Airline Pilot Central Forums

Airline Pilot Central Forums (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/)
-   Major (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/major/)
-   -   TSA Sees Lowest Travel #'s Since May (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/major/134830-tsa-sees-lowest-travel-s-since-may.html)

AirBear 08-27-2021 08:53 AM

TSA Sees Lowest Travel #'s Since May
 
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/air-tra...Coo2BsSbatJ9t8

Farmlover 08-27-2021 09:03 AM

Schools are starting as well.

Voski 08-27-2021 09:23 AM


Originally Posted by Farmlover (Post 3286371)
Schools are starting as well.

Part of it is definitely seasonal. According to the TSA, we're roughly up 1 million passengers per day from where we were in 2020, but still ~700K per day short of where we were in 2019. Business travel is anemic and international travel is [obviously] not what it was.

usernamehere 08-27-2021 10:24 AM

I remember just hoping for 1 million a day.

CincoDeMayo 08-27-2021 11:20 AM

Could also title this thread

“End of busy summer travel season is lowest since the beginning of the summer travel season”

Myfingershurt 08-27-2021 11:46 AM


Originally Posted by CincoDeMayo (Post 3286435)
Could also title this thread

“End of busy summer travel season is lowest since the beginning of the summer travel season”

That doesn’t instill the fear and panic that need to be conferred.

Aero1900 08-27-2021 11:48 AM


Originally Posted by CincoDeMayo (Post 3286435)
Could also title this thread

“End of busy summer travel season is lowest since the beginning of the summer travel season”

Bookings are down for to the resurgence in Covid.

Frontier and Southwest have both publicly said future bookings have dropped significantly as the stupid Delta variant spreads.

Covid cases are back to to nearly their all time high. I'm guessing the spike will drop off again rapidly like it did last time, and hopefully before the holiday travel season starts!

But yes, I'm sure that a chunk of the drop in TSA screenings is due to summer break being over.

hercretired 08-27-2021 11:50 AM

Summer is over

Delta variant is not helping

Business travel as we used to know it is changed forever.

It is what it is

Voski 08-27-2021 11:56 AM


Originally Posted by hercretired (Post 3286453)
Summer is over

Delta variant is not helping

Business travel as we used to know it is changed forever.

It is what it is

Changed forever? Maybe. The verdict is still out, but you may be right. If that's the case, the U.S. legacy carriers are going to have to adapt.

hercretired 08-27-2021 12:49 PM


Originally Posted by Voski (Post 3286456)
Changed forever? Maybe. The verdict is still out, but you may be right. If that's the case, the U.S. legacy carriers are going to have to adapt.

just quoting airline CEOs who are proudly talking about how they are "reinventing" things and "looking towards the future, not the rearview mirror" etc etc blah blah

trip 08-27-2021 01:26 PM

The rent is due again.

CincoDeMayo 08-27-2021 03:17 PM


Originally Posted by trip (Post 3286528)
The rent is due again.

Good.

This FANTASY land that deferring rent indefinitely is somehow helping people.

labbats 08-27-2021 04:55 PM

Everything happening now reminds me of being in college and putting everything on a credit card.

Needless to say that didn’t work out too well.

saxman66 08-27-2021 06:38 PM

Like everything we can’t predict, business travel will come back somewhere in the middle. Every corporate friend I have is eager to get back in the office at least sometimes. My SO use to travel twice a month is eager to at least fly sometimes and see her coworkers instead of on a screen.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

AirBear 08-29-2021 09:59 AM

I don't know about the normal business travelers but the wealthy ones are flying like crazy. NetJets has had to suspend 25hr flight card sales on all fleet types now because they can't keep up with the demand. And hiring plans for 2021 have gone from 100 to 300 pilots. FSI is training instructors as fast as they can get them (which isn't easy with current demand for pilots) to support the rush of initial ground schools.

TrojanCMH 08-29-2021 10:07 AM


Originally Posted by AirBear (Post 3287415)
I don't know about the normal business travelers but the wealthy ones are flying like crazy. NetJets has had to suspend 25hr flight card sales on all fleet types now because they can't keep up with the demand. And hiring plans for 2021 have gone from 100 to 300 pilots. FSI is training instructors as fast as they can get them (which isn't easy with current demand for pilots) to support the rush of initial ground schools.


NetJets… the common man’s airline.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

MartyM 08-30-2021 05:46 AM


Originally Posted by labbats (Post 3286631)
Everything happening now reminds me of being in college and putting everything on a credit card.

