gzsg

How many new jets do Frontier and Spirit have coming?

If they hire 100 a month and 75 leave how can they fly the additional aircraft?

UAL, AA and DAL will not have trouble filling their classes. They just keep lowering their minimums.

Spirit, Frontier, Alaska, JetBlue, etc need to bite the bullet right now and match or exceed legacy contracts. Otherwise they will not only not grow, they will have to shrink. Kirby is playing chess and they are playing checkers.

ULCCs pay the same for fuel, the same for parts, they can pay the same for pilots. Or die a slow death.

Planedrive

I can only speak for Frontier. But we have net’ed 100 pilots in 2022 so far. With 15 pilots per plane we are not dying the slow death you predict. I think we need to net 150 pilots for this year to staff our deliveries. We got a little behind in the spring but we are catching up.

Aero1900

Dramatic click bait

The ULCCs will raise pay in their next contracts which is great for everyone.

Frontier is growing the seniority list, not shrinking. We have completely filled classes of 48 for the last few months in a row and our attrition is less than half of what you said it is.

And to answer your question, Frontier has about 140 airplanes on order right now.

APCHCLIMB

I think this also really depends on where folks want to live.

onedolla

And when do you think that will be? Next week? Next month? A year?

Seems the general consensus is around 2-3 years after which ever merger is decided. Once deliveries start picking up, combined with the big airlines getting even better at mass training and possibly even lower mins, how does F9 and NK handle 2-3 more years of this? Does “hire our way out” really work when the FO list is just a constant churn? There’s some CEOs that can be parked too, but that doesn’t really help the business at all.

AxlF16

15 pilots per plane or 15 crews?

Excargodog

I think it is very likely that ULCCs will become the replacement for the regionals for maturing crews. Right now the regionals are having trouble retaining CAs and senior FOs while B6, F9, NK, and AS are having trouble retaining FOs and junior CAs. Unless the upcoming recession cuts very deep, I think most regionals are toast because they’ll lose too many CAs and near- upgrade eligible FOs to have enough CAs to fill their schedules. Similarly, majors not part of the Big Four (and to some extent even WN) are bleeding their junior people to the Big Three, UPS, and FedEx.

it is likely most regionals won’t be able to survive, freeing up their junior FOs to go to the second tier even while their CAs go to the Big Three. Once there those former regional FOs will get a new type, gain hours in a larger aircraft, and mostly just move on. Those who stay long enough to make CA may stay - especially the older ones - and probably enough of them to keep the company going.

TallFlyer

I think the Big 3 first have to figure out exactly how they want to maintain regional feed first. If they continue business as usual, then I think you're exactly right, which is why some ULCCs have already established relationships with University Aviation programs that pump out 1,000 hour R-ATP students. To your other point, plenty of ULCC pilots (to include a 10 year CA) in my Legacy new hire class.

If they figure something else out, be that expanding downwards into 100 ish seat AC (220, etc), or staple, or whatever, then the Legacies will be the place to go for those same students, plus whatever ULCC pilots make the switch.

It's a crazy world out there.

Excargodog

I don’t see how a staple is possible:
1. There are pilots in the regionals that the legacies simply don’t want. They have issues that - to the legacy at least - are show stoppers. There are others that are doubtful at best - got their CRJ 200 type 20 years ago and have had no serious training event since that time.
2. Many of the senior people - especially some of the above - WILL invoke McCaskill Bond. The senior pilots at each of the legacy - H€||, almost ALL the pilots at most legacies - will not take the chance that they are going to lose seniority in an SLI to someone that hasn’t been able to make the jump in the last 20 years.
3. The legacies have no intention of adding four years of seniority to their new hires, which is the effect a staple would have. Not when they can hire from other legacies’ regionals, from the ULCCs and second tier majors, and from the military.
4. A lot of regional flying is only economically feasible if it can be done at current regional pay scales.

Aero1900

The peak of retirements at the majors is only a few years away and then the retirement numbers steadily decline. (There are substantial retirements for another 10 years, no doubt, but we aren't far from the peak)

If the ULCCs can survive the next few years (which they definitely can) then they are here to stay.

Frontier alone has hiring agreements with ERAU, Purdue, UND, ATP and KeyLime Air. Those, along with all the normal hiring, will keep the airline staffed