Question For Seasoned Pilots
 

hello everyone,

i have a question for the "older" airline pilots out there, specifically pilots who have been in the industry for a good number of years...

I know the industry is cyclyical. it has its ups and downs. But is this recent downturn in the industry something you have seen before, or is it much bigger? is it as bad as all the "younger" pilots say it is?

The reason why i ask is because i feel like the aviation industry is very much in trouble with no hope for the future, and for a guy in flight school this is very disheartening. i talked to a united pilot the other day who has been flying for a very long time. he said he has been through many hard times (furloughs and bankruptcies etc) but that this recent turn of events is just the usual biz. i remember after 9-11 everybody thought it was game over for the aviation industry...but it bounced back up and became stronger...i just wanna know what the experienced pilots think of it all?

thanks a ton! p.s sorry for the spelling...it's late and i am too tired to use spell check haha

commercial aviation isnt going away...not by a long shot.. but it will be different going forward over the next few years.

And then some !






ITS all about timing !:cool:

Until people stop flying and take the covered wagons across the US, aviation will be around. Don't listen to people, do what you want. Do you want to fly for a living? If so, do it.

but........ have a back-up plan if the "timing" is not in your favor.

and if the timing is in your favor......also have a back up plan!:)

I think it's THE BIG ONE!:eek:

The industry did not come back stronger than before. The industry barely came back to small profits after gutting itself for many years. This current fuel problem has the industry much more screwed than they were after 9/11. There just isn't anything left to steal from the employees and very little left to wrangle from the suppliers. Unless fuel prices go down a lot, at least one of the legacies will die and the survivors will be just hanging on, most likely in bankruptcy protection. I don't know if the analysts are correct about needing a 20 percent cut in capacity before the seat prices can be adjusted enough to pay the bills, but if they are the airlines are not cutting fast enough to accomplish that. They are making cuts to outlast one or more of the competition- last long enough for the seat capacity to be gone through attrition.

The airlines have been a very cyclical industry, but their history is actually very short overall. The oil age may be coming to an end in the near future and that will have a huge impact on aviation- bigger than any of the cycles it has already gone through. I love flying and bet my career on a pilots life, but things are definitely getting very spooky. There will continue to be airplanes, but nobody knows what the jobs will be or how many of them there will be as things change. There is no such thing as a hybrid or plug-in jet. The high prices we are paying now will surely advance research for other fuel options at a much quicker rate than before, but it isn't going to happen fast enough for the airlines to not have a massive overhaul if oil doesn't come down quickly. Even in the cycles we have seen many mighty legacies that went away. This job has always been a gamble, but the odds are just getting worse and worse for the players now. The highest pay that was more worth the risk to try to attain is now gone. Now you are risking your time and money on a career with a lower ceiling and most likely less positions in the near term even with the lower ceiling. Maybe pay will go up again if some new technology brings the price to propel the aircraft way down so that the profits are high enough for the pilots to demand a higher chunk, but right now the opposite is happening and I doubt we'll be seeing a new, significantly cheaper fuel in the next 5 to 10 years. I sure hope I'm wrong about most of this. Good luck in this crazy profession.

don't forget age 65. that's a first and we have 4 1/2 years left until people have to start retiring again. with furloughs it could mean that much longer on the street because growth is what will be the driving force in recalls.

Dude, the older I get the more I realize how I dont want to be that pair of guys at the table next to mine talking yada yada yada, about boring business stuff. If flying makes you happy then jump in and be happy doing it, but dont expect it will be a cakewalk either. Keeps your ears (and contacts) open for lateral or upwards moves in the business. Good advice to keep a side skill to augment or fall back upon for income. Love the one your with!

Couldn't agree more
 

For the Pilots who have been around the block more than a few times.

Do you remember the "Regulated" Industry in 1973 when the 1st Oil shock occured and Gas prices doubled to .50 cents a gallon? We had to drive around town to find a gas station that had gas and wait in line for an hour. Many of the Legacy Airlines (the largest of which didn't have more than 2000 Pilots) furloughed. The economy was terrible, the Vietnam war had torn the country apart. It was the end of the world.

In 1979 after deregulation, the second Oil shock occured. (you remember, deregulation was going to save the industry by offering competition). The 3 Mile Island nuclear accident scared everyone.
Oil spikes to new levels and Gas went to 75 cents a gallon. We saw double digit inflation and Mortgage and interest rates were 14%. TWA, American, United, Western and Pan Am all had Pilots on Furlough. Many smaller start up Airlines failed. Everyone traded in their BIG American gas guzzling cars for gas stingy Japanese imports. It is a BIG Election Year. It was the end of the world, sound familiar?

