ULCC captain to Legacy?
#101
The regionals exist because the legacies make money outsourcing that flying and the flying is needed to support the hub and spoke model the legacies largely depend upon. The demise of the regionals will not be a money maker for the legacies, it will cost them. If they could have profited by bringing regional flying in-house the legacy managements would have done so years ago.
Similarly, the legacies aren’t doing joint ventures with foreign airlines (or in Delta’s case, actually holding considerable stock in its JVs) because they don’t think they can make money by doing it. And if their management think they will make more money by letting the foreign pilots rather than their own pilots fly their pax, they’ll try to make that happen.
The allegiance of management is to the stockholders, not to their pilot groups. If they think ‘shrinking to profitability’ is their best option, they’ll do it in a heartbeat.
Similarly, the legacies aren’t doing joint ventures with foreign airlines (or in Delta’s case, actually holding considerable stock in its JVs) because they don’t think they can make money by doing it. And if their management think they will make more money by letting the foreign pilots rather than their own pilots fly their pax, they’ll try to make that happen.
The allegiance of management is to the stockholders, not to their pilot groups. If they think ‘shrinking to profitability’ is their best option, they’ll do it in a heartbeat.
#104
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2012
Posts: 2,064
Respectfully, things have changed a bit at the legacies. They're no longer simply giving up city pairs to ULCCs.
As far as debt levels, do you think the debt levels are much different at ULCCs than legacies? For instance, in their third quarter 10Q, Frontier had $3.676B in liabilities, including $2.053B in lease liabilities. Given the relative size of F9, I'd say they're carrying more debt relative to revenues than their legacy counterparts.
International competition: foreign carriers have been decimated. When Covid restrictions are lifted, the legacies will be printing money because there will be reduced competition from foreign carriers.
Business travel: perhaps it will take a bit for it to return, but I've listened to a LOT of complaints about Zoom and other virtual meetings on CNBC. Business travel may be reduced a little bit but it's not going away.
Finally, take a look at how many ULCC Captains are getting offers from legacies (and now debating on whether or not to jump ship). I haven't seen this level of poaching the ULCCs in the past. The regionals as a source of pilots for the majors is drying up; they're now starting to turn to the ULCCs. If ULCC Captains with offers at legacies decide to stay, that's fine. There are another two or three ULCC FOs that will make the move over to legacies.
As far as debt levels, do you think the debt levels are much different at ULCCs than legacies? For instance, in their third quarter 10Q, Frontier had $3.676B in liabilities, including $2.053B in lease liabilities. Given the relative size of F9, I'd say they're carrying more debt relative to revenues than their legacy counterparts.
International competition: foreign carriers have been decimated. When Covid restrictions are lifted, the legacies will be printing money because there will be reduced competition from foreign carriers.
Business travel: perhaps it will take a bit for it to return, but I've listened to a LOT of complaints about Zoom and other virtual meetings on CNBC. Business travel may be reduced a little bit but it's not going away.
Finally, take a look at how many ULCC Captains are getting offers from legacies (and now debating on whether or not to jump ship). I haven't seen this level of poaching the ULCCs in the past. The regionals as a source of pilots for the majors is drying up; they're now starting to turn to the ULCCs. If ULCC Captains with offers at legacies decide to stay, that's fine. There are another two or three ULCC FOs that will make the move over to legacies.
Last edited by fcoolaiddrinker; 12-23-2021 at 03:57 PM.
#106
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2012
Position: 737 CA
Posts: 508
No dog in the fight, but the fact that you’re going through the trouble to apply and even interview at a Legacy when you have decent seniority at ULCC may be answering your own questions in your true happiness with your QOL and self fulfillment. Whether it’s a wise move or not is up for debate in which no one has a crystal ball to answer for you.
#108
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2012
Posts: 2,064
Me neither but we do have several pilots that didn’t go back to non probation 3/4 year pay at UAL and Several American pilots that went back were looking to come back less than 1 year ago. There was a discussion on if we should hire them back.
Last edited by fcoolaiddrinker; 12-23-2021 at 05:07 PM.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post