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-   -   Will jetBlue be here in 5-10 years??? (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/major/2204-will-jetblue-here-5-10-years.html)

edik 01-15-2006 09:55 PM

Will jetBlue be here in 5-10 years???
 
With jetBlue receiving new airplanes monthly and growing rapidly do you guys think jetBlue will be around in the next 5-10years? The airline will get older and the maintenance will increase, the employees will want to get better pay with better retirement. Last quarter the airline made around 8 million (I would not quote me on it).


NOW I WANT TO MAKE THIS CLEAR, I AM NOT WISHING jetBlue TO FAIL.
All I want is some opinions on what people think will happen to the airline in the future.

Edik

hyflyt560 01-15-2006 10:06 PM

I'll state my "Dog in this fight", I'm furloughed from UAL. I think JB will be around. I think, and hope, that the legacy carriers can get their stuff together and be prosperous in the future. If so, then JB might get a run for their money. One thing, of many, JB has going for them is that their CEO is not likely to sell his company (although I know he's sold one before, but I don't know the particulars) or go for a HUGE stock grab like we're seeing the top 400 managers at UAL doing.

ryane946 01-16-2006 07:05 AM

Interesting Question
 
That is a really interesting question you posed. My one word answer would be yes. The thoughts I have (Both supporting and not supporting my answer) are below.

I think JetBlue has an overall good business plan. They are fortunate to have modern and fuel efficient planes, which are critical factors in saving the company money on high fuel costs and maintenance costs. Their workers are paid reasonably (Except EMB-190 pilots), and they are fortunate not to have any pension costs. I think pensions are the largest drain on legacy carriers. This is a huge advantage for JB!

JetBlue has two MAJOR advantages over Southwest:
1) The hub and spoke system. While JB flies some point to point service (mostly to Florida), they are generally a hub and spoke airline which allows it to move passengers more efficiently, and make better utilization of their aircraft. This can be seen by their loadfactors (Soutwest 65%, JB 85%)!
2) Lower labor costs

With these advantages, there will be some things that will burden JB.
1) Their maintenance costs will increase as their fleet ages
2) Their labor costs will creep up
3) Other carriers will start to retire older aircraft, which will primarily reduce JB's advantage with fuel efficiency (MD-80's, DC-9's, and 737-200).

I think JB really has to be careful with their growth! I can't emphasize this more. JetBlue has more aircraft on order than any other U.S. airline. They need to be careful not to grow the airline beyond their ability to manage it, and they need to continue to keep costs under control as they expand!

Also, I just want to chime in that I feel none of the legacy carriers will be gone in 5-10 years. That's my opinion. All in all, I feel JB will be around in 5-10 years.

SkyHigh 01-16-2006 07:16 AM

In ten years JB could have conqured the world or be reduced to a collection of relics on EBay. Either outcome is a possibility. That goes for every other airline as well.

SkyHigh

Fly4Beer 01-17-2006 07:56 AM

My magic 8-ball says probably yes, but we'll let you know in 5-10 years.

FlyByWire 02-12-2006 07:33 PM

As long as they can find folks to Fly4Beer or Fly4Water they should be around for another 5, but if you start to see a management slowly bailing out of the company, specially if that follows a 3 or 4 consecutive quarter losses being reported it will go the way that most start ups do, down the toilet. They were smart enough at least to get the Fly4Free crowd for the RJ portion of the operations, so that should help it go a bit further than it would off.

