UAL...need one be concerned?
 

Besides the myriad of labor issues UAL is going through, which we all know extensively about...is there GREAT cause for concern for UAL new hires as far as stability? (The oxymoron between stable and legacy carrier is recognized)

-We know the UAL management has made overtures towards merger however it seems more likely DAL and NWA will wed if it even gets approved at all. I don't seen the government approving a merger of the mega carrier DAL/UAL...is this right?
-Fuel prices are hammering the airlines but fares are rising and projected demand is steadily growing. UAL posted a Q4 loss but otherwise other factors in their operations show improvement.
-What's concerning is UAL's ability to shrink with aircraft coming out of lease and a recession forecasted. Some have said the workload is so high on UAL crews that even if they shrink capacity the combination of retirements and other factors should keep the new hires out of the unemployment office. I am not certain about this...I am asking for the sage wisdom of the APC intelligencia (is that another oxymoron?!)

UAL is as stable as the others. About 4 billion in unsecured cash. PRASM higher than others and outpacing the analyst predictions for the 4th Q. Profit for the entire FY 07.

The flying is good. The people you will work with are for the most part good people (we do have our 10%). Finally, if you are not currently flying for a major I highly endorse working here. There are a few bones left.

L

Also I might add some enhancements for the LCO around the corner I am hearing (soon) If a merger happens expect (some more bones) for labor to go along and then a new contract (some more bones)

In my experience the only "bone" UAL is going to give you is the one you don't want!

United has over $4 BILLION dollars of cash on hand. Yesterday United announced its highest pre-tax profit since 1999. They made over $600 million dollars this year. Oh, and what happened in 2000... United negotiated the largest contract in the history of ALPA. The money is there...

They are working under a concessionary contract right now, but that will all change when contract negotiations open up in about one year. Take a look at their contract 2000. I would expect nothing less for their next contract. Just look at the leadership APA is providing. They are asking for their 2000 level pay plus inflation over the past 7 years (over 30% raises). Things will get better at United.

As for mergers, yes United is looking to merge. My prediction... they will have merged by the end of 2008. But this is a good thing. With fewer airlines, there is less fierce competition, and thus airlines have an easier ability to raise fares, make more money, and that is good for labor.

So do you guys think UAL will furlough with a merger? Also is there any link to UAL 2000 contract? Thanks.

1. YES, ABSOLUTELY 2. Not sure about the link. Hope this helps..

I disagree due to the current shortage of pilots at UAL if the merger happens . I think there will be a slight increase in flying is DAL and UAL merge. If CAL and UAL merge a very good chance the same or status quo.

P.S. Its official at UAL, LCO goes to mainline rules and you get guarantee for month reguardless of wx or cncls.

So do you guys think UAL will furlough with a merger? Also is there any link to UAL 2000 contract? Thanks.>>>>>>>>>>>>



Ahhhh. The good ol' days........

747-4 747 777 DC10F DC10 767 320 727 737-3 737

1yr 312.53 292.44 270.35 263.05 239.21 221.55 211.56 199.36 188.28 186.46
2yr 312.53 292.44 271.89 265.22 241.18 223.24 213.31 201.17 189.90 188.08
3yr 312.53 292.44 273.30 267.19 242.98 225.01 215.05 202.90 191.58 189.76
4yr 312.53 292.44 274.80 269.30 244.90 226.80 216.83 204.64 193.39 191.58
5yr 312.53 292.44 276.36 271.49 246.89 228.59 218.63 206.47 195.20 193.40
6yr 312.53 292.44 277.77 273.46 248.68 230.29 220.32 208.14 196.93 195.13
7yr 313.40 293.22 279.31 275.34 250.39 231.82 221.92 209.85 198.68 196.89
8yr 314.27 294.05 281.17 277.64 252.49 233.77 223.79 211.60 200.44 198.64
9yr 315.03 294.79 282.71 279.53 254.20 235.31 225.36 213.21 201.94 200.15
10yr 315.98 295.67 285.02 282.42 256.83 237.74 227.77 215.61 204.45 202.66
11yr 316.74 296.38 287.19 285.22 259.38 240.30 230.20 218.01 206.81 205.02
12yr 318.99 297.20 289.78 288.05 261.95 242.55 232.59 220.39 209.28 207.49