Needless to say that didn’t work out too well.

Free money! Have an initial $2000 limit in college, that's $2000 you have to spend :)

Oh wait, you mean I have to pay this back?

RckyMtHigh 08-30-2021 06:31 AM


Originally Posted by labbats (Post 3286631)
Everything happening now reminds me of being in college and putting everything on a credit card.

Needless to say that didn’t work out too well.

Got my first credit card in college and immediately maxed it out. Probably paid 2 or 3 times that in interest before paying it off. Learned my lesson though, ever since then I’ve paid off my credit cards in full every month.

Personally I think travel was going to fall off regardless of this new delta variant. People that could took their one trip, then reality sunk back in. The bills always come due and a lot of people have taken a financial hit in the last year. I’m not so sure the industry is in the clear yet.

biigD 08-30-2021 06:52 AM


Originally Posted by RckyMtHigh (Post 3287749)
Got my first credit card in college and immediately maxed it out. Probably paid 2 or 3 times that in interest before paying it off. Learned my lesson though, ever since then I’ve paid off my credit cards in full every month.

Same for me - got the stupid out of my system at an early age. Well, at least when it comes to my finances. :)

Myfingershurt 08-30-2021 07:55 AM

So…back on topic. Yesterday surpassed 2019 numbers. Of course 2019 numbers were probably day before Labor Day, but whatever.

ShyGuy 08-30-2021 08:01 AM

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/e...hnk/index.html

Myfingershurt 08-30-2021 08:04 AM


Originally Posted by ShyGuy (Post 3287806)

There’s a shocker. Ok, we got their summer tourism dollars, back in the penalty box!

CBreezy 08-31-2021 06:57 AM


Originally Posted by Myfingershurt (Post 3287801)
So…back on topic. Yesterday surpassed 2019 numbers. Of course 2019 numbers were probably day before Labor Day, but whatever.

Wasn't labor day Sept 7 last year?

Myfingershurt 08-31-2021 07:13 AM


Originally Posted by CBreezy (Post 3288318)
Wasn't labor day Sept 7 last year?

Last year wasn’t 2019

CBreezy 09-06-2021 01:38 PM


Originally Posted by Myfingershurt (Post 3288328)
Last year wasn’t 2019

Yuuuup. That checks out

ChoppedTone 09-13-2021 05:31 AM

How long can this last?
 
It’s been almost 2 years since pax airlines have turned a profit yet they are all hiring at record #s. With the CARES money drying up and no end in sight with travel restrictions loosening up, how long can these airlines lasts non profitable before we start hearing the B word, or F words again?

CBreezy 09-13-2021 05:41 AM


Originally Posted by ChoppedTone (Post 3294374)
It’s been almost 2 years since pax airlines have turned a profit yet they are all hiring at record #s. With the CARES money drying up and no end in sight with travel restrictions loosening up, how long can these airlines lasts non profitable before we start hearing the B word, or F words again?

What you're saying doesn't match the reality of the current operating environment, although I would not rule out one airline bankruptcy. The airlines, while not operating at a ridiculous profit are, more or less, doing alright.

zyzz 09-13-2021 05:49 AM


Originally Posted by CBreezy (Post 3294378)
What you're saying doesn't match the reality of the current operating environment, although I would not rule out one airline bankruptcy. The airlines, while not operating at a ridiculous profit are, more or less, doing alright.


Have you seen the balance sheet of the big 3? I don’t think they’re doing “alright”.

ChoppedTone 09-13-2021 06:09 AM


Originally Posted by zyzz (Post 3294383)
Have you seen the balance sheet of the big 3? I don’t think they’re doing “alright”.

Yup, None are expecting to turn a profit on Q3 or 4 this year. Fingers crossed for 2022!? Maybe…

RiddleEagle18 09-13-2021 06:57 AM

If you take every year September and put it against may, guess what happens. “TSA sees lowest numbers since May”


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

CBreezy 09-13-2021 07:14 AM


Originally Posted by zyzz (Post 3294383)
Have you seen the balance sheet of the big 3? I don’t think they’re doing “alright”.

I said alright. Not great. Not good. Manageable. According to several articles published in the last few days most airlines will be close to profitable or profitable in 3Q. Most did adjust their forecasts but most lowered them to the bottom of their window and expect a single digit percent decrease in revenue from the original forecast.

