WhyIFly

There are quite a few pilots that are looking at staying at their current regional for the next few years because of the increased pay. There are also quite a few regional pilots making lateral transfers right now to take advantage of the $100k sign on bonuses, which come with a 24 month commitment.

Pilots are looking at the retirements and thinking that they will be ok waiting. But they are wrong.

By doing this, what are they giving up? Will it hurt their longterm career by not making the jump to a legacy carrier now?

Lets look at the numbers.

In 2022, the legacy and big majors (career destinations) will have hired:

American - 2000 pilots
Delta - 2200 pilots
Southwest - 900 pilots
United - 2300 pilots


Now, for the important part, look at how many pilots are now on the seniority list at each of these airlines that are currently 40 years old and younger. This number represents the number of pilots on the list that have 25 years left in their career. The majority of the pilots getting hired at these carriers right now are young. Hundreds of them in their 20's. This means that they will be in front of you on the seniority list for the next 35-40 years!

The important number to look at right now is how many young pilots are being hired! This is the only number that matters. How many will be in front of you for the rest of your career! This will dictate when you can upgrade and when you can hold a line.

There is no doubt that the pilot hiring will slow down again in the next few years, and that the regionals will go back to their garbage pay and work rules. Quite a few will be gone by that point, and the ones that remain will be the places that we have grown to hate over the last several decades. At that point, where will those that stayed for the temporary pay be?

At a point in the not too distant future, all of the legacy airlines will have hired their last Captain for the next 10 years. Not too long after, they will have hired their last Captain for the next 15 years. And you guessed it, not too long after that, they will have hired their last Captain for 20 years. On what side of this hiring do you want to be on?

Every year the you don't upgrade at a legacy carrier means a loss of about $100k. This gets even worse when you start looking at wide body pay and upgrades.


Don't be the guy that stayed at his regional for 24 months to get an extra $350k, just to lose out on $2mil over then next 15 years.
Don't be the guy that is stuck on reserve at the bottom of the Captain list on reserve for 5 years because you choose to stay at your regional for an extra year.

It isn't worth it. They wouldn't pay the money if it wasn't bad for you. They are just trying to get pilots to give up 2 years of seniority, which will cost you 5x or 10x the current amount over the course of your career.

Excargodog

It isn’t just that. For good or bad, most of the majors are simply too big to fail. Oh, they may go bankrupt (AA came out of bankruptcy less than 10 years ago) and that may force bankruptcy payscales for a contract, but they aren’t going away. A seniority number there will have meaning. You don’t have that guarantee when you are dependent upon someone else to sell your tickets for you. The history of civil aviation in America is replete with regionals that have gone under.

Sure, I understand, if you are 63 and at the top of the scale at your regional starting at the bottom all over again will never pay off. Take advantage of the CA shortage and the bonuses and incentive pay and ride that horse until it dies beneath you. Stay where your family and your established life is and milk that seniority for all the quality of life and pay it can give you. But if you are 55 or under, it’s likely a mistake.

speedbird85

What are everyone’s thoughts on the hiring wave? How long will the demand last?

Brickfire

Without another black swan (like deregulation, 9/11, age 65, covid, tactical nuclear war in Europe) and even modest growth assumptions…. Hiring industry wide will continue to be strong over the next 10 years. Retirements are too high to be otherwise.

How long til a 202X new hire can hold xyz is another question and a significant one

Excargodog

Legacy retirements will help to buffer any downturn. This is for just AA:



But EVERYONE is planning huge growth too. How much of that planning is realistic is difficult to say. A lot depends on the future economy and they call the study of economics ‘the dismal science’ for a reason.

And it could all change with the next new virus or one missile going off course. Your guess is probably as good as the next guys.

Swapapotamoose

I’m top 20% at Breeze, making the most I’ve ever made and home every night. Most seem to think that breeze is a huge gamble, but I’ll never have this kind of seniority again in my career. When I see the numbers though, it does make me question my decision to give it “another year”.

Thedude86

I’m an August flow from AA. I was a regular line pilot at PSA. Not an LCA. Not in the training department. Not a chief pilot. Nothing special. Just a line captain.

In June, I made 47k. That’s with 37 of my hours at the old pay rates. In July I had vacation… Added one trip to my schedule and still had 21 days off. I made 36k. Could have easily made another 15k and had 15 days off, but I had future in laws visiting from overseas for the month. Had I been an LCA, I would have made 66,000 in June. Now I’m making 7,500 a month at AA.

The way PSA’s bidding and premium pay works… even the most junior line holder could do the same thing if they understand premium and the contract. The only thing my seniority gave me was maybe an extra day off per month on my initial bids.

Will I ever make that at mainline? Maybe in 20 years as an LCA on the 777. I know it’s temporary but let’s say the good times last only 5 years. Conservatively on the low end… even with an adjusted 30% contractual gain at AA… I would easily make over 1.5 to 2 million MORE at PSA after only 5 years without trying. While having 17-19 days off every month. How long will it take me to earn that back at AA? If you invested your money wisely, even without a 16% DC, I might not ever break even. I have 29 years left. I’m starting to think I made the wrong decision.

TwoDaysBehind

If the money is there to pay >$40k for 76 seats, the money should be there to pay that for 190 seats.

DryClutch

Those are interesting numbers, I hadn't ever crunched the numbers on the new regional pay scales and what are possible earnings on a given month. Problem is what happens when your regional is no longer around in 6 years? That's a seriously real scenario.
The way I look at it, anything and everything associated with a regional can be temporary. New pay rates, the place even being around long term, etc. It's cool in the short term no doubt with the new pay rates, but i'd say the name of the game for guys on the fence at their regional wondering the same thing, is to get in and out as fast as possible imho. I used to work at a place that was kinda "stable" with a lot of lifers, now it's not even an airline anymore. So fast. Oh I forgot to add, you made a good choice to flow over!

TyWebb

Making that with 17-19 days off per month? You all must have some insane work rules/premium going on. I just don't see how the new TA would help the situation the AA wholly owns are going through if everyone is doing the same? Just picking up premium and then dropping regular days. Good on you all, I'm not hating here just don't see how the company is letting you all drop trips in your current state. I realize in July you said you had 21 days off after adding a trip... blows my mind how that even works without having 3 weeks vacation. What did you do pick up a 4 day paying 300% and combo it right next to the regular 3-4 day you had?