Eclipse
 

Hand writing on the wall ?

Forecast Predicts Eclipse 500 Shutdown | AVIATION WEEK

The crux of the matter is:

"...The business jet market overall is also entering a period in which demand is expected to contract sharply in the near term, cutting sales for every participant in the VLJ market..."

When the economy is down, spending on premium services such as air taxi services will be down as well.

Eclipse represents a sign of the times in the present age. They had a great product with the first VLJ, and a strong business model based on good reasoning, but one which requires a strong climate in which to succeed. The gamble Eclipse made was for an economy that would hold up long enough to sell the jets it had on backlog as pre-orders while it progressed into "economies of scale" as the venture matured. There was a host of teething pains as we know, Vern Rabun's departure as an example; but the real danger for Eclipse was the downturned economy which represented an inescapable death sentence because luxury items go south when people are worried about cash. It will be a miracle if the company survives at this point. The lesson is that anyone can make a good airplane, but only the truly fortunate can make one that is truly successful.

Eclipse will have to go Chapter 11, dump the contracts to deliver at the $1.52 million price and start selling at a realistic $2.15 million.

Of course, the 2,000 airplane backlog will become less than 200 when it's all said and done.

Haven't seen it on the national news, but Eclipse employees where told today (11/13/08) they they would not be paid for the last 2.5 weeks worth of work.

KOB.com - Unpaid Eclipse employees worry about future

The 500 was a fun jet to fly, and i was looking for ward to the 400. :(

The economy has hit everyone pretty hard. However, Eclipe's problems started well before. They took a Microsoft approach to the aviation market, figuring that you could quickly release a product and fix the big issues later.

It's over :(

KOB.com - Eclipse seeking Chapter 7 bankruptcy

I just read an interesting article on this situation. Not really a shame if you think about it. Those who have airplanes have worthless airplanes that are less than capable at best. They can get their airplanes up to par but it will need a very costly list of mods and who is going to even do them? Others who put down deposits and are waiting will be out of the money completely unless they get lucky with this chapter 7 which it doesnt look like.

Looking deeper look at companies like Linear air who practically bet their existence on this VLJ..I do not know the numbers but they had a lot of money in this deal and ended up with only 2 or so of the early model worthless jets.

One of my college pals put down deposits on 5 of them and I bet he is having a bad day right about now. He never got a single airplane. The EclipseJet was going to be the bread and butter bird for the air taxi industry, and even if they can swing the loss they still have to find a jet at a time when banks are hoarding most of the money they have. EclipseJet turned out to be a false hope for these companies, and along with the recession it may kill the entire industry.

Agreed. Eclipse sealed their own fate even before the strong economic downturn. The list of problems (avionics, mechanical issues) did not help its cause. Had Eclipse rolled out a more reliable product, they may have had a chance. I agree, the economy didnt help, but even now the Eclipse would have been a viable low cost (in comparison to other light jets) option for private companies/charter operators and could have survived this economic turmoil. The jet was a great idea that became a sub-par product.

That's funny that you use the Microsoft analogy. Weren't they actively involved in the company in some way? Or one of their senior execs?? I know the flight deck software was originally slated to be a microsoft product. Great idea executed poorly....

Where is Vern Raeburn now? Anyone know?

It's "Raburn", not Raeburn. And it's none of anyone's business where he's at.

Eclipse will continue to live on and will continue to be a good aircraft. Mods will be completed despite this mess. Company assets are now on the cheap. There is money to be made supporting these aircraft. There are 250 jets out there.

You are correct. Eclipse has a good product which will remain in demand to air taxi services etc. Now's the time to buy them. Anyone have a spare 50 mil??

Are you an investor? Your point of view is shared by what seems to be less than 10% of the industry.

Phil Friedman, CEO of Harlow Aerostructures has or will very soon bid on Eclipse's remaining assets. Harlow has been in the aerospace industry since 1954.

The "500" has a great price-point, like any other child...and a business is essentially a child, unless disiplined correctly it will grow to be un-productive. So much for my metaphores.

Friedman has a proven track-record.

I'm more concerned with what Textron's going to do next.

It also has a myriad of problems, that do not have simple solutions.

...Meaning?

