’s pears instead of ordering everything on the menu for a client at Morton’s you are also underestimating the corporate competitiveness of America. Yes do we send Luis and Burkin bags secretly to clients personal home addresses during the holidays to get around a gift ban yes. Does that matter as much as getting the client and their potential clients who tag along drunk at dinner no..... zoom and corporate client relations is a joke. Any firm that thinks that is going to be it moving forward is going to be sadly mistaken when I rape and pillage every last account they have..

iceman21

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ this!

Knobcrk1

Besides the pandemic where passengers won’t fly due to Saftey, there’s also the economic concern of out of work people and ones that downsize their discretionary spending. This is not anywhere close to being even stabilized yet and it’s already been like 5 months, I think we will be lucky if things get back to normal in two years.

cezzna

Permanent panic is a way of life now. If it isn’t COVID, it will be BLM, or something new. The world is snowflaking and it isn’t going to end soon. I’m employed 91/135 and I’m cross training into the medical world. I think we’re screwed for a good long time. If Covid-19 magically disappeared tomorrow, at least 25% of the population will snowflake over this for the rest of their lives and never return to functional living.