This is Ridiculus
 

Continental is downgraded by J.P. Morgan
Firm upgrades Alaska, JetBlue on lower bankruptcy risk









NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- J.P. Morgan downgraded Continental Airlines to underweight from neutral Monday, citing the stock's valuation.


The investment bank lifted its rating on Alaska Air and JetBlue to neutral from underweight, citing their lower risks of bankruptcy due to record-high jet-fuel prices and their ability to withstand a "war of attrition."
Though investors, management and analysts may talk about airlines acting collectively to reduce capacity to firm up revenue, the reality is that they are more likely to dig in and try to out last each other, according to the J.P. Morgan analyst note.
As evidence, the investment bank noted that capacity cuts thus far have fallen far short of what executives have said are necessary, making bankruptcy -- even among the so-called legacy carriers -- a question of when rather than if.
"There will be blood," wrote analyst Jamie Baker in the research report, forecasting a 2008 operating loss for the industry of $7.2 billion, wider then a prior forecast of a loss of $4.6 billion. That would be an all-time record for the industry, he noted.
J.P. Morgan also listed the airlines it thinks are at Chapter 11 risk, from lowest to highest: Southwest Airlines (LUV:Southwest Airlines Co.
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<IMG class=pixelTracking height=1 width=1 border=0>LCC 7.87, +0.07, +0.9%) .
Further, credit-card companies can represent a much more significant risk to airlines than debt as their ability to impose unilateral holdbacks can exact heavy tolls on liquidity and cash balances, J.P. Morgan said. http://i.mktw.net/mw3/News/greendot.gif
Christopher Hinton is a reporter for MarketWatch based in New York

what is so "ridiculus" about it?


Here is the rest of the list:
J.P. Morgan also listed the airlines it thinks are at Chapter 11 risk, from lowest to highest:

Southwest Airlines (LUV)
Alaska Air Lines (ALK)
Delta Air Lines (DAL)
AirTran (AAI)
Continental (CAL)
JetBlue (JBLU)
American Airlines parent AMR Corp. (AMR)
United Airlines parent UAL Corp. (UAUA)
Northwest Airlines (NWA)
U.S. Airways (LCC).

Wow, looks like NWA is pretty far down the list. I'm pretty sure the arbitrator will take this analysis into account.

But what happened to the "great balance sheet" they're always bragging about? Remember, DAL needs NWA in order to survive...right, guys? :rolleyes:

You just couldn't resist a chance of throwing a jab at NWA could you? Do we really need anymore worthless threads thanks to your flame contributions? :cool: Whats the point?

They could be looking at it as a merger tatic much like the whole AA/TWA debacale.

I would like to know what criteria they used to determine this list, who knows how arbitrary it is, maybe the guy writing it owns some stock of the top listed airlines.

I admit it was a bit of a low blow...:o

But seriously, minus the flamebait...how is that possible, given that many people do consider NWA to have decent financials?

I dont know i guess it depends on what news "source" you believe. NWA financials are pretty good right now based on cash vs debt ratio. Some will say the financials are better then anyone else out there. Even RA has complimented the financials at NWA. As far as you/I go as pilots we should be more concerned on getting our stuff together and stop the fighting back and forth between pilot groups. Its counterproductive and does nothing to bring us together so that we can move forward as the new Delta.

Ideally, that is a great plan in theory. I'd be saying the same thing too, if I was in line for a massive windfall. I'll just leave it at that. :cool:

Well FWIW i hope neither side gets a "massive windfall". I for one am ready to see this get finished so we can more forward.

Yeah, I question the NWA call. Outside of Southwest, I think that they're in the best shape financially. I haven't looked at Alaska's financials, so they may be better than NWA. But NWA's definitely in the wrong place on that list.

Thats what i was saying. These "news sources" obviously dont have very good sources. ;)

Well maybe....
 

As was mentioned in another thread, maybe they think NWA will burn a lot of cash/resources making the merger transition happen. Its not like NWA mgt has any real motivation to run a good airline, their motivation is to get the merger done, get paid and get lost.

I am surprised to see Jet Blue ranked as so unlikely to go ch 11, sounds to me like JP Morgan has some high end customers that want to unload Jet Blue stock.

You appear to be a good dude! Please convince your senior greedy bastards to buy into the "no windfall" concept. Too bad you're not on the negotiating committee.

At the end of the day...it will be junior guys like you and I (and unfortunately, probably you first, due to LOA 19) who will get the sh&t end of the stick, if your "boys" continue their irrational clown show. The rational NWA guys need to put some pressure on their negotiators to be realistic.

Ding ding ding


I honestly think that a joint contract will be agreed upon before the LOA 19 ever has to take effect. Getting this thing figured out together is whats best for ALL of us.

I'll drink a Summit EPA to that! If only it had a chance of happening....

[quote=Superpilot92;386250
NWA financials are pretty good right now based on cash vs debt ratio. Some will say the financials are better then anyone else out there.

I don't think any of the airlines look "pretty good right now..."

Scoop

"analyst" Jamie Baker is a shill for whoever his firm, JPM, has business with. His boss at JPM tells Baker to tank NW, or CAL or AMR stock and he issues his biased research that tells a story to make JPM clients some quick coin. No substance and consistently inaccurate predictions. His "list" means nothing.

Yes. You must be right. Because the SEC is turning a blind eye on what you're referring to, especially after Enron/Martha Stewart/Tyco/etc. etc.

Have you heard of Ivan Boesky?

I suppose the moon landing was a conspiracy, too, right?

You just had to go and change your post didn't you? Was it to hard having a somewhat optimistic post? ;)

yes..every time I start feeling optimistic, reality (and a few beers) kick in....:D

Ahh,Its much easier in optimist world. We got a letter from our MEC the other day that said the recent meetings have been "very productive". so coming from us mean old NWA guys thats a good sign, right? ;)

Spaceman Spliff,

Are you a SW poolie? If so, what are you going to do?

Carl

I'm staying at DAL...very tough choice.

Spaceman,

Gutsy move Mav.........hang on at the bottom of Big D with pending merger or go feel the luv at SWA. Seroiusly though, that would be a very tough choice....how did you come to your decision? Good luck.

Agree, it's one of those things where I'll probably kick myself in a couple of years (or sooner). My wife and I want to live in Minneapolis close to our families. With the merger, I won't have to commute (eventually). I want to fly internationally again at some point, too.

SWA is at the top of the heap right now in pay, etc...but history indicates that they can't stay there forever. Or so I tell myself... :eek: And--very silly reason--I don't want to fly the same airplane for the rest of my career.

I'm sure those reasons sound lame, they would if I was reading them. But I'm at peace with the decision.

Spliff,

Actually, living where you want to live and not having to commute are good enough reasons to roll the dice and hope it all works out. Quality of life is one of the only things we still can somewhat control in this crazy job. Good on you and best of luck to you and your family.

Not lame at all!

I had the same decision to make while furloughed from Delta in 1994 - I turned down a chance to interview at SWA. I couldn't see myself flying 4-6 legs a day in a 737 the rest of my career. I wanted to be an airline pilot to fly international, so here I am...

Is it the right decision?

Ask me in 16 years, but so far I'm happy with it.


Kevin

Don't worry...Be happy! (But buying a lottery ticket may still be a good idea.)

Best of luck, two great companies! Hopefully, it will work out for you. My crystal ball is always IMC.

Crystal Ball IMC
 

Yeah Carl P,

I'm right here witcha' in IMC, Vacuum failure, raw data...

Who knew that the mighty Pan Am, Eastern, and TWA would fall. Who could have predicted UAL, DAL, NWA all filing Chapter 11?

On the flip side, who would have predicted the rise of the fractionals as being some of the best places to work...?

What this shows is that we truly are "ALL IN THIS TOGETHER". When even one pilot is laid off, it devalues our entire profession and allows management to say "Hey, we have people who will PAY to do your job. This is where we get pay-for-training and foreign workers taking seats up in "ATP" programs. You couldn't get an entry-level multi job in the early nineties because of all the foreign workers taking up seats. As ERAU churned out CFI every three months, they ended up working at Taco Bell because foreigners were paying to instruct.

While this seems like a deviation to the thread, I am just telling these cautionary tales because 15 years ago doesn't seem so far behind us anymore, and it may come back to bite us...

In Unity,

B727DRVR

What is the meaning of "ridiculus"? Public school strikes again.

exacly....

I hope your decision pays off and it's nice to see a Delta guy admit that he wants to move North. Not everyone loves the South.

haha he quoted you before you deleted. Its ok to admit that merging with NWA has its pluses for you. ;)

the mispeling was sposed to be ironik. :D

Oh i just realized that your post you deleted wasn't the one he quoted you on. Oops. I see the irony you speak of now, LOL.