1991 Sadam invaded Kuwait and Oil spiked again because of Fear.
USair, NWA, AA, Continental furlughed.

2001 9/11 and Sars Airlines Furloughed the economy slowed.

2008. Oil spikes to new record levels, the Economy sinks. Everyone is trading in the BIG Gas guzzlers for Japanese Imports, although now many are Built in China and Mexico as well as the US. Many Airlines are Furloughling. The Iraq War has divided the country. It is a BIG election Year. It is once again the End of the World.

We are in terrible economic times. Everyone is in fear of their jobs. The future seems uncertain, but if you believe that history repeats itself and look back over 35 years., the more things change the more similar they look.
Things will get better, but the road will be bumpy for a while longer.

History repeating itself ! Can,t wait till the equivalent of the 80,s returns:eek:







Just riding on that mystery ship.

Otto's right. No one is going to get in their car and drive from LAX to JFK. Aviation will survive.

Don't listen to the news, its all doom and gloom, end of the world type ****.

Hang in there, things will look up eventually. Its just gonna take a minute or two. :cool:

Place your bets
 

I agree with Redeye. Obtaining and keeping a high-paying airline job has always been a long shot. The difference today is that plenty of low-paying airline jobs have been added to the profession, leading to lots of disgruntled pilots instead of disappointed non-pilots. It seems worse now because those who missed the brass ring in the past would simply disappear into another career field and not post on pilot forums (except for Skyhigh, who has been a voice crying in the wilderness). The wheel of fortune will spin upward again, but no one knows when, how fast, or for how long. Those of us who have seen previous cycles may be especially bad forecasters, but after the fact we'll provide a very good analysis of what happened. ;)

Both good points. But in addition to having these, you will also have be equipped with a certain mind set.

This goes along with the timing thing. But don't get into the career thinking yours will be all roses composed of stellar progression, high pay, and the best QOL with little, if any backward movement. There have been guys get into this job and had great careers, while others got in at the SAME time and didn't have such great careers.

If you can accept the FACT that your career might suck, and suck big time at some point or another, you will be less disgruntled when it happens and be able to roll with punches better. Doesn't mean you like it when it happens, just be prepared for it. If you've got the back up plan, great.

It's a fun job, but can be a crappy career.

I'd recommend you forego flying and get into airline management. Why you ask? Well, in that line of work it won't matter how well you do your job, and when you really screw things up, you can just take your golden parachute and move to another company. No, I'm not cynical. I second dojetdriver..."It's a fun job, but can be a crappy career"

[quote=DYNASTY HVY;424672]History repeating itself ! Can,t wait till the equivalent of the 80,s returns:eek:







Me too so I can wear my Members only jacket and parachute pants again!

Commercial aviation will continue to change, just like it always has. Going from props to jets, from 3 man to 2 man crews, 10 year upgrade from working the panel to FO, regulated to deregulated, and so forth.

However, once labor makes concessions, don't plan on ever getting them back. A-funds are gone for good. B funds and 401(k)s are here now, but you can't guarantee that airline X will contribute towards them in 10 years.

I think the main difference now (other than fuel) is that there's an overabundance of people who are (1) qualified to enter the career field, and (2) more than willing to start out at horrible wages in hopes of someday getting to Captain's pay. The problem is that they might never get there.

I'm not saying that you shouldn't be a pilot. However, you should get a good education and always have something to fall back on. Don't plan on making it rich in the airline industry.

You mean "B" scale pay? :(

It would be interesting if someone would do a objective comparison of the "cycles" of the airline industry in the last 40 or so years. That is, if you accept that a cycle has peaks and valleys, are the valleys getting deeper and occurring with greater frequency and duration and the peaks occurring less often, and for shorter durations, and are becoming less lofty? Super conditions such as United Airlines short lived golden contract didn't last very long. And post 9-11 recovery was very short indeed. Regarding the so-called golden era of the 80's, well, things kind of weren't so good until the mid 80's. And then the rising peak was eroded a bit by the infamous B scale. No, not every one experienced that, but I think it set many precedents, although it was a concept that was manifest over the years in different ways.

"The reason why i ask is because i feel like the aviation industry is very much in trouble with no hope for the future"

I don't see it that way unless the price of oil continues to go up. Myself, I tend to agree with those who say the bubble will pop. But I'd say up to this point, I don't see this cycle any different than the others in that the fortunes of the airlines tend to ebb and flow with the economy. If the economy is in the crapper, so will the airlines be.

Also. Remember there are non-airline jobs in the biz that are quite good jobs.

My dad was hired by UAL in '65. He tried to keep me out of the airline industry. I was hired by United about thirty years after he was. All I wanted to do was fly jets, for United.

He was right, I should have gone to law school...

The "up and down" nature of this industry is not worth it...