1yr 49.77 49.77 49.77 49.77 49.77 49.77 49.77 49.77 49.77 49.77
2yr 130.33 121.95 113.38 110.60 100.58 93.09 88.95 83.89 79.19 78.43
3yr 187.52 175.47 163.98 160.31 145.79 135.01 129.03 121.74 114.95 113.86
4yr 197.21 184.53 173.40 169.93 154.53 143.11 136.82 129.13 122.03 120.89
5yr 200.18 187.31 177.01 173.89 158.13 146.41 140.03 132.24 125.03 123.87
6yr 203.77 190.67 181.10 178.30 162.14 150.15 143.65 135.71 128.40 127.23
7yr 207.94 194.55 185.32 182.69 166.14 153.81 147.25 139.24 131.82 130.63
8yr 212.13 198.48 189.79 187.40 170.42 157.79 151.06 142.83 135.29 134.08
9yr 213.27 199.57 191.40 189.24 172.10 159.30 125.57 144.34 136.72 135.50
10yr 214.71 200.91 193.67 191.90 174.52 161.54 154.77 146.51 138.92 137.71
11yr 216.01 202.13 195.87 194.52 176.90 163.89 157.00 148.68 141.04 139.82
12yr 217.87 202.99 197.92 196.74 178.91 165.66 158.86 150.52 142.94 141.71

Any MEC release or just hearsay? Is that all rules ie 12 days off on res?

Thanks jsled for the numbers.

LCO = ?????

TA just released tonight from the MEC. "aligns all LCO pay and duty credit ratios with mainline pay and duty ratios, and accounts for full month line protection in all fleets." As far as rsv days off, that has been 12 for some time now on the LCO.

Low Cost Operation. Refers to the 737 and A320 at United Airlines. Different work rules than the big fleets.

Very Cool:)

Thank you Lambourne...

Jsled...is that what UAL used to pay? Man what a kick in the shorts!

Ok just read th MEC press release Jsled mentioned. First what is a TA? The duty and pay credit ratio...is that similar to a duty rig such as 1 hour for 3.75 on duty or 1 for 4? And what is the mainline guarantee now applicable to the LCO? You all must get bored educating simpleton's like me but this all new...

I think many on this thread are involved in wishful thinking. Mergers come about for several reasons and none of which are good for new or recent hires.
Merger brings with it route overlap and this means eliminating flying and that means less pilots need to fly what previously required more aircraft.
Consolidation is the word used and this means less seats available hence higher airfares.This all works quite well in theory but then the LCC move in to replace the voids and we end up back where we started. The merger will allow investors to profit and management to profit and this is the basic reality of mergers.
Recently a major fund that had a 5 percent stake in UAL and DAL started the ball rolling on the merger rumor mill and made about 15 million in one days trading. That's the reality of mergers. When and if merger occurs be prepared for furloughs, major pilot infighting over seniority list mergers, differences in contracts, pensions and non pensions and the list is endless. It will be years before the dust settles. The pilot groups will be fractured and not get along for years.
The long and short of it is employees don't win in a merger. If you think it can't happen you need to apply Murphy's Law because it will.
As a example look at the most recent information on the US Air and America West merger. Over three years and still not resolved.
I wish you all the best and hope things can change but history has proven otherwise.

or look at AA/ TWA

TA= Tentative Agreement

The Rigs are 1 for 4. Not great by anyones standards but it will help the LCO contract to be at parity for that portion of the terms. The LCO (320 and 737 fleets) still have a higher max cap for the month. The lines can be built to 95 hours (97 with pilot concurrence) and the min days off for both the LCO and mainline contracts is 12. The exception for the LCO is that during 3 designated flex months that the company designates (think June, July and August are the ones they always choose) the min days off can be reduced to 10.

Other than that there are not a tremendous amount of difference between the LCO and Mainline terms.

Hope that helps.

L

I feel reasonable sure that if a merger occurs, TED will be ousTED.

Thanks for an accurate post.

