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Gone Flying 09-13-2021 09:59 AM


Originally Posted by BeatNavy (Post 3294497)
What would those numbers be without payroll support? https://apnews.com/article/business-...5be1e35a8caf6f

“$1.5bil from PSP and other one time events” change the numbers you posted above significantly.

Also, I read elsewhere that 2H2021 CapEx will increase by $700m due to the a350s/739s being added to the fleet.

And to be clear I’m not hating on delta here. They are still in the best position imo and maybe still the best run of the legacies (not a fan of Ed, to be clear). But, nobody, including Delta, is out of the woods, and I think Q3 and the first part of Q4 will be rough for everyone. Just as summer exceeded expectations across the industry, the post-summer booking drop off has also exceeded expectations, in the wrong direction.


I agree with what you are saying, I’m just saying based off what I am reading, I do expect delta to post a Q3 profit. Not a big one, but I think it will be there. I agree we are hardly out of the woods and as long as ThE vArIaNtS keep getting hyped non stop my the MSM I don’t think we will be too comfortable at the airlines.

dera 09-13-2021 02:17 PM

Big 3 all would be losing around 1.5 billion / quarter without the PSP money. If and when that dries out, all this talk about "doing alright" will disappear, unless the world stops being nuts.

CBreezy 09-13-2021 02:40 PM


Originally Posted by dera (Post 3294651)
Big 3 all would be losing around 1.5 billion / quarter without the PSP money. If and when that dries out, all this talk about "doing alright" will disappear, unless the world stops being nuts.

You don't think that money is accounted for? You think as soon as they use it all, the CEOs will say, oops, we forgot! I guess instead of a profit, we're now losing Billions! Our bad.

I know Delta CEO lobbied against the CARES 3.0 and used his projected future profitability as a reason to oppose it. It would be probably close to criminally negligent to mislead the investors like that.

dera 09-13-2021 02:51 PM


Originally Posted by CBreezy (Post 3294665)
You don't think that money is accounted for? You think as soon as they use it all, the CEOs will say, oops, we forgot! I guess instead of a profit, we're now losing Billions! Our bad.

I know Delta CEO lobbied against the CARES 3.0 and used his projected future profitability as a reason to oppose it. It would be probably close to criminally negligent to mislead the investors like that.

So where are they getting this 1.5 billion to replace it with? "projected future profitability" was a thing before the summer remember? Now it has turned into "lower than expected yields and loads".

This is far from over.

CBreezy 09-13-2021 03:07 PM


Originally Posted by dera (Post 3294668)
So where are they getting this 1.5 billion to replace it with? "projected future profitability" was a thing before the summer remember? Now it has turned into "lower than expected yields and loads".

This is far from over.

Google doesn't work on your computer?

https://news.delta.com/delta-air-lines-announces-june-quarter-2021-financial-results

hoover 09-13-2021 03:12 PM

Also look to see what airlines are in negotiations that are claiming bookings are dropping off and wont be profitable. WN said that 3rd quarter they wont make a profit then next week said they want to get a whole bunch of new planes. Now if those pesky pilots would just take a neutral contract we can get those planes!

dualinput 09-13-2021 04:37 PM

Did anyone see the football stadiums over the last two weeks. This thing is done. People are over it. I just booked my spring break and the ski resorts have no plans for any restrictions this winter. Oh and I bought three tickets on Delta. Hopefully they’ll let me Jumpseat as a prize.

flysnoopy76 09-13-2021 05:28 PM


Originally Posted by dera (Post 3294668)
So where are they getting this 1.5 billion to replace it with? "projected future profitability" was a thing before the summer remember? Now it has turned into "lower than expected yields and loads".

This is far from over.

Totally agree, anyone who thinks all the rainbow and unicorn hiring projections will come to fruition better hope for some big changes very soon, otherwise as we saw in 2019 that can turn into projected furloughs really quickly, particularly at carriers with limited retirements.

DeltaboundRedux 09-13-2021 06:24 PM

An extra “passport” for domestic travel will surely have an impact.

Not arguing pro/con, but as a national policy, making that a requirement to travel is going to put a dent in bookings.

