If Russian invasion leads to war how will this affect airlines
08-10-2008, 03:57 PM
#11
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Posts: 216
Originally Posted by ⌐ AV8OR WANNABE
Olympic Games – what a perfect timing to deflect the international public opinion. 
08-10-2008, 04:00 PM
#12
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Originally Posted by ⌐ AV8OR WANNABE
Technically they really invaded South Ossetia which really isn't part of Georgia. Its kinda of a defacto gov not even internationally recognized. The media other gov's make it out to be an invasion of Georgia. Most of the South Ossetians are actually pro russia. In fact this whole thing orginated because of a conflict between russians peace keepers and georgia military in the area. Who knows who fired first.
They ARE part of Georgia AND the South Ossetia de facto government isn't recognized anywhere (except Russia) because the world views that provice as an integral part of Georgia. Russia is trying to change that as they want South Ossetia for themselves.
The main reason a majority of "South Ossetians" are pro Russian is because most of them are not Ossetians but Russians. When Georgia became a democracy, applied for the EU and NATO membership the Russians got very upset they were losing the influence in the region. So they beefed up the so called "peace keepers" (trippled in size) who are basically Russian army and special ops soldiers who moved to the area right after the Soviet Union fell apart. At the time there was a conflict that the Russians instigated where they forced thousands of Georgians to ‘temporarily’ leave the area to preserve peace. Now we know better - in effect they clensed the area of all Georgians and moved in thousands of Russians into the area in the form of so called “peace keepers.”
Also, the Russian government gave Russian citizenship to anyone in South Ossetia who wished to get one. Imagine if Cuba tried to annex southern Florida and the Cuban government gave automatic Cuban citizenship to any Southern Florida resident - against all international rules but hey this is Russia and they got oil and gas so they can get away with murder.
So basically first they moved in thousands of Russian soldiers calling them 'peace keepers", then they allowed those soldiers to permanently resettle in the area and to bring their families with them while giving them substantial tax incentives. Then they gave Russian citizenship to all South Ossetians (even though they all have Georgian citizenships). Many Ossetians accepted the Russian citizenship because the province is very impoverished and the Russians flooded the area with freebies such as food discounts, free electricity, etc. - All to alienate the province from Georgia even more.
This has happened before. In 1939 the Germans dressed in Polish army uniforms attacked several villages in Poland looking for a pretext to "defend" the German minority in Poland. A few months later Germany invaded Poland and once the whole country was occupied they claimed big parts of the Polish territory as German lands.
Russia is basically repeating the same process. Amazing - the word’s largest country yet they always want more. Some 30 % of Finland’s prewar territory is today occupied by Russia, 10% of Estonia’s and Latvia’s territories are today in Russia as well. Russia still occupies several Japanese islands they captured after the end of WWII.
Throughout the centuries, whether led by a Tsar, a communist leader or a so called democratic president they've always hungered for more land.
I give it 2-4 months before Russia claims that the population of South Ossetia is asking to be incorporated into the Russian Federation and that Russia is allowing that to happen to defend its "citizens.". Then they’ll go after Abhazia (another part of Georgia), Crimea (southeastern part of Ukraine), will force a “volunteer” admission of Belarus into Russia, etc, etc. Putin’s years of training in KGB are now bearing fruit.
They ARE part of Georgia AND the South Ossetia de facto government isn't recognized anywhere (except Russia) because the world views that provice as an integral part of Georgia. Russia is trying to change that as they want South Ossetia for themselves.
The main reason a majority of "South Ossetians" are pro Russian is because most of them are not Ossetians but Russians. When Georgia became a democracy, applied for the EU and NATO membership the Russians got very upset they were losing the influence in the region. So they beefed up the so called "peace keepers" (trippled in size) who are basically Russian army and special ops soldiers who moved to the area right after the Soviet Union fell apart. At the time there was a conflict that the Russians instigated where they forced thousands of Georgians to ‘temporarily’ leave the area to preserve peace. Now we know better - in effect they clensed the area of all Georgians and moved in thousands of Russians into the area in the form of so called “peace keepers.”
Also, the Russian government gave Russian citizenship to anyone in South Ossetia who wished to get one. Imagine if Cuba tried to annex southern Florida and the Cuban government gave automatic Cuban citizenship to any Southern Florida resident - against all international rules but hey this is Russia and they got oil and gas so they can get away with murder.
So basically first they moved in thousands of Russian soldiers calling them 'peace keepers", then they allowed those soldiers to permanently resettle in the area and to bring their families with them while giving them substantial tax incentives. Then they gave Russian citizenship to all South Ossetians (even though they all have Georgian citizenships). Many Ossetians accepted the Russian citizenship because the province is very impoverished and the Russians flooded the area with freebies such as food discounts, free electricity, etc. - All to alienate the province from Georgia even more.
This has happened before. In 1939 the Germans dressed in Polish army uniforms attacked several villages in Poland looking for a pretext to "defend" the German minority in Poland. A few months later Germany invaded Poland and once the whole country was occupied they claimed big parts of the Polish territory as German lands.
Russia is basically repeating the same process. Amazing - the word’s largest country yet they always want more. Some 30 % of Finland’s prewar territory is today occupied by Russia, 10% of Estonia’s and Latvia’s territories are today in Russia as well. Russia still occupies several Japanese islands they captured after the end of WWII.
Throughout the centuries, whether led by a Tsar, a communist leader or a so called democratic president they've always hungered for more land.
I give it 2-4 months before Russia claims that the population of South Ossetia is asking to be incorporated into the Russian Federation and that Russia is allowing that to happen to defend its "citizens.". Then they’ll go after Abhazia (another part of Georgia), Crimea (southeastern part of Ukraine), will force a “volunteer” admission of Belarus into Russia, etc, etc. Putin’s years of training in KGB are now bearing fruit.
WELL SAID YOU HOLD THE TRUE ON YOUR FINGER TIPS, RUSSIA IS INCREDIBLE, IT SHOULD BE JUDGE AS CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY!!!!!!!!
08-10-2008, 04:30 PM
#13
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Joined APC: Jan 2007
Posts: 295
Originally Posted by ERJ135
I think the US and the rest of the world would and should bend to Russians. They are a veto power at the UN. Probably best not anger them too much. Also, its not like there invading France of Germany. Technically they really invaded South Ossetia which really isn't part of Georgia.
.Well then perhaps we should get out of the UN. Russian UN veto power issue solved.
As far as the real issue, that of Russia invading another country, how is this any different than Saddam Hussein doing the same with Kuwait? If I recall, most of the rest of the world pretty much banded together, ran down every diplomatic road available to no avail, then kicked his ass. Unfortunately I do not see the same outcome here. This is scary stuff, and yes, it was initial conflict between two small countries that started two world wars. So perhaps that should be considered as Russia bombs the civilian airport in Georgia's Capital.
08-10-2008, 05:03 PM
#17
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Joined APC: Jan 2006
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Posts: 39,268
Originally Posted by J Dawg
You're joking, right? We should bend to the Russians, because they have veto power at the UN .
Well then perhaps we should get out of the UN. Russian UN veto power issue solved.
As far as the real issue, that of Russia invading another country, how is this any different than Saddam Hussein doing the same with Kuwait? If I recall, most of the rest of the world pretty much banded together, ran down every diplomatic road available to no avail, then kicked his ass. Unfortunately I do not see the same outcome here. This is scary stuff, and yes, it was initial conflict between two small countries that started two world wars. So perhaps that should be considered as Russia bombs the civilian airport in Georgia's Capital.
.Well then perhaps we should get out of the UN. Russian UN veto power issue solved.
As far as the real issue, that of Russia invading another country, how is this any different than Saddam Hussein doing the same with Kuwait? If I recall, most of the rest of the world pretty much banded together, ran down every diplomatic road available to no avail, then kicked his ass. Unfortunately I do not see the same outcome here. This is scary stuff, and yes, it was initial conflict between two small countries that started two world wars. So perhaps that should be considered as Russia bombs the civilian airport in Georgia's Capital.
I rarely make absolute statements, but I will in this case: We are not going to war with Russia over Georgia, and neither is NATO.
That is about as likely as Russia going to war with us over Iraq.
08-10-2008, 05:07 PM
#18
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Joined APC: Feb 2008
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Posts: 771
Originally Posted by ⌐ AV8OR WANNABE
This has happened before. In 1939 the Germans dressed in Polish army uniforms attacked several villages in Poland looking for a pretext to "defend" the German minority in Poland. A few months later Germany invaded Poland and once the whole country was occupied they claimed big parts of the Polish territory as German lands.
Russia is crossing the line with this. Sending tanks and troops into Georgian cities as well as bombing Georgian airfields is going outside of their BS pretext of "protecting Russian citizens". The farther a country is from Russia the better off they are. Russians can care less about South Ossetia and Abkhazia, they are in it for their own personal interests like the pipeline running through Abkhazia, and the virtual territory gains they would get with these 2 provinces becomming independant, they would become Russian puppets. Sick and tired of Russias imperialistic and barbaric campaign that they have been leading for a hundred years now. 2,000 civilians reportedly already dead.
08-10-2008, 05:10 PM
#19
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Joined APC: Oct 2005
Position: E170/175 CA
Posts: 334
Georgia has something besides land that the Russians want- an oil pipeline. There is a resource war brewing out there. Iraq was our first fired shot. Russia and China have been marking new territories for themselves as well. Be it north pole sea floors, or investments in Africa, the map of the world is being redrawn. Leaders of the major developed and developing nations are starting to realize that useful natural resources are finite in quantity, and everyone is in a rush to assume a position of control over the distribution of those resources. While oil still is traded openly despite nation of origin (for the most part), having control over that crude is infinitely important when supplies become tight.
Oil is likely near peak. We will never know the peak of oil until it has passed, and the factors that will determine peak oil are constantly changing (developing nations, emerging economies, alternative energy technologies). However, I think most superpowers are keenly aware that peak oil is real. We have tried to preserve our domestic oil supply by capping wells, not exploring land leases, and not marketing oil supplies that are more difficult to produce (shale, sands). We are also making an effort to increase our strategic oil reserve levels, and actually increase the capacity of our SPR cave system. To take the strain off of domestic demand, we have fostered relations with questionable Middle Eastern producers and done their dirty work (Gulf Wars 1 and 2) in order to stay in good standing, and to physically control other direct supplies of oil. Iran is developing nuclear technologies to reduce their domestic demand, and to build weapons to deter foreign oil liberators.
Our competitors (Russia, in this case) does not want to fall behind. They will try to make Iraq style land grabs in oil-important nations to secure their access to oil. Oil fuels our war machines. Our war machines secure our place in the world. Oil is security. Georgia is just another temporary headline in what will become a very large part of our history and our future.
In answer to the original post, this conflict will itself have little impact on our airlines so long as the oil flowing through Georgian pipelines continues to flow onto the open markets. But with every new pipeline Russia controls, the more volatile the oil markets will become.
Oil is likely near peak. We will never know the peak of oil until it has passed, and the factors that will determine peak oil are constantly changing (developing nations, emerging economies, alternative energy technologies). However, I think most superpowers are keenly aware that peak oil is real. We have tried to preserve our domestic oil supply by capping wells, not exploring land leases, and not marketing oil supplies that are more difficult to produce (shale, sands). We are also making an effort to increase our strategic oil reserve levels, and actually increase the capacity of our SPR cave system. To take the strain off of domestic demand, we have fostered relations with questionable Middle Eastern producers and done their dirty work (Gulf Wars 1 and 2) in order to stay in good standing, and to physically control other direct supplies of oil. Iran is developing nuclear technologies to reduce their domestic demand, and to build weapons to deter foreign oil liberators.
Our competitors (Russia, in this case) does not want to fall behind. They will try to make Iraq style land grabs in oil-important nations to secure their access to oil. Oil fuels our war machines. Our war machines secure our place in the world. Oil is security. Georgia is just another temporary headline in what will become a very large part of our history and our future.
In answer to the original post, this conflict will itself have little impact on our airlines so long as the oil flowing through Georgian pipelines continues to flow onto the open markets. But with every new pipeline Russia controls, the more volatile the oil markets will become.
08-10-2008, 05:18 PM
#20
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Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: DAL Pilot
Posts: 1,133
Originally Posted by mooney
Won't be a factor. Patrick Swayze will come out of hiding with 5 or 6 of his high school buddies and take them out well before ATL.
Last edited by Cycle Pilot; 08-10-2008 at 05:32 PM.
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