I'm European, Norwegian actually, yes we have been driving vehicles for decades at 30-40 mpg. These vehicles are mostly diesel powered. I think its safe to mention on approximately 50% of the autos in Europe are diesel powered.

We also have old/small roads in most urban areas and this contributed to a steady growth of small cars. not big SUVs. Small cars were developed for these tight parking and small streets. I believe most Europeans would love to have an SUV, however they won't acknowledge it in public.

Unfortunately, the expensive and mandated environmental policy that has taken hold in the last twenty years in Europe was only really possible because we always had access to a viable public train and bus system. European culture is totally different than North America. We also have hundred of thousands of Bicyles with riders riding to work everyday in the rain. I don't understand why people envy this lifestyle.

Yes, Europe looks very tempting to an increasing gullible American public. I can guarantee you Europe is very inconvient and expensive for personal living. Its hard to really get ahead. Please don't look at us as a role model on most economic, social and environmental policy unless you like socialism.

Energy efficiency, not conservation is what should be the goal. Oil industry is like most industries with a cyclical flow of peaks and valley.

The sky is not falling but I think the price of oil and gold will.

EAHINC

Actually, I'm not a gullible American. I have lived in Europe and traveled there and have a large number of family members there. And you are right socialism seems to be taking hold over there. However, my point was not to become a socialist nation, it is that cars can be built to attain better gas mileage, despite the claims by Detroit that it will cause extreme economic hardship.

As far as mass transit goes, sign me up. The amount of money I save bu utilizing mass transit is encouragement enough. For those who do not wish to use it that's just fine too.

My point still stands though. I sit here thinking with absolutely no numbers to back me up other than a little bit of logic. If half of the people in the U.S. who were in an economic situation to do so, were to purchase a higher milleage vehicle, not even a hybrid or pure electric, the short term demand for gasoline could go down significantly. On top of that, with more of these vehicles being built the price will eventually come down as the technology becomes cheaper. Just look at the cost of a hybrid car here as compared to five years ago.

Quite frankly I am confused by your last statement. How are efficiency and conservation different? If I efficiently use the gasoline I am putting into my car, does that not conserve said supply for further use? Or put another way, If I file for FL390 in order to run the engines efficiently, does that not conserve fuel for when the Washington center insists that I descend to 11000 ft. 300 miles from destination?

In 10-15 years I have a feeling the U.S. population will decrease due to the baby boomers departing the pattern. Hopefully it will mean less consumption of oil thereby lowering the price. Besides, it's these people who are stopping us from building any new refineries and nuclear power plants. Peace, love, and flower power.....

Mass transit will never work in this country other than in the inner-city. Most towns/cities are just too spread out.

I'm interested in the new Honda fuel cell. It appears to be promising.

Even w/ the baby boomers departing the pattern, oil consumption is expected to skyrocket over the next 10-15 years...it has to as economic growth/development (GDP) is inextricably tied to oil consumption. Of course, none of these forecasts for increased oil consumption take into account the possibility of Peak Oil...the forecasts just assume that the oil will be there. That's the problem. Global oil production today is about 85 million bbl/day, it's expected to increase to roughly 115-120 million bbl/day within the next 15 yrs. or so. Today, oil production is flattening out despite increased demand, so I don't see how the world will be able to efficiently produce 30 plus million more bbl/day.

Hydrogen fuel cell technology is at least 30 years away from becoming a viable business. It's a catch 22. Not enough producers of hydrogen vehicles/devices want to produce those devices because there is no infrastructure in place to efficiently move the hydrogen...companies that could put into place infrastructre to move the hydrogen are hesitant to do so because there is a lack of hydrogen-powered devices/vehicles in production. Again, most experts in hydrogen will tell you that we're at least 30 years away, maybe more, from hydrogen power becoming mainstream.

The most disturbing statistic that I've heard is that if right now, every single American bought a hybrid vehicle and used that vehicle as their primary mode of transportation, in 5 years we would be consuming just as much oil as we do today. It's an enormous issue...the construction of your average vehicle consumes roughly 27 to 54 bbl of oil. Your average laptop consumes 11 times its weight in oil during production. Now multiply all of this by the world's exponentially increasing population that continues to be dependent upon oil, I just don't see how there can't be tough times ahead.

The downside to all of this talk about alternative energy is that it takes a tremendous amount of energy to produce alternative energy...that initial energy output comes from the fossil fuels. So, we really should have started our move toward alternative energy years ago. The longer we wait, the harder the fall. It's sort of like waiting until you're too close to that thunderstorm to start your deviation, not a whole lot you can do but prepare for a bumpy ride...The real issue w/ the baby boomers is that thery're intimately aware of all of this, but they know they'll be gone soon, so they're not concerned about fixing it.