Gone Flying 09-13-2021 07:22 AM


Originally Posted by ChoppedTone (Post 3294392)
Yup, None are expecting to turn a profit on Q3 or 4 this year. Fingers crossed for 2022!? Maybe…

I believe DL is expecting to report a profit fo q3.

flysnoopy76 09-13-2021 07:45 AM


Originally Posted by ChoppedTone (Post 3294374)
It’s been almost 2 years since pax airlines have turned a profit yet they are all hiring at record #s. With the CARES money drying up and no end in sight with travel restrictions loosening up, how long can these airlines lasts non profitable before we start hearing the B word, or F words again?

I agree, I suspect all the hiring is rolling the dice on normalcy in 2022. Things are unlikely to much different next year in my opinion, and if that’s the case I think things will change on the hiring front. I’ve been at my airline for 4+years and I wouldn’t be surprised if ultimately I’m furloughed.

BeatNavy 09-13-2021 08:11 AM


Originally Posted by Gone Flying (Post 3294421)
I believe DL is expecting to report a profit fo q3.

5 days ago DL just said their Q3 earnings would be on the low side of guidance due to a large drop in bookings. Not sure what they guided exactly, but their Q2 numbers were still in the negative territory without payroll support to the tune of almost a $700mil loss. Couple that with rising costs with all the hiring and bringing people back over the last few months…not sure it will be a great earnings report (not just for delta, but for all airlines).

GogglesPisano 09-13-2021 08:14 AM

In other news -- the summer travel season is over.

BeatNavy 09-13-2021 08:32 AM


Originally Posted by GogglesPisano (Post 3294451)
In other news -- the summer travel season is over.

I think Q3 guidance would take that into account, no?

CBreezy 09-13-2021 08:42 AM


Originally Posted by BeatNavy (Post 3294448)
5 days ago DL just said their Q3 earnings would be on the low side of guidance due to a large drop in bookings. Not sure what they guided exactly, but their Q2 numbers were still in the negative territory without payroll support to the tune of almost a $700mil loss. Couple that with rising costs with all the hiring and bringing people back over the last few months…not sure it will be a great earnings report (not just for delta, but for all airlines).

"Delta Air Lines said it will likely post pretax profit when it reports results on Oct. 13, though it forecast revenue at the lower end of its forecast range"

Gone Flying 09-13-2021 08:52 AM


Originally Posted by BeatNavy (Post 3294448)
5 days ago DL just said their Q3 earnings would be on the low side of guidance due to a large drop in bookings. Not sure what they guided exactly, but their Q2 numbers were still in the negative territory without payroll support to the tune of almost a $700mil loss. Couple that with rising costs with all the hiring and bringing people back over the last few months…not sure it will be a great earnings report (not just for delta, but for all airlines).

the guidance I saw was Q3 EPS was projected to be somewhere between .66 and -.02

id be shocked if they don’t have a Q3 profit based on what I have been reading.

also I believe the only reason we were not profitable in q2 was due to write downs.

PTAX income was +700m
EBITDA was +900m
gross profit was -100m

BeatNavy 09-13-2021 09:13 AM


Originally Posted by Gone Flying (Post 3294485)
the guidance I saw was Q3 EPS was projected to be somewhere between .66 and -.02

id be shocked if they don’t have a Q3 profit based on what I have been reading.

also I believe the only reason we were not profitable in q2 was due to write downs.

PTAX income was +700m
EBITDA was +900m
gross profit was -100m

What would those numbers be without payroll support? https://apnews.com/article/business-...5be1e35a8caf6f

“$1.5bil from PSP and other one time events” change the numbers you posted above significantly.

Also, I read elsewhere that 2H2021 CapEx will increase by $700m due to the a350s/739s being added to the fleet.

And to be clear I’m not hating on delta here. They are still in the best position imo and maybe still the best run of the legacies (not a fan of Ed, to be clear). But, nobody, including Delta, is out of the woods, and I think Q3 and the first part of Q4 will be rough for everyone. Just as summer exceeded expectations across the industry, the post-summer booking drop off has also exceeded expectations, in the wrong direction.

GogglesPisano 09-13-2021 09:14 AM


Originally Posted by BeatNavy (Post 3294466)
I think Q3 guidance would take that into account, no?

My post was in reference to the OP.


All times are GMT -8. The time now is 12:54 PM.


User Alert System provided by Advanced User Tagging v3.3.0 (Lite) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2022 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
Website Copyright ©2000 - 2017 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands