Bastian thinks low oil worth $5B to DAL
12-02-2008, 10:14 AM
#11
Happy to be here
Joined APC: Jun 2006
Position: A-320A
Posts: 18,563
Originally Posted by ⌐ AV8OR WANNABE
A week or so ago when I was in Tokyo I read a very interesting yet sobering article in a business oriented newspaper (can't remember the name of it but the paper was written in British English - not Financial Times).
The gist of the article was that the current rise in the value of the US dollar is very temporary at best. The dollar rose simply because it's still the currency of choice in the times of crisis, however the author who's also a senior currency trader in London, predicted that a year or so from now we won't see a decline but rather a major collapse of the dollar.
I was surprised to read that but he basically implied that once the astronomical levels of the new bailout debt sink in, combined with the staggering national debt we already have and the Obama's pro-spending "any and all" job creation drive (including more government jobs
) - the floor will simply fall from underneath us.
I was surprised to read that because I felt that the US dollar has been one tiny beacon of hope as of lately, however if he's right then the beacon of hope won't last much longer.
I hope he's wrong but in the prelude to the article it was explained that in the past he'd correctly predicted major currency devaluations such as the British pound, Italian lira, Korean Won, etc, etc.
The gist of the article was that the current rise in the value of the US dollar is very temporary at best. The dollar rose simply because it's still the currency of choice in the times of crisis, however the author who's also a senior currency trader in London, predicted that a year or so from now we won't see a decline but rather a major collapse of the dollar.
I was surprised to read that but he basically implied that once the astronomical levels of the new bailout debt sink in, combined with the staggering national debt we already have and the Obama's pro-spending "any and all" job creation drive (including more government jobs
) - the floor will simply fall from underneath us. I was surprised to read that because I felt that the US dollar has been one tiny beacon of hope as of lately, however if he's right then the beacon of hope won't last much longer.
I hope he's wrong but in the prelude to the article it was explained that in the past he'd correctly predicted major currency devaluations such as the British pound, Italian lira, Korean Won, etc, etc.
12-02-2008, 10:37 AM
#12
Che Guevara
Joined APC: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,408
Originally Posted by ⌐ AV8OR WANNABE
A week or so ago when I was in Tokyo I read a very interesting yet sobering article in a business oriented newspaper (can't remember the name of it but the paper was written in British English - not Financial Times).
The gist of the article was that the current rise in the value of the US dollar is very temporary at best. The dollar rose simply because it's still the currency of choice in the times of crisis, however the author who's also a senior currency trader in London, predicted that a year or so from now we won't see a decline but rather a major collapse of the dollar.
I was surprised to read that but he basically implied that once the astronomical levels of the new bailout debt sink in, combined with the staggering national debt we already have and the Obama's pro-spending "any and all" job creation drive (including more government jobs) - the floor will simply fall from underneath us.
I was surprised to read that because I felt that the US dollar has been one tiny beacon of hope as of lately, however if he's right then the beacon of hope won't last much longer.
I hope he's wrong but in the prelude to the article it was explained that in the past he'd correctly predicted major currency devaluations such as the British pound, Italian lira, Korean Won, etc, etc.
The gist of the article was that the current rise in the value of the US dollar is very temporary at best. The dollar rose simply because it's still the currency of choice in the times of crisis, however the author who's also a senior currency trader in London, predicted that a year or so from now we won't see a decline but rather a major collapse of the dollar.
I was surprised to read that but he basically implied that once the astronomical levels of the new bailout debt sink in, combined with the staggering national debt we already have and the Obama's pro-spending "any and all" job creation drive (including more government jobs
) - the floor will simply fall from underneath us. I was surprised to read that because I felt that the US dollar has been one tiny beacon of hope as of lately, however if he's right then the beacon of hope won't last much longer.
I hope he's wrong but in the prelude to the article it was explained that in the past he'd correctly predicted major currency devaluations such as the British pound, Italian lira, Korean Won, etc, etc.
12-02-2008, 04:02 PM
#13
Line Holder
Joined APC: Oct 2008
Posts: 59
Forex markets can be extremely volatile and therefore hard to predict. A global recession is the current reason for the flight to the Dollar. The Dollar (treasury securities) are always seen as the safest bet in a struggling economy. As a global recovery begins, you may see a sell off of Dollars, but barring high amounts of speculation, hopefully we will see only a slight slide of the dollar.
As for commodities like our favorite, crude oil... a realistic price increase will hopefully only see oil double into next summer (if that) from current prices (assuming we are in a recovery at that point). It is hard to believe that $148 oil was driven by anything other than speculation in the commodities futures.
Toiletduck nailed it when saying Cash is King in today's market... Just ask the executives of AIG, GM, Ford, Chrysler, Citibank, etc, etc... Tough for an airline company to survive without being able to service short term debt and simple obligations like paying pilots...
As for commodities like our favorite, crude oil... a realistic price increase will hopefully only see oil double into next summer (if that) from current prices (assuming we are in a recovery at that point). It is hard to believe that $148 oil was driven by anything other than speculation in the commodities futures.
Toiletduck nailed it when saying Cash is King in today's market... Just ask the executives of AIG, GM, Ford, Chrysler, Citibank, etc, etc... Tough for an airline company to survive without being able to service short term debt and simple obligations like paying pilots...
12-02-2008, 08:14 PM
#14
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,333
Originally Posted by acl65pilot
One thing that I have learned from reading all of these foreign economist is this. They all hope for the demise of the dollar and America in general...
Numerous US economists view America of today in worst terms than many foreign economists. No one hopes for the demise of the dollar as it would hurt many businesses around the world; a slow, very gradual currency appreciation or depreciation is what most economists prefer.
When someone has a bearish view on the US dollar because of the huge amount of debt we have as a nation, he/she is simply expressing his view on the subject. After all, the author of the article was doing currency trading for a living.
To say he and others like him simply wish America's demise is a pretty close-minded way of looking at things. Maybe I misunderstood your comment but at least that's how I took it.
12-02-2008, 08:20 PM
#15
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Joined APC: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,333
Originally Posted by 3wire
... As a global recovery begins, you may see a sell off of Dollars, but barring high amounts of speculation, hopefully we will see only a slight slide of the dollar...
12-02-2008, 08:36 PM
#16
Che Guevara
Joined APC: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,408
The collapse of the US dollar would lead to a collapse of currency across the world.
12-02-2008, 09:36 PM
#17
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Joined APC: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,333
Originally Posted by ToiletDuck
The collapse of the US dollar would lead to a collapse of currency across the world.
He wasn't predicting the dollar would disappear but rather collapse in the terms of value. I've seen with my own eyes what an overnight 30% devaluation can do to a country's economy and his article scared me because basically that's what he's predicting - not a slow but rather a sudden drop in the dollar's value.
12-02-2008, 10:31 PM
#18
Che Guevara
Joined APC: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,408
Originally Posted by ⌐ AV8OR WANNABE
Which one?
12-03-2008, 04:06 AM
#19
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Posts: 1,045
Our current unipolarity will remain with the US being a hegemon for some time. The importance of the US on the world economy will continue to decrease and coming to that realization will be difficult for many. We may encounter a system of multipolarity in the future but I still think it's a long way off.
AL
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Last edited by alvrb211; 12-03-2008 at 04:16 AM.
12-03-2008, 06:29 AM
#20
Che Guevara
Joined APC: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,408
Originally Posted by alvrb211
Our current unipolarity will remain with the US being a hegemon for some time. The importance of the US on the world economy will continue to decrease and coming to that realization will be difficult for many. We may encounter a system of multipolarity in the future but I still think it's a long way off.
AL
AL
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