Any ideas on how we'll be powering the civil and military aviation fleets after piston/turbine fuels, for reasons either economic, strategic, or supply driven, are no longer usable?

eg:

Hydrogen?
Nuclear?
Electric?
Solar?
Water Cracker?:eek:

Even w/ the baby boomers departing the pattern, oil consumption is expected to skyrocket over the next 10-15 years...it has to as economic growth/development (GDP) is inextricably tied to oil consumption. Of course, none of these forecasts for increased oil consumption take into account the possibility of Peak Oil...the forecasts just assume that the oil will be there. That's the problem. Global oil production today is about 85 million bbl/day, it's expected to increase to roughly 115-120 million bbl/day within the next 15 yrs. or so. Today, oil production is flattening out despite increased demand, so I don't see how the world will be able to efficiently produce 30 plus million more bbl/day.

Hydrogen fuel cell technology is at least 30 years away from becoming a viable business. It's a catch 22. Not enough producers of hydrogen vehicles/devices want to produce those devices because there is no infrastructure in place to efficiently move the hydrogen...companies that could put into place infrastructre to move the hydrogen are hesitant to do so because there is a lack of hydrogen-powered devices/vehicles in production. Again, most experts in hydrogen will tell you that we're at least 30 years away, maybe more, from hydrogen power becoming mainstream.

The downside to all of this talk about alternative energy is that it takes a tremendous amount of energy to produce alternative energy...that initial energy output comes from the fossil fuels. So, we really should have started our move toward alternative energy years ago. The longer we wait, the harder the fall. It's sort of like waiting until you're too close to that thunderstorm to start your deviation, not a whole lot you can do but prepare for a bumpy ride...The real issue w/ the baby boomers is that thery're intimately aware of all of this, but they know they'll be gone soon, so they're not concerned about fixing it.

Honda dot com

"A limited number of FCX Clarity vehicles will be available for lease only in the Torrance, Santa Monica and Irvine areas in mid-2008. The lease amount will be around $600 per month for three years and it includes maintenance. As hydrogen-supply infrastructure expands, Honda will make more of these remarkable cars available to the public."

hydrogencarsnow dot com
"General Motors has announced that they are developing a home hydrogen fueling station for use with their line of Equinox Fuel Cell vehicles that they will begin rolling out in limited numbers in 2007. The General Motors hydrogen generator will be able to run on either solar energy or electricity."

Oil demand will drop over the next 10-15 years. India's and China's market growth, IMO, is unsustainable. I believe we are going to see a remarkable turn around in vehicle production. We are going to see hydrogen fuel cell's become the majority of vehicles, not the minority over the next few years (10-15). We are on the verge of a global recession too.

I don't know what will fuel aircraft in the future. I suspect oil. Demand for fuel products is close to peaking just as oil production has (apparently). As our gasoline burning cars are replaced with hydrogen cars (or something else) there will be enough oil to meet future demand with significant reduction in price. I don't subscribe to the 'doomsday' outlook that so many others do.

Now that gas is around $3.20 here in PNS I've had gas siphoned out of my truck twice in the last week. How do I know you ask? The jkass' don't put the fuel cap back on tightly and I inevitably get a check engine light. Now that makes me angry enough to stay up and try to catch'em...

402DRVR,

No Efficiency and Conservation are not the same. They cannot be used interchangeably.

Efficiency- Means receiving the same results by the use of technology that requires less energy to perform the same service or function resulting in the same lifestyle.

Conservation- Is often mandated from governments and "do gooders" that leads to going without something. This is an all time favorite code word of the socialist governments in Europe.

EAHINC

BUTANOL...Dupont is currently in final development of the enzymes, and pilot plants are going up in conjunction with BP Amoco.

Currently, we're stuck with ethanol, since we don't have any strains of microbes than can ferment corn into butanol without dying off too early in the process. Dupont is developing microbe strains that are more resistant to butanol...which packs a lot higher energy density than ethanol, has a freezing point much closer to conventional jet fuel, and can go through existing infrastructure without corroding it (unlike ethanol).

Read last month's issue in PopSci...the cover story is on alt fuels for aviation, and a prototype hydrogen powered ramjet designed by the concorde folks.

We can get hydrogen and butanol with current tech, and it's possible to run jets off of those fuels...in conjunction with continuous descent procedures, lighter and lighter materials, and better energy storage devices (some Chinese dudes are doing stuff with torric coil batteries that could potentially charge up off the grid (nuke, etc.) and power N1 fans like a mofo))...we might be ok for another 50-100 years.

Of course, we could also do some pretty obvious things to save fuel like using tugs to get planes much further down the taxi line before starting engines, and shutting down the second you're clear of the hold short line and having tugs bring you in. And having computer assigned taxi clearances based on algorithms that compute the most efficient sequencing based on aircraft position and requested start time.

There are lots of known oil reserves, and oil sands, that don't become economically viable to develop until oil is where it is now, so there is somewhat of a "release valve" there...i.e. BNP Paribas has a massive field (some say second only to Saudi Arabia) offshore Brazil, that is only now being developed (comes online 2009-10) because it's 30,000 feet underwater. It's a massive oilfield.

There will certainly be bumps along the road, but I firmly believe we'll make it...in addition, most people don't discuss the fact that the Saudis keep it a highly guarded secret how much oil they really have.

As an interesting side note, Iraq has the longest sustainable oil reserves of all the middle eastern producers, since it's pretty much been offline for the last 15 years...it's become one of the most "untapped" reserves around.