To the OP - This downturn is very bad because we have not recovered from the last one.

I don't recommend this industry to anyone.

Some talk about timing... I say it's ALL about timing. Take about 50 years off of 2008 and the timing would be GREAT!

It's just a matter of time before foreign pilots infiltrate.

I'm trying to think of something positive but "cloud surfing" and "sunsets" aren't canceling out the lost pensions, pay cuts, abrogated contracts, destroyed moral, management bonuses, furloughs and age 65 realities.

Would you recommend it to someone who has the ability to retain their old job at any time? I am considering making the switch. My job is high paying and very stable, although I watch the clock too much in my cube. I love to fly and don't mind an alternative life style.

If you got nothing to lose, and can just jump right back on the merry go-around, go fer it ~~

The reality is that MOST jobs are not very stable. Companies no longer feel that employees are an asset to nurture and respect, and employees dont feel that way toward employers, I guess it is an all about me world. Bottom line, "minimize your maximum regret". Translation is dont get to be an old drooling fart and look back on your life with a bunch of "I wish I would have's" and "If only I would have's". Life life with zeal and adventure whether flying is your dream or whatever. Remember, this forum might not be a perfect representation of the industry's attitudes as a whole, so take some advice and then make up your own mind.
BD

[quote=flybynuts;424939]Mine are hanging in the closet:D

You are 100% correct. No matter what industry, if you are an employee you are an "expendable asset". One difference about being a pilot, is that if you are furloughed and try to go to another airline then you start at the very bottom. Compared to other industries where you probably take a pay cut, but not to level 1. However, making a ton of money in any occupation isnt guarranteed. It involves some skill, luck, and timing. Looking on the bright side, what other industry beside aviation, as you advance can you make more money and have more time off?

The industry is obviously changing but you can't quickly get from LAX to Sydney or JFK to HKG except by air. There are significant challenges, not the least of which is the greenies and the carbon taxes being considered in Europe.

But the economies of China, India and others are expanding. One estimate I read said those two countries alone will need thousands of pilots in the next year and tens of thousand in the next decades. So, it depends.. if you want to stay in the US, things may be a bit slimmer for a while but if you are willing to travel, things may be getting fatter.

Previously, foreign carriers were paying at or below scale because many of the applicants were the older guys who wanted to keep flying. No more.. IF the foreign carriers are going to attract LONG TERM employees, they are going to have to pay MORE than the US contracts to get the younger pilots.

But the old rule still applies. Do what you love to do and you never have to go to work. Live within your means and save at least 10% of EVERYTHING you make.

The current focus is very short term and I keep saying it.. that is not without intent. It is an election year and the party out of power always does its best to show how bad things are. Yes, there are problems out there but they are not insurmountable.. unless Phil Gramm was right.

[QUOTE=DYNASTY HVY;425194]don't forget Magnum PI on primetime!

I for one don't plan to hang on to my seniority number till I'm 65. I'll be 59 in October. And I doubt alot of other guys my age will hang on till 65, either. One reason, there's not enough room for our walkers in the cockpit. Just remember, "Old age and treachery always over comes youth and skill."
MD80ZDriver

Historically speaking, very few made the trip. Not so very long ago - the mid 80's - a vacation in Australia or Asia was unheard of. Even a European vacation was a "Once in a Lifetime Event". The 90s were boom times in the US - real wages were up - oil was at historic lows - deregulation worked in as much as consumer cost to fly dropped - so a Bali or Bangkok vacation was de rigeur.

I'm guessing that there will be a structural change in the industry among the surviving airline(s). You just won't have the opportunity to fly like you can today, as prices will eventually have to catch up with costs. Which will price many pax out of the market.

I guess that will mean our travel benefits will become worth something again! :)

if you have the fire burning within you for this profession,just do it, you will find a way,if i listened to everybody when i first started out i'd still be a private pilot,and try to to enjoy it all,even the dues paying years,i treasure my formative years behind the well worn yoke of the DC-3,in a freightdog cockpit, ultimately ,it is all good !

As you can see, there are many viewpoints out there. Most of them driven by personal experience of one type or another (layed off once, layed off twice,Long upgrades, pay cuts etc.)
If you choose to chase the airline brass ring, be ready for a very rocky road.
The future industry will be very different from what you see now.
I think also it depends on who you are working for. If you work for a good company that appreciates it's employees, then you are lucky indeed!
If you work for a bad company, prepare to be miserable for a long time.
Bad companies have a way of taking the enjoyment out of your job.
I, for one, love flying the jet. I just can't stand the company I work for!
Best of luck and be forwarned.

[QUOTE=Laughing_Jakal;425467]

Magnum couldn't touch these guys :cool:

Miami Vice - TV.com