It could also be a fig leaf to go back to the trough for more CARES.

hoover 09-13-2021 06:27 PM


Originally Posted by dualinput (Post 3294714)
Did anyone see the football stadiums over the last two weeks. This thing is done. People are over it. I just booked my spring break and the ski resorts have no plans for any restrictions this winter. Oh and I bought three tickets on Delta. Hopefully they’ll let me Jumpseat as a prize.

completely agree. My county has issued a mask order and no business will enforce it. About half the people wear one yet nobody goes "karen" on those who dont.
I'm in NYC right now and I havent seen one place enforce the vaccination mandate. Businesses know that if they start enforcing that crap they will be out of business. 75% of minorities in NYC haven't gotten the shot. That's a lot of people to refuse service to

cactipilot 09-13-2021 06:39 PM


Originally Posted by labbats (Post 3286631)
Everything happening now reminds me of being in college and putting everything on a credit card.

Needless to say that didn’t work out too well.

Is it time to sit America down, like a loving parent, and say "okay, son, Here's the bankruptcy attorney's number... let's learn from this and not let it happen again"?

HPIC 09-13-2021 08:48 PM


Originally Posted by dualinput (Post 3294714)
Did anyone see the football stadiums over the last two weeks. This thing is done. People are over it. I just booked my spring break and the ski resorts have no plans for any restrictions this winter. Oh and I bought three tickets on Delta. Hopefully they’ll let me Jumpseat as a prize.

I was at one of those games…everybody is sick and tired of all the restrictions. There were Democrats, Republicans, and Libertarians alike. There were a lot of political disagreements…but from the perspective of keeping everything open and no BS lockdowns or limitations we were ALL on the same page.

at6d 09-13-2021 10:34 PM

I see the same everywhere. Was in Milwaukee, Nashville, and Phoenix this last trip. People are over it.

dera 09-14-2021 02:08 AM


Originally Posted by CBreezy (Post 3294676)
Google doesn't work on your computer?

https://news.delta.com/delta-air-lin...ancial-results

Did you even read that? They would have lost almost 1 billion without the PSP. Passenger revenue down over 50% from 2019.

CBreezy 09-14-2021 02:14 AM


Originally Posted by dera (Post 3294830)
Did you even read that? They would have lost almost 1 billion without the PSP. Passenger revenue down over 50% from 2019.

Of course I did. In case you missed the relevant part:

Adjusted pre-tax loss of $881 million excludes $1.5 billion of benefit related to the first and second payroll support program extensions (PSP2 and PSP3, respectively) and mark-to-market adjustments on our investments
So, claiming that they somehow are going to forget they even got the money is clearly wrong

zyzz 09-14-2021 09:21 AM


Originally Posted by CBreezy (Post 3294831)
Of course I did. In case you missed the relevant part:

Adjusted pre-tax loss of $881 million excludes $1.5 billion of benefit related to the first and second payroll support program extensions (PSP2 and PSP3, respectively) and mark-to-market adjustments on our investments
So, claiming that they somehow are going to forget they even got the money is clearly wrong

You’re pretty arrogant for how wrong you are all the time.

CBreezy 09-14-2021 09:42 AM


Originally Posted by zyzz (Post 3295033)
You’re pretty arrogant for how wrong you are all the time.

I could say the same thing about you. You seem to be pretty clueless.

TransWorld 09-14-2021 01:10 PM

Guys, settle down.

Al Czervik 09-14-2021 03:10 PM


Originally Posted by zyzz (Post 3295033)
You’re pretty arrogant for how wrong you are all the time.

You sound like my wife.

zyzz 09-14-2021 03:17 PM


Originally Posted by Al Czervik (Post 3295171)
You sound like my wife.


hahah

(filler)

Owlchemist 09-20-2021 04:17 PM

It's great that "people are over it" (I feel like I've heard that since about week 3 of all of this) but until business travel comes back in earnest the legacies are going struggle to turn any kind of profit.

Al Czervik 09-21-2021 04:22 AM


Originally Posted by Owlchemist (Post 3297895)
It's great that "people are over it" (I feel like I've heard that since about week 3 of all of this) but until business travel comes back in earnest the legacies are going struggle to turn any kind of profit.

I’m seeing more and more suits in the airport.

Iceberg 09-21-2021 08:49 AM


Originally Posted by Al Czervik (Post 3298033)
I’m seeing more and more suits in the airport.

Those are just pilots going to interviews.

Gone Flying 09-21-2021 09:24 AM


Originally Posted by Iceberg (Post 3298138)
Those are just pilots going to interviews.

also not a bad thing

Texasbound 09-21-2021 11:30 AM


Originally Posted by Gone Flying (Post 3298164)
also not a bad thing

For regionals.

fadec 09-23-2021 12:01 PM

Losers panic sold everything in April 2020, still hoping for a dip. That's all this is.


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