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Originally Posted by chuck h
(Post 259924)
The real question is if or when it happens will retirements and age 65 hold off long enough to keep anyone from being furloughed?
> Most legacies are in debt - even on older equipment. It is much harder to park an airplane when you have to make payments on it. Parking an encumbered jet almost requires using the bankruptcy tool. A merger amongst healthy carriers is unlikely since it would be hard to reduce capacity. With the same number of airplanes, the airlines need the same number of pilots. > Delta's list is very young with few pilots over the age of 50. Age 65 isn't a factor at Delta for a decade. Many of the legacies have pilots who are older and who will retire regardless of the age 65 change. It could balance out. Unlike the situation at FedEx where there is a Flight Engineer seat to hang on to while waiting for the age 65 change to allow a bid back to the left seat. At most majors with 2 seat jets you can't come back after age 60. > Maintaining physical fitness is an issue for all of us, if we want to work past 60. Most of us are going to be more effected by our own high fat / sugar diets than the mandatory retirement age based on pilot demographic studies and the degenerative conditions that are prevalent amongst those of us who make a living on the road. The pilots nearing age 60 now were less informed than our generation. Anyone remember when cigarettes and wiskey were practically considered health foods? > The restructuring of employee benefits will make flying past 60 less important since retirement does not hinge on final average earning any more. > The Boeing 787 & the A350. If airlines use it to increase frequency and replace larger jets the net result will be an increase in the number of pilots required to fly it. My guess is that the bloodbath would be at the regional level as carriers might use a merger to reduce overlap in the branded 50 seat market. If those airplanes get parked it is much less of an issue since they usually are not on the mainline carriers' balance sheets. |
Originally Posted by fbn0223
(Post 259932)
I believe UAL and Jetblue A320's are powered by IAE 2500 engines. NWA A320/319s are powered by the CFM56, which is the addtional engine type that was referenced in the article.
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MD90's - mo betta' power - yummy. Lets get that rumor going again.
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Originally Posted by greedyairlineexec
(Post 259915)
My bet is the merger mania will start with LCC's first. Big LCC buying smaller ones and Legacy buying smaller LCC's. Once those mergers are completed and skybus and virgin are put out of business the "new" legacy's will merge among themselves.
whether it will be SWA buying Airtran, AA Alaska, DAL or UAL buying JB, NWA buying Frontier or Spirit or any combination in between is anyone guess. the "legacy" carriers will not merger until the bigger LCC's have been absorbed and use to take out the new entrants. they will ink deals like the one between KLM-Airfrance with DAL and NWA, which is more than code share and has antitrust immunity but stops short of merging. Once they can "prove" to the government that the removal of the LCC's and the new alliances are not bad for the american public ( more expensive tickets) then they will be allow to merge. My time line is 12months for setting up those alliances with antitrust immunity,18 months for the buyout of LCC's, 48 months for the legacy mergers, 72 months for us all to get really fat contracts. Puppet, dancing on a string.... |
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