![So how BADLY will [Testing] hurt the Big 3?](/iconimages/major/so-how-badly-will-testing-hurt-big-3-a_ltr.gif)
So how BADLY will [Testing] hurt the Big 3?
01-15-2021, 07:00 PM
#31
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Originally Posted by Big E 757
Oh, come on. The knowledge related to everything COVID has gone from zero to infinity in 11 months. If he isn’t a COVID specialist or Dr. Fauci himself, I’m sure he can give one piece of incorrect information, and still be a competent, professional Doctor.
01-15-2021, 07:20 PM
#32
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Joined APC: Nov 2013
Position: A320 Left seat
Posts: 2,579
Originally Posted by Excargodog
In FAIRNESS, as an ER doc he is generally seeing a population who are SYMPTOMATIC which makes the predictive value of a test much higher than it is when the same test is used to screen an asymptomatic population. Nonetheless, Bayes law has been around since the middle of the 1700s and it applies to ALL clinical testing, not merely to COVID.
I tried reading the article you posted about Bayes Law. I just couldn’t wrap my head around it. I was looking at the equations and trying to make sense of it. It made me feel pretty stupid. So thank you.
The abstract math that exists without any numbers has never been my strong suit though, but then again, the type with numbers hasn’t been my friend much either.
01-15-2021, 08:25 PM
#33
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Originally Posted by Big E 757
I didn’t catch the “emergency medicine” part. Still, maybe he hasn’t spoken about this in a while and his father made the statement back in March.
I tried reading the article you posted about Bayes Law. I just couldn’t wrap my head around it. I was looking at the equations and trying to make sense of it. It made me feel pretty stupid. So thank you. The abstract math that exists without any numbers has never been my strong suit though, but then again, the type with numbers hasn’t been my friend much either.
I tried reading the article you posted about Bayes Law. I just couldn’t wrap my head around it. I was looking at the equations and trying to make sense of it. It made me feel pretty stupid. So thank you.
The abstract math that exists without any numbers has never been my strong suit though, but then again, the type with numbers hasn’t been my friend much either.https://youtu.be/VuskwsIW02M
Or just a little hotel viewing, since there aren’t a lot of places you can go out for dinner currently. The key parts people have difficulty with are the definitions of sensitivity and specificity, and how to apply them. But you can also substitute arbitrary easy to deal with numbers (a population of 100,000 for instance) into the calculations just for the purpose of understanding the concept) and it becomes much easier.
01-16-2021, 06:22 AM
#34
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Joined APC: Jan 2008
Position: Pilot
Posts: 2,625
Originally Posted by Big E 757
Oh, come on. The knowledge related to everything COVID has gone from zero to infinity in 11 months. If he isn’t a COVID specialist or Dr. Fauci himself, I’m sure he can give one piece of incorrect information, and still be a competent, professional Doctor.
01-17-2021, 12:56 PM
#36
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Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 1,326
Am I the only one who flies airplanes for a living and doesn’t think he’s an expert on everything else? I mean......if I were talking to a doctor, and he told me his “expert opinion” regarding aviation because of something his dad “who is an airline pilot” said........I would just laugh at him. Because second hand expertise is about as useful as cotton balls are for wiping your arse.
01-17-2021, 01:44 PM
#37
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Joined APC: Nov 2012
Position: 1900D CA
Posts: 3,391
Originally Posted by ReadOnly7
Am I the only one who flies airplanes for a living and doesn’t think he’s an expert on everything else? I mean......if I were talking to a doctor, and he told me his “expert opinion” regarding aviation because of something his dad “who is an airline pilot” said........I would just laugh at him. Because second hand expertise is about as useful as cotton balls are for wiping your arse.
A women yells "Is anyone here a Doctor!?"
a man slowly puts his hand up and says "Well, I'm a pilot"
01-17-2021, 02:07 PM
#38
Super Moderator
Joined APC: Jun 2006
Posts: 3,945
Back on topic:
Wife and I considered Aruba again. Aside from the fear of a potential positive and family of 4 quarantine abroad- there is the cost. They have two of their facilities that will test at your hotel for a cost of $125. So in addition to all of the unknown, one known is $500 in testing for a family of four to come home. Hopefully.
International is definitely out for us for February vacation, and we are seasoned travelers. I’d imagine until this process gets free and completely painless, most will be on the same page as us.
Wife and I considered Aruba again. Aside from the fear of a potential positive and family of 4 quarantine abroad- there is the cost. They have two of their facilities that will test at your hotel for a cost of $125. So in addition to all of the unknown, one known is $500 in testing for a family of four to come home. Hopefully.
International is definitely out for us for February vacation, and we are seasoned travelers. I’d imagine until this process gets free and completely painless, most will be on the same page as us.
01-17-2021, 04:33 PM
#39
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Joined APC: Feb 2020
Posts: 175
Originally Posted by ReadOnly7
Am I the only one who flies airplanes for a living and doesn’t think he’s an expert on everything else?
01-17-2021, 04:44 PM
#40
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Joined APC: Apr 2017
Posts: 3,588
Originally Posted by APCHCLIMB
This might be the idea actually. Keep travelers inside the USA to stimulate economic demand. As opposed to outside demand. Might hurt the big 3 but benefit the LCCs.
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