Textron is struggling like so many tech stocks are these days, they peaked at about $75 a share last year and this year they have actually been threatened with getting delisted on the stock exchange due to the drastic loss in value; I think it's around $5 now. So they are struggling. They have said in recent statements they are not ready to sell any core assets and the useless financial arm is gone already. You should refer to their own statements. But I have heard not a word about bankruptcy, selling any core assets, or any their having any interest in buying more assets.

I've heard they (Textron) may spin-off Cessna AND Bell, but who knows. Lots of naysayers. May not be too bad an idea considering whats going on with 100LL. With "Swift" fuel weighing in at 7lbs per gallon (compared to 100LL at 6) Cessna's going to have to re-configure aerodynamic weight ratios. What do you think Cub?

And I am among them. The news flash about Textron might sell this and might sell that is not supported by their public statements, and in fact the idea was negated publicly by CEO Lewis Campbell.

I am honestly caught a little out of the loop on the Swift fuel subject. Thanks for the heads up, and it sounds like a great fuel. I have several friends from Purdue's graduate aerospace school but no one mentioned it. Apparently John Rusek is an adjunct professor which means basically he just does research and doesn't teach very much. Aerodynamic weight ratios as you call them are not adjustable after the values are set for a particular aircraft design, although you are correct that they are connected. Aircraft thrust to drag and weight to lift ratios are chosen and finalized after extensive work with goal-seeking iterative equations. You do not adjust them very much after the design values are found. This stage is finished very early in the design cycle.

Some thoughts on this subject:

1) Although aircraft design is very generally very weight sensitive, I do not by any means think there will be a huge impact on existing GA aircraft designs from a 17% increase in the fuel weight, IF the fuel is in use by 2011. It will have to come out of the useful load, but it is the same thing as adding 17% more fuel to the airplane which is not earthshaking at all. It will have little consequence although certain things will need to be addressed in operating manuals so people do not overlaod the airplanes. The saving grace is where the fuel is located, right around the CG.

2) No data has been produced by Lycoming or Continental or any other engine brands on whether this stuff is actually good for engines. Just having a high octane rating is promising, but we need the engine manufacturers to bless it with extensive testing before it's ok. The FAA as far as I know is not capable of comprehensive testing of piston engines although they have some labs here and there.

3) Biofuel is a great thing but the overall cost has not been proven less than it is for petroleum products. The verdict is still out from most parties on whether ethanol actually saves any money when all the costs are added from land use to loss in food crops to additional infrastructure. Of course, Swift fuel would offers advantages in renewability and reduced toxicity over avgas, but the market will negate anything that is not cost-effective.

If you are making this point then I agree, Swift fuel is an unknown quantity right now and the continued viability of General Aviation may be troublesome if it turns out it is more expensive than 100LL. Of course GA is always assured a place in the market because you need small aircraft for many purposes besides luxury goods. Cessna as a major asset of Textron is not by any means dependent on piston sales, as witnessed by their success during the 1985-1995 era in which they made none at all.

Kinda touchy about Raburn,aren't we? I think anyone who is interestedin the success or failure of a company like Eclipse deserves to know the facts

The eclipse is sort of a BLING BLING sort of thing. Even though it was a nice jet, I kind of looked at it as the poor mans jet. In my opinion, if you can't afford to buy a citation (even if you don't need the extra space, hence the Eclipse) then you can't afford to own a jet, period. Many people don't understand that.

It wasn't a nice jet! It was a tiny airplane that couldn't meet the performance requirements of the Certification rules. It was a pipedream that never had functional avionics. It was ...........I don't even have the energy for this....

Eclipse might be up and running again.

Evening Webcast: July 31, 2009 | KRQE News 13 New Mexico

More on the resurrection of Eclipse from AOPA...

"Eclipse offers refurbishment program."

Calling it “Total Eclipse,” meaning it has all the features originally promised by the former owners, the new owners of Eclipse have rolled out a factory refurbishment program. The Total Eclipse program marks the completion of the final design of the original EA500 aircraft. In September 2009, Eclipse Aerospace Inc. embarked on a mission to finish the design and promised capabilities of the breakthrough Eclipse 500. The EA500 jet now includes FIKI (flight into known icing) and a GPS-coupled autopilot.

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