Furloughs!
 

I didn't exactly know where this thread should belong but I am just curious to hear from some fellow pilots that have been in the industry awhile... I have been looking at APCs website that listed whether or not the various airlines are hiring and there are about 4,000 pilots furloughed or expected to be furloughed. A lot of people are saying that this is just how the industry works, ups and downs, and that it will turn around in a few months. I am new to the aviation business and it seems to me that this is pretty severe. Only a few regional airlines are hiring now and with all of the furloughs, I would think that the furloughed pilots will be snatching up these jobs relatively quick, which leaves me a 500TT pilot in a lurch. What are your guys opinions on the industry and whether or not it will bounce back, and if it will then when do you predict? Has this happened before to this extent? Thanks for the future input and sorry if I placed this thread in the wrong section.

You need to post this thread in majors section. Those guys know what's happening.

Yes this has happened before, in the early 90s. Even getting a job as an instructor was tough back then and you had to have at least 2000TT to even get a commuter job, if you were lucky.
Will it bounce back? Yes, but who knows how long this time. I think we are about to be in a full blown recession/depression thanks to oil prices and the housing debacle.
As much as thing change, they stay the same

Flight training has been significantly down for the last 7 years. There was a slight shortage of pilots a year or two ago, but I think we will see a major shortage in pilots in 15 years. Plus, nearly half of the airline pilots flying now will retire in the next 15 years. So hopefully the pay will go back up one day... but Im not counting on it. Look for a major pilot shortage in 10-15 years.

I am pretty new myself, but my opinion is that we are looking at tough times for the next 4-5 years. I think airline staffing levels, experience requirements, etc basically oscillate around an average level. I think what we witnessed over the last couple of years with huge turnover at the regionals, solid growth, etc was merely a spiked deviation from that average. The reality is that many of the pilots getting furloughed were on this upswing and now things are on a down swing, restoring the balance. Minimums will go back up, pilot jobs more competitive, etc. I mean, lets face it, guys in my regional new hire class were hired to fly a 50 pax jet with 300 hours TT. I only had 750 TT, still probably a bit too low, but I certainly didn't complain. I was able to take advantage of it and even though my furlough notice is probably on its way in a few months, I was able to get about 900 (possibly 1000 hours) hours of jet time out of the deal.

One thing is for certain, the airlines will never go away. The national infrastructure is too reliant on them. This is just another storm before the ensuing calm.

One of the most comforting things for me is to know that if I want to do this (still debating honestly) for the rest of my career, I will be given the chance at some point. The only unknown is when that chance will come.

If you have to do something else, non aviation related, thats OK. Have a good time, make money, enjoy being at home, etc. Then, catch it on the upswing - because it will come as surely as the sun will rise tomorrow morning.

Just wait 15 years and you'll be golden. Yup, 15 years of bad schedule/pay/benefits, and by then you'll get a dream job. Of course, by then you'll have a couple X wives and loads of debt, so you might want to start pushing Oberstar to raise the retirement age to 75 so that you can work to repay your previous debts.

OK, I'll be a little more serious now. There is no pilot shortage. There will not be a pilot shortage any time soon. Right now, there's at least 1,200 extremely qualified AA guys out on the street. Probably another 2,000 guys at UAL, CAL, NWA and US who are on some sort of long term leave, including military leave.

Think in terms of supply and demand. Although it's true that the regionals have drastically lowered hiring mins compared to 20 years ago, you also need to keep in mind that pay is still horribly low. When there's a true shortage, pay will increase. Over the past 7 years, pay has only decreased. That seems to indicate a surplus of pilots.

I guess the length of this downturn will also depend on how many furloughs from the majors actually return to flying. My guess is that many will just leave. I also think we'll see many senior guys take early retirement. Many may want to work past 60, but I bet most won't work until 65. Just a hunch. I could be wrong though.

500 TT

Wow with that time it may be better to go into a field of study that offers a better future.

With the b. boomers era you have an outstanding salary and job security at any sort of finance advisory occupation.

Not to steer you clear of a dream, but just read the boards of furloughs, high hopes, and time away from families etc.

Good point about the baby boomers....if I had to do it again I'd bail on this flying business and get into the funeral home business. Lots of money in it, and as long as people continue to grow old and die, you'll never lose your job.