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CBreezy 09-13-2021 07:14 AM


Originally Posted by zyzz (Post 3294383)
Have you seen the balance sheet of the big 3? I don’t think they’re doing “alright”.

I said alright. Not great. Not good. Manageable. According to several articles published in the last few days most airlines will be close to profitable or profitable in 3Q. Most did adjust their forecasts but most lowered them to the bottom of their window and expect a single digit percent decrease in revenue from the original forecast.

Gone Flying 09-13-2021 07:22 AM


Originally Posted by ChoppedTone (Post 3294392)
Yup, None are expecting to turn a profit on Q3 or 4 this year. Fingers crossed for 2022!? Maybe…

I believe DL is expecting to report a profit fo q3.

flysnoopy76 09-13-2021 07:45 AM


Originally Posted by ChoppedTone (Post 3294374)
It’s been almost 2 years since pax airlines have turned a profit yet they are all hiring at record #s. With the CARES money drying up and no end in sight with travel restrictions loosening up, how long can these airlines lasts non profitable before we start hearing the B word, or F words again?

I agree, I suspect all the hiring is rolling the dice on normalcy in 2022. Things are unlikely to much different next year in my opinion, and if that’s the case I think things will change on the hiring front. I’ve been at my airline for 4+years and I wouldn’t be surprised if ultimately I’m furloughed.

BeatNavy 09-13-2021 08:11 AM


Originally Posted by Gone Flying (Post 3294421)
I believe DL is expecting to report a profit fo q3.

5 days ago DL just said their Q3 earnings would be on the low side of guidance due to a large drop in bookings. Not sure what they guided exactly, but their Q2 numbers were still in the negative territory without payroll support to the tune of almost a $700mil loss. Couple that with rising costs with all the hiring and bringing people back over the last few months…not sure it will be a great earnings report (not just for delta, but for all airlines).

GogglesPisano 09-13-2021 08:14 AM

In other news -- the summer travel season is over.

BeatNavy 09-13-2021 08:32 AM


Originally Posted by GogglesPisano (Post 3294451)
In other news -- the summer travel season is over.

I think Q3 guidance would take that into account, no?

CBreezy 09-13-2021 08:42 AM


Originally Posted by BeatNavy (Post 3294448)
5 days ago DL just said their Q3 earnings would be on the low side of guidance due to a large drop in bookings. Not sure what they guided exactly, but their Q2 numbers were still in the negative territory without payroll support to the tune of almost a $700mil loss. Couple that with rising costs with all the hiring and bringing people back over the last few months…not sure it will be a great earnings report (not just for delta, but for all airlines).

"Delta Air Lines said it will likely post pretax profit when it reports results on Oct. 13, though it forecast revenue at the lower end of its forecast range"

Gone Flying 09-13-2021 08:52 AM


Originally Posted by BeatNavy (Post 3294448)
5 days ago DL just said their Q3 earnings would be on the low side of guidance due to a large drop in bookings. Not sure what they guided exactly, but their Q2 numbers were still in the negative territory without payroll support to the tune of almost a $700mil loss. Couple that with rising costs with all the hiring and bringing people back over the last few months…not sure it will be a great earnings report (not just for delta, but for all airlines).

the guidance I saw was Q3 EPS was projected to be somewhere between .66 and -.02

id be shocked if they don’t have a Q3 profit based on what I have been reading.

also I believe the only reason we were not profitable in q2 was due to write downs.

PTAX income was +700m
EBITDA was +900m
gross profit was -100m

BeatNavy 09-13-2021 09:13 AM


Originally Posted by Gone Flying (Post 3294485)
the guidance I saw was Q3 EPS was projected to be somewhere between .66 and -.02

id be shocked if they don’t have a Q3 profit based on what I have been reading.

also I believe the only reason we were not profitable in q2 was due to write downs.

PTAX income was +700m
EBITDA was +900m
gross profit was -100m

What would those numbers be without payroll support? https://apnews.com/article/business-...5be1e35a8caf6f

“$1.5bil from PSP and other one time events” change the numbers you posted above significantly.

Also, I read elsewhere that 2H2021 CapEx will increase by $700m due to the a350s/739s being added to the fleet.

And to be clear I’m not hating on delta here. They are still in the best position imo and maybe still the best run of the legacies (not a fan of Ed, to be clear). But, nobody, including Delta, is out of the woods, and I think Q3 and the first part of Q4 will be rough for everyone. Just as summer exceeded expectations across the industry, the post-summer booking drop off has also exceeded expectations, in the wrong direction.

GogglesPisano 09-13-2021 09:14 AM


Originally Posted by BeatNavy (Post 3294466)
I think Q3 guidance would take that into account, no?

My post was in reference to the OP.


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