My crystal ball says 4 quarters in a row of losses followed by some management bailing followed by shrinking of the fleet, followed by JetBlue 4sale, followed by Chapter 7. I give it till 2012.

gottajob4now 02-13-2006 12:22 PM

Jet Blue lost money last quarter (Q4 2005) and projects to lose money for all of 2006. Their costs are going up, they got a sweetheart deal on their planes from Airbus which now have to be (finally) paid for, and they face increasing competition on every front from other carriers (including the bankrupt ones) over which they no longer hold a cost advantage. Most significantly, they have embracred an aggressive expansion plan with two fleets that will make it very difficult to fill every seat. By contrast, Southwest expands at a comparatively conservative rate of 3-5% annually. They were and are completely unhedged as far as fuel contracts go and they were hit harder by increased oil prices on a relative basis than any other US airline (statistics from industry analyst Planebusiness). They will be around, but their day in the media spotlight as the bright new kid on the block is probably over - (sorry, guys, welcome to the real world).
Have you ever asked yourself why anyone in their right mind would start a new airline in such an inhospitable environment? The answer is that an airline is a huge cash cow - enormous amounts of money churn through even small airlines. The guy who starts one can make gobs of money if he even collects a penny on every dollar - and it would be nice for him if he can keep it going forever- but not necessary. If it folds he will still walk away with a ton of money. It is this short term get-rich-quick mentality which will continue to attract new low-fare entrants into the marketplace and prevent anyone from making any money and continue putting downward pressure on pilot's earning potential. That being said, it seems to me that Jetblue is a relatively well-run airline and I certainly would not blame anyone for taking a job there - I guess they ARE the future- such as it is- and good luck to them.

banger 02-13-2006 12:30 PM


Originally Posted by gottajob4now
Jet Blue lost money last quarter (Q4 2005) and projects to lose money for all of 2006. Their costs are going up, they got a sweetheart deal on their planes from Airbus which now have to be (finally) paid for, and they face increasing competition on every front from other carriers (including the bankrupt ones) over which they no longer hold a cost advantage. Most significantly, they have embracred an aggressive expansion plan with two fleets that will make it very difficult to fill every seat. By contrast, Southwest expands at a comparatively conservative rate of 3-5% annually. They were and are completely unhedged as far as fuel contracts go and they were hit harder by increased oil prices on a relative basis than any other US airline (statistics from industry analyst Planebusiness). They will be around, but their day in the media spotlight as the bright new kid on the block is probably over - (sorry, guys, welcome to the real world).
Have you ever asked yourself why anyone in their right mind would start a new airline in such an inhospitable environment? The answer is that an airline is a huge cash cow - enormous amounts of money churn through even small airlines. The guy who starts one can make gobs of money if he even collects a penny on every dollar - and it would be nice for him if he can keep it going forever- but not necessary. If it folds he will still walk away with a ton of money. It is this short term get-rich-quick mentality which will continue to attract new low-fare entrants into the marketplace and prevent anyone from making any money and continue putting downward pressure on pilot's earning potential. That being said, it seems to me that Jetblue is a relatively well-run airline and I certainly would not blame anyone for taking a job there - I guess they ARE the future- such as it is- and good luck to them.

Wow, quite a few inaccurate facts here. I hesitate to answer them as I think the writer might have been just joking.

Nashmd11 02-13-2006 02:22 PM

Airbus and NYC bent over for JB. The A320's are MX free I heard for up to 5 years. Full Waranty from Airbus. Also the cost advantage is not as great as it once was over legacy carriers. So once the legacy carriers merge and lower cost, JB and Sprit are history. And I hope they do disappear, I do not support any labor group that willfully undercuts there peers. Trying to change a FAR so they can fly more!!!! Idiots that deserve to put out on the streets.

Short Bus Drive 02-13-2006 02:58 PM


Originally Posted by Nashmd11
Airbus and NYC bent over for JB. The A320's are MX free I heard for up to 5 years. Full Waranty from Airbus. Also the cost advantage is not as great as it once was over legacy carriers. So once the legacy carriers merge and lower cost, JB and Sprit are history. And I hope they do disappear, I do not support any labor group that willfully undercuts there peers. Trying to change a FAR so they can fly more!!!! Idiots that deserve to put out on the streets.


How'd Spirit get in the mix? Spirit was around for 15 years now, BEFORE Airbus'. And what co. do you work for? I hope you get paid THE MOST OF ALL carriers, 'cause if you work for one penny less, then you too are "undercutting" your peers.
And NOBODY DESERVES TO BE OUT ON THE STREETS.:mad:


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