Leave AA for United
 

I can't believe I'm making one of these threads.

34 years old. 13 months at AA, live in NE Ohio, fly the C-17 close by, have 8 years left to 20 for the military retirement.

Bidding 20% NYC FO on narrow body, very easy commute, but still a commute, decent schedule for a year on property, could be a line holding 777 FO in another year in NYC, have thought about bidding 737 captain when I wouldn't be the very bottom. We all know AA's pros and shortcomings so I'll save the typing. Was planning on moving to a senior AA base and commuting the military gig eventually.

Have the opportunity to jump to United where I can drive to work at CLE or commute to ORD for a better run airline with more wide bodies and a desire to not be the worlds largest regional.

Obviously contract 2023 is the big unknown for both places. Frankly I am keeping my FedEx app updated, but that's a pipe dream at best.

Thoughts?

Thanks in advance.

No

CLE has no growth ahead of it

You can to ord on American

United has hired nearly 3000 post-covid

Go to UPS. You can move to Cincinnati to sit reserve at home (barely) and still have only a 45 minute drive to Wright-Pat. Unless your family wants out of Ohio, then disregard all of the above.

Believe it or not i have 975 TPIC, I came from another air frame prior to the C-17, so I'm a new C-17 Copilot, so UPS is off the table by 25 hours. I must say the UPS guys were fantastic at RTAG and I want to work there more than anywhere else, but can't get past that hard limit. Otherwise I'd be doing exactly this as a majority of my friends live in Cinci already.

Family is a concern in the form of parents, but aging midwest parents are gonna do what aging midwest parents do and are moving to Florida.

Thanks though.

Dude - go rent a meridian for 25 hours

Also. - Cleveland is a dead end. Not growing. You can commute to ORD with AA.

United has hired nearly 3000 since covid. Ride the wave at AA

LOL might be worth it.

AA just has so many problems and only 115 widebodies. If its not CLT, DFW or MIA they don't care about it. AA at ORD is tiny/senior.

Trying to convince myself I'm not on the wrong wave.

CLE has 110 first officers on the 737. Movement is stagnant for the most part. They grew the base about 20 positions in the past two years or so.

Sitting reserve within 2.5 hours is pretty cake, you’ll get 75 hours of pay and fly infrequently. Lines go somewhat junior if you’re about 90 percent in base you can hold a line 50 percent of the time.

Trading is difficult with the size of the base.

Hope that helps.

Seems like you caught the AA wave pretty well and you missed the United wave by a mile. Stay put.

missed the United wave? United plans to hire 8000 pilots over the next 5 years. He’ll
be fine either way….but I’d stay put at AA.

United is hiring not just to replace retirements, but to fulfill the United Next plan which predicates on replacing regional lift with NB aircraft. Will they still go this route if the regional lift survives the pilot shortage? According to the FAA the number of new ATP certificates issued in 2022 is over 8,100! The 2021-2022 post covid period saw big hiring numbers thanks covid early retirements. If the 8,100 plus new ATP certificates continues year over year, the regionals will restock on pilots as mainline hiring slows down. Mainline hiring will slow down as they have already hired thousands to cover the sudden covid early retirements. All the hiring at this point is for future growth. United might find itself over supplied with pilots in the next couple years as it realizes that it doesn't need to grow to replace the regional lift anymore.

Granted, United's peak retirement numbers are still yet to come but still won't need to hire over 800 pilots annually to cover that.

At AA, theyre dont have any growth plans other than adding more 787's, theyre just covering huge retirement numbers. My bet is they order more widebodies in the future to replace all of the 76's and 330's they retired that will put them around 200 widebodies in the next 10 years. Thats a lot of lost profit opportunity that i dont think any airline BOD's will tolerate long term, but they have that delicate balance sheet to consider.

Throw a recession into the mix and United might be furloughing by 2024.