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Who Is Next?

Old 04-08-2008, 02:27 PM
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Well, I hope the answer to that question is "nobody." I'm doing my best to support you guys - flying on UAL in a couple weeks, then CAL soon thereafter.

From Associated Press:

NEW YORK - Aloha Airlines, ATA, Skybus — one week, three airlines out of business. Add in soon-to-be-defunct Champion Air and December casualty MAXjet Airways, and last week's rapid-fire round of airline failures starts to look like an ominous trend.

Considering the heavy toll high fuel prices are taking on the industry, it's no surprise travelers, investors, airline employees — and bankruptcy lawyers — are wondering who might be next.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24015471/
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Old 04-08-2008, 02:37 PM
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It may be Mesa. As for pilots, this would be good for us in the long run. Even though it would initially hurt the pilots over at Mesa, that operation is dragging us all down. It would be somewhat of a consolidation prize to the Aloha pilots if that were to happen.
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Old 04-08-2008, 02:41 PM
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Mesa, Sun Country, Spirit, Frontier- Especially if Fuel stays at 105 and Higher- Within 12 to 18 months.
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Old 04-08-2008, 02:43 PM
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ExpressJet has been mentioned in some articles lately, because of our fuel independence on our Branded side. However we hedged 70% of our fuel for 2008 at $2.40/gal, so we won't feel the pain as much as others. Our fuel on the CAL and Delta CPA's are covered. Thankfully someone in our planning was being smart.
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Old 04-08-2008, 02:48 PM
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He mentioned Airtran as well.. can some one comment on that?
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Old 04-08-2008, 02:58 PM
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I think all eyes are on Mesa and Frontier.

Mesa has been losing money badly. They just lost a 36 airplane contract with Delta. Mesa's performance for United Express has been abysmal. United has been picking up Mesa's slack with TSA and XJT. US Air has made it known that they do not forsee Mesa as a codeshare in the future. Pilots are leaving in mass quantities (what, 700-1000 pilots left last year, many of them making lateral moves). They lost an $80 million dollar lawsuit to Hawaiian. I believe Aloha's creditors can still sue Mesa. Pilots contract is up for negotiations, and they will not settle for an industry worst contract again! Their stock just got delisted from the S&P 500 (I think they are at about $1/share). Mesa will fail soon, and this will be good for the airline industry as a whole.

Frontier is a one hub airline. Almost every single one of their flights either departs from or arrives in DEN. United Airlines (the world's second largest airline) has their second largest hub in DEN, so Frontier is not even the largest airline at their major airport. Second, the entrance of Southwest into the DEN market has put tons of pressure on Frontier. They have sold several of their A319's (maybe some were A318's...). Lynx, their start up regional airline, has cost a lot in start up costs.

Both airlines have a decent amount of cash on hand, but this is the airline industry.

I am curious to see the first quarter earnings for all airlines. This will be a good glimpse into the future, since the price of oil will not be coming down.
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Old 04-08-2008, 03:11 PM
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duh, airtran made $ in the 1st quarter.record loads yield yadda yadaa .
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Old 04-08-2008, 03:23 PM
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And Alfred Kahn, the "Grand High Guru of Airline Deregulation" looked down from his ivory tower of academia at Cornell and said: "We did not anticipate these variables in our model...Now I must go have have lunch with those who fawn upon me as the genius I am. Funny...there are fewer and fewer folks at the luncheons these days." Not a bad gig for a guy who couldn't fly a paper airplane and never even managed so much as a hot dog stand at the county fair!
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Old 04-08-2008, 03:41 PM
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MESA, MESA AND MESA close to its last breath. Should we be concerned? or celebrate.
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Old 04-08-2008, 03:46 PM
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Originally Posted by tazzzzed View Post
duh, airtran made $ in the 1st quarter.record loads yield yadda yadaa .
Airtran does not release 1st quarter earnings until 24 Apr. They have issued no guidence to the markets on expected results at this time.
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