at6d

I know what Uncle Joe looks like falling off a bike. I don’t think we need to go much further to find the answer. Shields up!

Andy

I wouldn't say it feels similar. There are plenty of parallels to draw on, but there are enough differences that the airline industry won't be hammered as hard.
9/11 destroyed air travel and then that was quickly followed by SARS. Today, there is much larger demand for air travel so I don't see as big a negative impact on airlines.

Will the overall economy have a hard landing? I think so; there aren't many levers that central banks can pull anymore to ease the economy down gently. I expect it to be bad and the markets are likely to slide quite a bit more because we're not even close to getting inflation under control yet.

As an airline pilot, you should plan to be furloughed at any moment, no matter how good the economy is. Spend less than you make. Don't dump all of your savings into clearly dumb investments (I'm looking at all of the crypto kooks out there that think crypto's the future - it isn't and the biggest reason why crypto rose all of those years is due to world central banks doing QE).

Earthboundmsfit

Ain’t nothing close to being parallel from 20+ years ago. First off, we have massive retirements that are guaranteed that we didn’t have then, and second, we didn’t have consolidation among the legacies that we have now.

In terms of a recession, I just don’t see it being severe, solely because we have a massive worker SHORTAGE now.

In terms of furloughs, I still say very unlikely not only because of the massive retirements, but also the airlines got caught w their pants down when they wanted to slash w COVID and didn’t anticipate how fast we’d recover and I think they’d be fun shy about that especially with the recency of that combined w ongoing bad press about pilot shortage

CincoDeMayo

Yup. In the end, the pent up travel demand post covid will help offset any inflationary or recession dampening, IMO. People want to travel, airfare is very high right now (relatively speaking) and people are still lining up. They want to travel, inflation and cost be damned

JulesWinfield

That’s essentially every asset. That’s why the entire stock market pumped when the Fed turned the money printer setting to infinity after covid.

Andy

Mostly true, but crypto had extreme outsized gains compared to other asset classes with QE. Now that we're into QT, it's deflating and we're finding that a lot of those crypto exchanges were built on sand. Crypto is looking more Ponzi than asset class lately ... to paraphrase Iron Mike, every crypto millionaire has a withdrawal plan until they're not able to cash out their wallet.
As for asset classes that didn't see a lot of inflation during the QE decade, commodities, gold and silver didn't experience much in terms of gains during that timeframe.
Now, most of that QE is going to have to be unwound in order to get the inflation genie back in the bottle.

fadec

Crypto had outsized gains because it's a new growth sector and still in an adoption phase. It's also scammy as fk with newcomers selling snake oil to newercomers. There is only one true crypto and it is called Bitcoin. It did not see outsized gains because it is further along in adoption. Bitcoin still has another 100x to go but the 10000x gains came before people even knew how to laugh at it, before there was even such a thing as "crypto", back when there was only Bitcoin and the Lord walked with it in the cool of the day. It's beta value is only about 3 and lots of tech stocks are higher than that.

John Carr

At Putin can get credit for helping to eradicate COVID.

ShyGuy

I like how it’s Putin’s fault, never mind that WE put the sanctions on him and WE stopped buying his oil. Along with Europe. Yeah, I don’t like that he invaded Ukraine and started a war, but these pains are self-inflicted because we put it on ourselves as a way to punish Russia. So far, none of it seems to have done anything except to prolong what is pretty much inevitable for Ukraine.

mkitrn

McCarthy has got to be rolling over in his grave