Those were the 2002 rates, which were the highest attained before the paycuts on 1/1/03. Had they made it to 5/1/04 without a paycut those rates would have been (for 12th year pay, because I'm too lazy to post the rest):

Captain

B744 = $355.82
B742 = $326.45
B777 = $316.45
DC-10 = $286.06
DC-10F = $314.56
B767/757 = $264.87
A320 = $253.99
B727 = $240.67
B733 = $228.54
B732 = $226.58

First Officer

B744 = $243.03
B742 = $222.96
B777 = $216.13
DC-10 = $195.38
DC-10F = $214.84
B765/757 = $180.91
A320 = $173.48
B727 = $164.38
B733 = $156.09
B732 = $154.75

International override pay was $8/hr, $6/hr and $4/hr for CA/FO/FE

Per diem on 4/1/04 would have been $2.40 domestic, $2.90 international.

Sick pay of 6hrs per month

14 days off/month for flying the Shuttle by United.

Vacation at 14 days/year through yr. 4, 21 days/yr through yr. 8, 30 days/yr. from 12-18years of service, 37 days for yrs 20-25, 44 days per year after 26 years of service.

Night differential was 15/10/5 per hour for CA/FO/FE.

I wish this industry would get back to something close to what we were promised back in year 2000. :rolleyes:

Good luck to all of us in the coming years.

GP

Exactly! People believe the pilots at Southwest, FedEx, and UPS are making a killing, when in fact they are still much much less than United had in 2000.

The good news for pilots negotiating...the precident has already been set. You just have to negotiate. Don't settle for less than you had years ago!!

unbelievable, the pay compared to now....

Simply Folly
 

[quote=iahflyr;305254]
They are working under a concessionary contract right now, but that will all change when contract negotiations open up in about one year. Take a look at their contract 2000. I would expect nothing less for their next contract. Just look at the leadership APA is providing. They are asking for their 2000 level pay plus inflation over the past 7 years (over 30% raises). Things will get better at United.

Just my two cents....but anyone who thinks that Glen Tilton or any other CEO in this industry is going to buy into a carbon copy of United's Contract 2000 in this day and time is delusional at best. Will the pendulum swing back towards a better contract...absolutely. Will you see the equivalent of $ 225,000/yr for a B-727 Captain working 15-17 days a month ? Dream on. Ye gads...I'd go back for that.

G'Day mates !!

[quote=Phantom Flyer;308410]Phantom Flyer,

Whats wrong with pilots who want to better there lot. It's distractors like you who make me sick. Always telling others to bring the bar lower. You know if a bunch pf pilots wanted to fight for a million dollars a year. I would cheer them on and hope they get it. Your type puts obstacles in there way and hopes they fail. Your sad.

I think what Phantom Flyer was trying to say is that a responsible CEO will not and should not subject the company, stockholders and other employees with a contract that the company can not pay. That is not repsonsible. I think Phantom Flyer, would love to see the rates that were pre 9/11 as it helps all of us on our contracts. However, the goal really should be to have contracts the restore the profession and give raises to keep up with cost of living. I agree with you should ask for the moon during contract talks, but you have to be ready to settle for less. Only that pilot group knows what they should accept. Better to get paid a good buck for a full career than a million dollars for a day, don't kill the goose that lays the golden egg.

We can argue what pilots should be paid all day, and I agree, all pax pilots especially deserve to get back what they lost, but you do have to remember these companies are here to make a profit first and foremost.

Do the CEO's, CFO's, etc... make less then they did back in 2000?:confused:

Breckster, you are on the right track. A responsible CEO would keep pay in check. Unfortunately, being a leader isn't a prerequisite for being a CEO these days as you would expect one to lead by example- an idea lost on these CEOs. Wonder why the pilots are asking for the moon.

[quote=Beaver Hunter;308425]Beaver Hunter:

If you had read the original posting by "iahflyr", you would have seen his reference to how things are going to "swing back" and conditions and compensation improve. The United Airlines Contract 2000 was specifically referenced and an inference made that was the acceptable baseline. My reply was simply to state, as OKLATEX did so tactfully, that a CEO in today's environment could not get Board approval, stockholder approval or probably lenders approval to sign a similiar contract. It simply will not fly and there isn't any airline out there that could afford it today. United could not afford Contract 2000 at the time of signing although I give Captain Rick Dubinsky all the credit in the world for forcing it on the company and I'm indebted to him for the 2 great years we had.

