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High Oil Price and Airline Hiring

Old 03-03-2022, 02:03 AM
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For those who've been through high oil prices, do you think the airlines will pause or slow down hiring...

Ryanair boss says, "The next 12 months will be “very difficult” for most airlines"

​​​​​​https://skift.com/2022/03/02/ryanair...war-escalates/
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Old 03-03-2022, 03:55 AM
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Originally Posted by 135tankerdriver View Post
For those who've been through high oil prices, do you think the airlines will pause or slow down hiring...

Ryanair boss says, "The next 12 months will be “very difficult” for most airlines"

​​​​​​https://skift.com/2022/03/02/ryanair...war-escalates/
The Ryan Air boss is concerned because fuel increases cause the low cost carriers to see a more rapid rise in overall costs. Fuel is a greater part of their budget than traditional airlines. I think the US airlines will hire as planned knowing this is short term.
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Old 03-03-2022, 06:07 AM
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Originally Posted by 135tankerdriver View Post
For those who've been through high oil prices, do you think the airlines will pause or slow down hiring...

Ryanair boss says, "The next 12 months will be “very difficult” for most airlines"

​​​​​​https://skift.com/2022/03/02/ryanair...war-escalates/
if oil stay high, yeah it will at least slow down hiring. Whether hiring stops or not prob depends on the overall economy and how it’s affected by high oil. But even if the economy slows, I’m guessing the airlines will carry a few extra pilots to avoid getting themselves in the situation they’re currently in - short of pilots.
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Old 03-03-2022, 06:17 AM
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Most US airlines are playing catch-up, so no, not for a while
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Old 03-03-2022, 06:33 AM
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Originally Posted by sailingfun View Post
The Ryan Air boss is concerned because fuel increases cause the low cost carriers to see a more rapid rise in overall costs. Fuel is a greater part of their budget than traditional airlines. I think the US airlines will hire as planned knowing this is short term.
Anyone who doesn’t think higher fuel costs are going to hit the US legacies harder than the US ULCCs is whistling past the graveyard. F9 is the most fuel efficient fleet in the industry right now, and NK is next. Not only that, they derive half their revenue from baggage charges and other fees that are fairly independent of fuel prices. EVERYBODY’S fuel costs will go up some, but the ULCCs will go up less.

A greater cause for concern is what this will do to the economy as a whole. If high fuel costs, inflation, and increased interest rates push the country into a recession or stagflation situation, we could be seeing furloughs come back.

Much of the legacy hiring spree is spurred by finding replacements for the early retirement many airlines gave to their 60 and over people early in the pandemic. They have tried in the last year to hire and train three years worth of applicants and wound up overloading their training departments and cannibalizing their own regional feed pilots to do it. A slowdown in flying would give their flagging training departments a chance to catch up while the regionals could give a new group of FOs a time to at least become upgrade eligible before their left seaters are hired away completely.
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Old 03-03-2022, 06:47 AM
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Hire till you have to furlough…motto of the industry
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Old 03-03-2022, 08:17 AM
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Oil prices headed to the moon, inflation that was never "transitory", oh and don't forget business travel is basically non-existent still. Won't get into why all this is, but it could have all been avoided. Either way, this is what you get when you have a government of clowns.

Oil will most likely go much higher as Russia is virtue signaled out of U.S./western markets (hope you all spilled out your vodka that you already paid for, that'll show 'em) who have been going green by simply buying oil and gas from Russia, and other tyrannical countries, instead of producing it at home or in friendly countries. This will cause prices to go up for all Americans. Outside of the elite class, most people are negatively affected by inflation that makes it harder (or impossible) to afford food and transportation.

Airplane trips are a luxury item that don't get purchased when all of someone's income goes to things needed for basic survival like food and to pay for gas to get to work. That big summer vacation to a national park will become a trip to the beach or the lake for many families. This combined with business and international travel that's still nowhere close to a recovery is not going to be good for any airline. Q2 and Q3 losses will be big, and sometime around October or November decisions will be made on how to proceed. Could be possible, as someone mentioned, that it gives a chance to catch up with the "shortage" and hiring continues at a slower pace. Could also be that hiring stops while and planes start getting parked again. It's going to take a few years to sort this circus out.
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Old 03-03-2022, 08:37 AM
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Let’s not forget, most of the US carriers have not financially recovered and are still operating in the red. I’m only aware of two companies that are operating in the black, both are ULCC’s.

Yes, I believe this is something to be concerned with. There are only so many black swan events any one particular airline can be expected to survive in this short period of time. We all know the airline mantra is “hire until you fire!” I’d be a little nervous if I was sitting at the bottom of a seniority list right now.
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Old 03-03-2022, 08:42 AM
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As oil prices continue to rapidly increase, your chances of furlough as a legacy new hire rapidly increase. The dream can quickly become a nightmare in this industry. Plan your tolerance for risk accordingly.
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Old 03-03-2022, 09:07 AM
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Originally Posted by YerOnGuard View Post
Let’s not forget, most of the US carriers have not financially recovered and are still operating in the red. I’m only aware of two companies that are operating in the black, both are ULCC’s.

Yes, I believe this is something to be concerned with. There are only so many black swan events any one particular airline can be expected to survive in this short period of time. We all know the airline mantra is “hire until you fire!” I’d be a little nervous if I was sitting at the bottom of a seniority list right now.
Who actually made it out of the red?
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