Lower the bar ? Pleeeze. Whenever you have spent 20+ years fighting with your company for wage increases, fought for better hotels, better trip rigs, duty rigs and per diem and whenever you've walked a picket line while scabs crossed in front of you, then come talk to me. Oh yes, if you would like to spend an additional nine years working for the line pilots through your MEC and 6 years fighting the Washington Beltine political establishment as a member of an ALPA national committee to improve the lot of the last member on your seniority list, then come talk to me.

Lastly, try using spell check on your next post. Your note reads like an elementary school student wrote it with the misspelled words and incorrect grammar.

Hope your day gets better and for the "professional" pilots out there, please excuse the rant. My apologies.

Best of luck to all....I really do hope the industry recovers to pre 9/11 level of flight operations and compensation.

G'Day

P-Flyer

Many thanks for your wisdom

I dunno...300K a year seems to be pretty good to me.

Phantom Flyer,


I find it strange that you wrote "Y'all be careful out there" on another post then criticized Beaver hunter's grammar.

What are you trying to prove?

AL

Back to the original question. In short, YES. As for stable and any carrier (legacy or otherwise) is an oxymoron. It's not just legacies.

As far as a merger combination with UAL, it's looking like CAL is the most likely. Will some overlap be eliminated? Yes. Does it worry me? Yes; I'm close to the bottom of the seniority list; hired in 2000. I could easily end up back on the streets for another 5 years and am planning for it. Changing retirement to 65 does not help.

On the flipside, UAL is undermanned so that they can reduce pilot hours with reductions in block hours. Also, there's not much overlap with CAL so that should limit block hour reductions. Last, a decent chunk of the service reductions can occur in the express partners; they could get hit a lot worse than mainline.

But we're going into a recession, so that's not good for airlines. And this isn't going to be a mellow recession.

I wouldn't turn down UAL because of the possibility of being furloughed; I'd just make sure that I had several backup plans. And make sure that they're not all aviation related. Once you've got your line number with UAL, they'll train you back to standards upon return from furlough, so it's not like you have to stay current. Look at a possible furlough as an opportunity to do things that you've always wanted to do.

Flying airplanes is a great job when things go your way. Even when they're not, it's an OK job. But just like planning for any emergency, make alternate plans should you end up getting furloughed. I was lucky; I had several plans ahead of my sudden furlough - I was out of a job less than 6 months after 911. Fortunately, I was drawing a military paycheck starting the day prior to my furlough.

Good luck to ya.

Once again...good advice, Andy. Thank you. This may sound corny and I'll take a ribbing for sure but UAL is where I always wanted to be and I'm proud to be heading there despite all the issues in our industry. It's hard not to get the jitters when you see the news and as much as we try and put on a brave face it's even harder to ignore the speculation when what you have worked for so long is just over the horizon...

Most of the folks who paid their dues through all the hard times made it back and if they can do it, so can we.

[quote=Phantom Flyer;309158]I appreciate the grammer lesson. One cannot make a point if one is unable to communicate effectively. However, I am not a new guy to this profession. I was once told to be a real airline pilot I had to work for six airlines. Check.
Be in ALPA. Check.
Be Furloughed.Check
Get a divorce. Hope that one I can pass on
Go on Strike. Ready to walk the line.
I have been a Member of ALPA for over 15 years. I have served as a chairman of a committee and assisted in union organizing activities. So please spare me the rant. I have been there and done that.
I would suggest that you funnel your energies into assisting your pilot group in raising the bar. Remember CEOs accross the globe seem to have no problems getting more $$$, no matter how poor their performance might be. As pilots we skillfully operate million dollar machines which carry billions of dollars of liability. Most of us posses a skill that makes the accomplishment of this task appear easy to the untrained. Lets stop giving our services away. We are worth more.

Beaver Hunter